Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday/D5 with a large upper trough over eastern North America. By Thursday/D6, a lower-latitude wave is forecast to move into the southern Plains, proceeding toward the middle MS Valley into Friday/D7. As this feature approaches, low-level moisture will increase across TX on D6, then spread across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through Friday/D7. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, substantial cloudiness and a saturated boundary layer is likely to result in only modest destabilization and widespread rain. The greatest instability, and perhaps chance of isolated severe storms, will be on Thursday/D6 over TX as height falls overspread the moist sector. By the time this potential wave shifts into the MS Valley, it should interact with less instability, with little severe potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of South Florida on Monday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will affect the eastern CONUS on Monday, with the base of the trough over the Southeast. High pressure will maintain cool and stable conditions for much of the country, the exception will be just ahead of the cold front as it shifts south across the FL Peninsula. While a moist air mass will exist over FL, lift overall will be shallow, with instability limited by warm temperatures aloft. However, convergence during the afternoon will likely be maximized over southeastern parts of the Peninsula in a westerly flow regime aloft, and as the cold front intersects the eastern sea breeze. This may yield isolated thunderstorms, though non severe. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of South Florida on Monday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will affect the eastern CONUS on Monday, with the base of the trough over the Southeast. High pressure will maintain cool and stable conditions for much of the country, the exception will be just ahead of the cold front as it shifts south across the FL Peninsula. While a moist air mass will exist over FL, lift overall will be shallow, with instability limited by warm temperatures aloft. However, convergence during the afternoon will likely be maximized over southeastern parts of the Peninsula in a westerly flow regime aloft, and as the cold front intersects the eastern sea breeze. This may yield isolated thunderstorms, though non severe. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of South Florida on Monday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will affect the eastern CONUS on Monday, with the base of the trough over the Southeast. High pressure will maintain cool and stable conditions for much of the country, the exception will be just ahead of the cold front as it shifts south across the FL Peninsula. While a moist air mass will exist over FL, lift overall will be shallow, with instability limited by warm temperatures aloft. However, convergence during the afternoon will likely be maximized over southeastern parts of the Peninsula in a westerly flow regime aloft, and as the cold front intersects the eastern sea breeze. This may yield isolated thunderstorms, though non severe. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of South Florida on Monday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will affect the eastern CONUS on Monday, with the base of the trough over the Southeast. High pressure will maintain cool and stable conditions for much of the country, the exception will be just ahead of the cold front as it shifts south across the FL Peninsula. While a moist air mass will exist over FL, lift overall will be shallow, with instability limited by warm temperatures aloft. However, convergence during the afternoon will likely be maximized over southeastern parts of the Peninsula in a westerly flow regime aloft, and as the cold front intersects the eastern sea breeze. This may yield isolated thunderstorms, though non severe. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of South Florida on Monday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will affect the eastern CONUS on Monday, with the base of the trough over the Southeast. High pressure will maintain cool and stable conditions for much of the country, the exception will be just ahead of the cold front as it shifts south across the FL Peninsula. While a moist air mass will exist over FL, lift overall will be shallow, with instability limited by warm temperatures aloft. However, convergence during the afternoon will likely be maximized over southeastern parts of the Peninsula in a westerly flow regime aloft, and as the cold front intersects the eastern sea breeze. This may yield isolated thunderstorms, though non severe. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A relatively cool pattern will continue for much of the CONUS, with a strong shortwave trough moving from Plains into the East and another diving south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. High pressure will exist over land from the Mid Atlantic into the Plains and western states, with a weak surface trough moving east across the Gulf of Mexico and eventually FL. Any instability or threat of isolated thunderstorms will therefore be limited to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and perhaps near the coastal waters of FL. Forecast soundings over land indicate generally moist conditions with poor lapse rates, suggesting little lightning and perhaps somewhat shallow convection. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A relatively cool pattern will continue for much of the CONUS, with a strong shortwave trough moving from Plains into the East and another diving south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. High pressure will exist over land from the Mid Atlantic into the Plains and western states, with a weak surface trough moving east across the Gulf of Mexico and eventually FL. Any instability or threat of isolated thunderstorms will therefore be limited to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and perhaps near the coastal waters of FL. Forecast soundings over land indicate generally moist conditions with poor lapse rates, suggesting little lightning and perhaps somewhat shallow convection. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A relatively cool pattern will continue for much of the CONUS, with a strong shortwave trough moving from Plains into the East and another diving south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. High pressure will exist over land from the Mid Atlantic into the Plains and western states, with a weak surface trough moving east across the Gulf of Mexico and eventually FL. Any instability or threat of isolated thunderstorms will therefore be limited to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and perhaps near the coastal waters of FL. Forecast soundings over land indicate generally moist conditions with poor lapse rates, suggesting little lightning and perhaps somewhat shallow convection. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A relatively cool pattern will continue for much of the CONUS, with a strong shortwave trough moving from Plains into the East and another diving south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. High pressure will exist over land from the Mid Atlantic into the Plains and western states, with a weak surface trough moving east across the Gulf of Mexico and eventually FL. Any instability or threat of isolated thunderstorms will therefore be limited to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and perhaps near the coastal waters of FL. Forecast soundings over land indicate generally moist conditions with poor lapse rates, suggesting little lightning and perhaps somewhat shallow convection. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A relatively cool pattern will continue for much of the CONUS, with a strong shortwave trough moving from Plains into the East and another diving south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. High pressure will exist over land from the Mid Atlantic into the Plains and western states, with a weak surface trough moving east across the Gulf of Mexico and eventually FL. Any instability or threat of isolated thunderstorms will therefore be limited to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and perhaps near the coastal waters of FL. Forecast soundings over land indicate generally moist conditions with poor lapse rates, suggesting little lightning and perhaps somewhat shallow convection. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This will correspond to a tightening of the offshore pressure gradient over parts of southern California. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will strengthen compared to Day 1/Saturday, with a continuation of low RH. The dry/breezy conditions could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions (focused over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties); however, relatively cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally limit the fire-weather risk. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions will keep fire-weather concerns low. ..Weinman.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This will correspond to a tightening of the offshore pressure gradient over parts of southern California. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will strengthen compared to Day 1/Saturday, with a continuation of low RH. The dry/breezy conditions could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions (focused over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties); however, relatively cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally limit the fire-weather risk. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions will keep fire-weather concerns low. ..Weinman.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This will correspond to a tightening of the offshore pressure gradient over parts of southern California. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will strengthen compared to Day 1/Saturday, with a continuation of low RH. The dry/breezy conditions could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions (focused over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties); however, relatively cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally limit the fire-weather risk. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions will keep fire-weather concerns low. ..Weinman.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This will correspond to a tightening of the offshore pressure gradient over parts of southern California. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will strengthen compared to Day 1/Saturday, with a continuation of low RH. The dry/breezy conditions could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions (focused over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties); however, relatively cool surface temperatures and recent rainfall should generally limit the fire-weather risk. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions will keep fire-weather concerns low. ..Weinman.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more