Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will strengthen across southern California. Over portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and modest RH reductions could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, recent rainfall and the modest RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will strengthen across southern California. Over portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and modest RH reductions could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, recent rainfall and the modest RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will strengthen across southern California. Over portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and modest RH reductions could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, recent rainfall and the modest RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will strengthen across southern California. Over portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and modest RH reductions could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, recent rainfall and the modest RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. ..Moore.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. ..Moore.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. ..Moore.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. ..Moore.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. ..Moore.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. ..Moore.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will prevail over the CONUS, with multiple lower amplitude disturbances crossing the Midwest/Southeast amidst phasing westerlies over the eastern third of the CONUS. Cool/stable continental trajectories will largely limit deep convective potential, with a potential exception being the coastal Southeast states. ...Northwest/West-Central Florida Peninsula... Owing to weak cyclogenesis from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across the northern Florida Peninsula later today, a warm/moist sector will expand eastward across much of the Peninsula. This will be as hodographs lengthen owing to strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly winds, particularly in the 1-3 km AGL layer. However, questions still linger regarding the quality/depth of the inland-progressing moist layer, as well as the likelihood of lingering mid-level capping over the Peninsula. Current thinking is that while some strong/rotating storms may occur off the west/northwest coast of Florida, severe-storm potential should remain limited over inland areas. Subsequent outlooks will continue to reevaluate any potential need for low tornado and/or wind-related severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will prevail over the CONUS, with multiple lower amplitude disturbances crossing the Midwest/Southeast amidst phasing westerlies over the eastern third of the CONUS. Cool/stable continental trajectories will largely limit deep convective potential, with a potential exception being the coastal Southeast states. ...Northwest/West-Central Florida Peninsula... Owing to weak cyclogenesis from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across the northern Florida Peninsula later today, a warm/moist sector will expand eastward across much of the Peninsula. This will be as hodographs lengthen owing to strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly winds, particularly in the 1-3 km AGL layer. However, questions still linger regarding the quality/depth of the inland-progressing moist layer, as well as the likelihood of lingering mid-level capping over the Peninsula. Current thinking is that while some strong/rotating storms may occur off the west/northwest coast of Florida, severe-storm potential should remain limited over inland areas. Subsequent outlooks will continue to reevaluate any potential need for low tornado and/or wind-related severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will prevail over the CONUS, with multiple lower amplitude disturbances crossing the Midwest/Southeast amidst phasing westerlies over the eastern third of the CONUS. Cool/stable continental trajectories will largely limit deep convective potential, with a potential exception being the coastal Southeast states. ...Northwest/West-Central Florida Peninsula... Owing to weak cyclogenesis from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across the northern Florida Peninsula later today, a warm/moist sector will expand eastward across much of the Peninsula. This will be as hodographs lengthen owing to strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly winds, particularly in the 1-3 km AGL layer. However, questions still linger regarding the quality/depth of the inland-progressing moist layer, as well as the likelihood of lingering mid-level capping over the Peninsula. Current thinking is that while some strong/rotating storms may occur off the west/northwest coast of Florida, severe-storm potential should remain limited over inland areas. Subsequent outlooks will continue to reevaluate any potential need for low tornado and/or wind-related severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will prevail over the CONUS, with multiple lower amplitude disturbances crossing the Midwest/Southeast amidst phasing westerlies over the eastern third of the CONUS. Cool/stable continental trajectories will largely limit deep convective potential, with a potential exception being the coastal Southeast states. ...Northwest/West-Central Florida Peninsula... Owing to weak cyclogenesis from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across the northern Florida Peninsula later today, a warm/moist sector will expand eastward across much of the Peninsula. This will be as hodographs lengthen owing to strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly winds, particularly in the 1-3 km AGL layer. However, questions still linger regarding the quality/depth of the inland-progressing moist layer, as well as the likelihood of lingering mid-level capping over the Peninsula. Current thinking is that while some strong/rotating storms may occur off the west/northwest coast of Florida, severe-storm potential should remain limited over inland areas. Subsequent outlooks will continue to reevaluate any potential need for low tornado and/or wind-related severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will prevail over the CONUS, with multiple lower amplitude disturbances crossing the Midwest/Southeast amidst phasing westerlies over the eastern third of the CONUS. Cool/stable continental trajectories will largely limit deep convective potential, with a potential exception being the coastal Southeast states. ...Northwest/West-Central Florida Peninsula... Owing to weak cyclogenesis from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across the northern Florida Peninsula later today, a warm/moist sector will expand eastward across much of the Peninsula. This will be as hodographs lengthen owing to strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly winds, particularly in the 1-3 km AGL layer. However, questions still linger regarding the quality/depth of the inland-progressing moist layer, as well as the likelihood of lingering mid-level capping over the Peninsula. Current thinking is that while some strong/rotating storms may occur off the west/northwest coast of Florida, severe-storm potential should remain limited over inland areas. Subsequent outlooks will continue to reevaluate any potential need for low tornado and/or wind-related severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/26/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, the large upper trough over the East will begin to lift out, with height rises over much of the region. The upper low will remain over Hudson Bay, with features rotating around the west side of the low and into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to affect AZ and NM overnight and into Thursday/D5. This southern wave will proceed into the southern Plains on Thursday/D5, with good model agreement. Height falls and lift will occur over much of TX, OK and KS, and toward the middle MS Valley by the end of the day. Moisture will return north across eastern TX and toward the ArkLaTex with 60s F dewpoints, and 50s as far north as central MO. Low pressure will develop from northern TX into MO through Friday/D6 morning, aided by a broad fetch of theta-e advection around 850 mb. Given the antecedent cool/dry air mass ahead of the moisture return, widespread clouds are likely, with poor low-level lapse rates. A few strong storms may occur during the day over eastern TX, with increasingly elevated instability farther north. General height rises are then forecast over much of the South Friday/D6 through Sunday/D8 as another possible shortwave trough moves across the Rockies. This pattern will favor showers and thunderstorms over much of the Southeast, and the next trough evolution will need to be monitored into next weekend as moisture will be in place along the Gulf Coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, the large upper trough over the East will begin to lift out, with height rises over much of the region. The upper low will remain over Hudson Bay, with features rotating around the west side of the low and into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to affect AZ and NM overnight and into Thursday/D5. This southern wave will proceed into the southern Plains on Thursday/D5, with good model agreement. Height falls and lift will occur over much of TX, OK and KS, and toward the middle MS Valley by the end of the day. Moisture will return north across eastern TX and toward the ArkLaTex with 60s F dewpoints, and 50s as far north as central MO. Low pressure will develop from northern TX into MO through Friday/D6 morning, aided by a broad fetch of theta-e advection around 850 mb. Given the antecedent cool/dry air mass ahead of the moisture return, widespread clouds are likely, with poor low-level lapse rates. A few strong storms may occur during the day over eastern TX, with increasingly elevated instability farther north. General height rises are then forecast over much of the South Friday/D6 through Sunday/D8 as another possible shortwave trough moves across the Rockies. This pattern will favor showers and thunderstorms over much of the Southeast, and the next trough evolution will need to be monitored into next weekend as moisture will be in place along the Gulf Coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, the large upper trough over the East will begin to lift out, with height rises over much of the region. The upper low will remain over Hudson Bay, with features rotating around the west side of the low and into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to affect AZ and NM overnight and into Thursday/D5. This southern wave will proceed into the southern Plains on Thursday/D5, with good model agreement. Height falls and lift will occur over much of TX, OK and KS, and toward the middle MS Valley by the end of the day. Moisture will return north across eastern TX and toward the ArkLaTex with 60s F dewpoints, and 50s as far north as central MO. Low pressure will develop from northern TX into MO through Friday/D6 morning, aided by a broad fetch of theta-e advection around 850 mb. Given the antecedent cool/dry air mass ahead of the moisture return, widespread clouds are likely, with poor low-level lapse rates. A few strong storms may occur during the day over eastern TX, with increasingly elevated instability farther north. General height rises are then forecast over much of the South Friday/D6 through Sunday/D8 as another possible shortwave trough moves across the Rockies. This pattern will favor showers and thunderstorms over much of the Southeast, and the next trough evolution will need to be monitored into next weekend as moisture will be in place along the Gulf Coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, the large upper trough over the East will begin to lift out, with height rises over much of the region. The upper low will remain over Hudson Bay, with features rotating around the west side of the low and into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to affect AZ and NM overnight and into Thursday/D5. This southern wave will proceed into the southern Plains on Thursday/D5, with good model agreement. Height falls and lift will occur over much of TX, OK and KS, and toward the middle MS Valley by the end of the day. Moisture will return north across eastern TX and toward the ArkLaTex with 60s F dewpoints, and 50s as far north as central MO. Low pressure will develop from northern TX into MO through Friday/D6 morning, aided by a broad fetch of theta-e advection around 850 mb. Given the antecedent cool/dry air mass ahead of the moisture return, widespread clouds are likely, with poor low-level lapse rates. A few strong storms may occur during the day over eastern TX, with increasingly elevated instability farther north. General height rises are then forecast over much of the South Friday/D6 through Sunday/D8 as another possible shortwave trough moves across the Rockies. This pattern will favor showers and thunderstorms over much of the Southeast, and the next trough evolution will need to be monitored into next weekend as moisture will be in place along the Gulf Coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, the large upper trough over the East will begin to lift out, with height rises over much of the region. The upper low will remain over Hudson Bay, with features rotating around the west side of the low and into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to affect AZ and NM overnight and into Thursday/D5. This southern wave will proceed into the southern Plains on Thursday/D5, with good model agreement. Height falls and lift will occur over much of TX, OK and KS, and toward the middle MS Valley by the end of the day. Moisture will return north across eastern TX and toward the ArkLaTex with 60s F dewpoints, and 50s as far north as central MO. Low pressure will develop from northern TX into MO through Friday/D6 morning, aided by a broad fetch of theta-e advection around 850 mb. Given the antecedent cool/dry air mass ahead of the moisture return, widespread clouds are likely, with poor low-level lapse rates. A few strong storms may occur during the day over eastern TX, with increasingly elevated instability farther north. General height rises are then forecast over much of the South Friday/D6 through Sunday/D8 as another possible shortwave trough moves across the Rockies. This pattern will favor showers and thunderstorms over much of the Southeast, and the next trough evolution will need to be monitored into next weekend as moisture will be in place along the Gulf Coast. Read more