Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability concerns have increased for next weekend, which yields low confidence in confidently assessing severe potential across the Gulf Coast region. As one amplified shortwave trough shifts from the southern Appalachians off the Carolina Coast on D4, an upstream shortwave trough should dig across the Great Lakes towards the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States through D6. This will help maintain a relatively dry, northwesterly to westerly low-level flow regime over the eastern Gulf and FL. As the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaches the West Coast on D5, a series of embedded vorticity maxima and very fast mid/upper jet should overspread northern Mexico and the adjacent CONUS border area. While the broader guidance signal is for a negative-tilt shortwave trough to evolve into a potential closed low, spatiotemporal differences become pronounced heading into next weekend. Modified moisture return across the western Gulf should result in increasing thunder potential over at least TX late D6 into D7. Richer low-level moisture may be confined to just the TX coastal plain with a relatively limited spatiotemporal threat for severe around Saturday. This may shift east towards FL around next Sunday, but the large ensemble/deterministic spread at this time frame renders low confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability concerns have increased for next weekend, which yields low confidence in confidently assessing severe potential across the Gulf Coast region. As one amplified shortwave trough shifts from the southern Appalachians off the Carolina Coast on D4, an upstream shortwave trough should dig across the Great Lakes towards the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States through D6. This will help maintain a relatively dry, northwesterly to westerly low-level flow regime over the eastern Gulf and FL. As the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaches the West Coast on D5, a series of embedded vorticity maxima and very fast mid/upper jet should overspread northern Mexico and the adjacent CONUS border area. While the broader guidance signal is for a negative-tilt shortwave trough to evolve into a potential closed low, spatiotemporal differences become pronounced heading into next weekend. Modified moisture return across the western Gulf should result in increasing thunder potential over at least TX late D6 into D7. Richer low-level moisture may be confined to just the TX coastal plain with a relatively limited spatiotemporal threat for severe around Saturday. This may shift east towards FL around next Sunday, but the large ensemble/deterministic spread at this time frame renders low confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability concerns have increased for next weekend, which yields low confidence in confidently assessing severe potential across the Gulf Coast region. As one amplified shortwave trough shifts from the southern Appalachians off the Carolina Coast on D4, an upstream shortwave trough should dig across the Great Lakes towards the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States through D6. This will help maintain a relatively dry, northwesterly to westerly low-level flow regime over the eastern Gulf and FL. As the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaches the West Coast on D5, a series of embedded vorticity maxima and very fast mid/upper jet should overspread northern Mexico and the adjacent CONUS border area. While the broader guidance signal is for a negative-tilt shortwave trough to evolve into a potential closed low, spatiotemporal differences become pronounced heading into next weekend. Modified moisture return across the western Gulf should result in increasing thunder potential over at least TX late D6 into D7. Richer low-level moisture may be confined to just the TX coastal plain with a relatively limited spatiotemporal threat for severe around Saturday. This may shift east towards FL around next Sunday, but the large ensemble/deterministic spread at this time frame renders low confidence. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward on Monday into more of the Plains. While high surface pressure will remain in parts of the northern/central Rockies, the pressure pattern will become more diffuse from southern California into the southern Plains. Areas of dry conditions are probable, but light winds and poorly receptive fuels will continue to keep fire weather concerns minimal. ..Wendt.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward on Monday into more of the Plains. While high surface pressure will remain in parts of the northern/central Rockies, the pressure pattern will become more diffuse from southern California into the southern Plains. Areas of dry conditions are probable, but light winds and poorly receptive fuels will continue to keep fire weather concerns minimal. ..Wendt.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, digging from the Canadian Prairies into the Upper MS Valley by 12Z Tuesday, will continue southeastward towards the southern Appalachians through 12Z Wednesday. A broad surface ridge/embedded anticyclone will be maintained across the central Great Plains to the western Gulf Coast. Although airmass modification will ensue across the FL Straits, areas to the north/west off the South Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions will continue to hold 40s to low 50s surface dew points. With negligible buoyancy continuing across the CONUS, thunder is not anticipated. ..Grams.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, digging from the Canadian Prairies into the Upper MS Valley by 12Z Tuesday, will continue southeastward towards the southern Appalachians through 12Z Wednesday. A broad surface ridge/embedded anticyclone will be maintained across the central Great Plains to the western Gulf Coast. Although airmass modification will ensue across the FL Straits, areas to the north/west off the South Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions will continue to hold 40s to low 50s surface dew points. With negligible buoyancy continuing across the CONUS, thunder is not anticipated. ..Grams.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ..Wendt.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ..Wendt.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A dry continental air mass will envelop the western Atlantic off the East Coast, as well as the Gulf Basin, in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Sunday. Surface dew points in the 40s to low 50s will be common to the west/north of the Bahamas, as a surface anticyclone becomes anchored near the western Gulf Coast. Potential for buoyancy across the CONUS will be negligible and thunder is not anticipated. ..Grams.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A dry continental air mass will envelop the western Atlantic off the East Coast, as well as the Gulf Basin, in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Sunday. Surface dew points in the 40s to low 50s will be common to the west/north of the Bahamas, as a surface anticyclone becomes anchored near the western Gulf Coast. Potential for buoyancy across the CONUS will be negligible and thunder is not anticipated. ..Grams.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, with only an early morning chance of thunderstorms near the Mid Atlantic Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deepening upper low will move east from the OH Valley into New England today, with the upper trough sweeping eastward toward the Atlantic Coast by evening. Northwest flow aloft will then exist in the wake of this trough, from the Plains to the East Coast into Monday. At the surface, low pressure will be located over southeast VA at 12Z this morning, and will deepen as it moves quickly offshore. Strong and veering low-level winds will push the cold front offshore as well, with a maximum of 1-2 hours of warm sector over land from southeast VA into the eastern Carolinas this morning. Weak instability, perhaps up to 250 J/kg, may briefly support a few strong storms near the low or just south prior to moving offshore. Gusty winds may accompany any frontal convection as low-level SRH weakens due to the rapidly veering surface flow. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, with only an early morning chance of thunderstorms near the Mid Atlantic Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deepening upper low will move east from the OH Valley into New England today, with the upper trough sweeping eastward toward the Atlantic Coast by evening. Northwest flow aloft will then exist in the wake of this trough, from the Plains to the East Coast into Monday. At the surface, low pressure will be located over southeast VA at 12Z this morning, and will deepen as it moves quickly offshore. Strong and veering low-level winds will push the cold front offshore as well, with a maximum of 1-2 hours of warm sector over land from southeast VA into the eastern Carolinas this morning. Weak instability, perhaps up to 250 J/kg, may briefly support a few strong storms near the low or just south prior to moving offshore. Gusty winds may accompany any frontal convection as low-level SRH weakens due to the rapidly veering surface flow. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/28/2024 Read more

MD 0096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Areas affected...Carolina Piedmont Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 280044Z - 280245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms, with some low risk for a brief tornado or wind gust, will be noted across the Carolina Piedmont region this evening. DISCUSSION...Midlevel speed max is rotating through the base of the MS Valley trough and should translate across the southern Appalachians into the Piedmont region later tonight. In response to this feature, LLJ will increase markedly across SC into western VA by 06z which should encourage a slow northward advance of the warm front across this region. Latest diagnostic data suggests the boundary is currently draped from near FAY-CAE-Edgefield County SC. Continued recovery is expected across NC as the LLJ strengthens over the next few hours. Over the last few hours, several weak supercells have developed within the warm advection zone. This activity should remain focused across the Carolina Piedmont, especially along/just north of the aforementioned warm front. Any supercells that mature near the boundary could generate locally strong winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. However, current trends do not suggest the overall severe threat will warrant a watch. Will continue to monitor this region. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34198226 34718093 35408006 34967930 34008045 33578200 34198226 Read more