Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas. ...TX... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline, centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau. Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards 12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from 500-1000 J/kg. The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters, with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a greater signal for this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise, some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for this time frame. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas. ...TX... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline, centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau. Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards 12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from 500-1000 J/kg. The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters, with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a greater signal for this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise, some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for this time frame. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas. ...TX... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline, centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau. Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards 12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from 500-1000 J/kg. The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters, with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a greater signal for this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise, some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for this time frame. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas. ...TX... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline, centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau. Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards 12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from 500-1000 J/kg. The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters, with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a greater signal for this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise, some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for this time frame. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of north-central to south Texas. ...TX... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from late afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of an increasingly fast mid/upper jet shifting east across Baja CA and northern Mexico. A highly diffluent flow regime, coupled with the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse across NM, will favor peak-heating thunderstorms along the Pacific cold front/dryline, centered on western north TX to the Edwards Plateau. Deep-layer shear/flow should be modest initially and more meridional with northern extent, before gradual strengthening occurs towards 12Z Saturday. Modified boundary-layer moisture return, while adequate for deep convection, appears unlikely to reach typical western Gulf quality with mid to upper 60s surface dew points staying offshore. As a result, peak MLCAPE will probably hold from 500-1000 J/kg. The net outcome of this setup should tend to yield several clusters, with short-lived discrete modes confined to the early convective life cycle. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening, with perhaps a greater signal for this in a mesoscale area centered on south-central TX. Otherwise, some threat for strong to perhaps localized severe gusts, and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible as low-level flow strengthens towards the mid to upper TX Gulf Coast, but the degree of this intensification differs across guidance. Amid the probable weak buoyancy, a low-probability severe highlight remains appropriate for this time frame. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Amplified upper-level ridging will move into the Plains today. Along the West Coast, a broad upper trough will move ashore during the period. Farther east, a weak shortwave trough will lift out of the Southwest and into the central Rockies. A strong shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coastline. ...Parts of southern/central High Plains... A deeper lee trough will develop in response to the weak shortwave trough and otherwise generally increasing mid-level flow across the southern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions are possible from the Texas Panhandle into adjacent Colorado and Kansas. RH will more than likely stay above 20% for most areas (partially due to cloud cover) and winds will be marginal. Unreceptive fuels will further reduce overall fire weather concerns. ...Southern Georgia/North Florida... The shortwave trough moving through the area will deepen a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This should help to increase northwesterly winds across the region. RH near 30% appears possible with winds of 10-15 mph (locally greater). Without drier fuels, however, fire weather risk will likely remain minimal to localized. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Amplified upper-level ridging will move into the Plains today. Along the West Coast, a broad upper trough will move ashore during the period. Farther east, a weak shortwave trough will lift out of the Southwest and into the central Rockies. A strong shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coastline. ...Parts of southern/central High Plains... A deeper lee trough will develop in response to the weak shortwave trough and otherwise generally increasing mid-level flow across the southern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions are possible from the Texas Panhandle into adjacent Colorado and Kansas. RH will more than likely stay above 20% for most areas (partially due to cloud cover) and winds will be marginal. Unreceptive fuels will further reduce overall fire weather concerns. ...Southern Georgia/North Florida... The shortwave trough moving through the area will deepen a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This should help to increase northwesterly winds across the region. RH near 30% appears possible with winds of 10-15 mph (locally greater). Without drier fuels, however, fire weather risk will likely remain minimal to localized. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Amplified upper-level ridging will move into the Plains today. Along the West Coast, a broad upper trough will move ashore during the period. Farther east, a weak shortwave trough will lift out of the Southwest and into the central Rockies. A strong shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coastline. ...Parts of southern/central High Plains... A deeper lee trough will develop in response to the weak shortwave trough and otherwise generally increasing mid-level flow across the southern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions are possible from the Texas Panhandle into adjacent Colorado and Kansas. RH will more than likely stay above 20% for most areas (partially due to cloud cover) and winds will be marginal. Unreceptive fuels will further reduce overall fire weather concerns. ...Southern Georgia/North Florida... The shortwave trough moving through the area will deepen a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This should help to increase northwesterly winds across the region. RH near 30% appears possible with winds of 10-15 mph (locally greater). Without drier fuels, however, fire weather risk will likely remain minimal to localized. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Amplified upper-level ridging will move into the Plains today. Along the West Coast, a broad upper trough will move ashore during the period. Farther east, a weak shortwave trough will lift out of the Southwest and into the central Rockies. A strong shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coastline. ...Parts of southern/central High Plains... A deeper lee trough will develop in response to the weak shortwave trough and otherwise generally increasing mid-level flow across the southern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions are possible from the Texas Panhandle into adjacent Colorado and Kansas. RH will more than likely stay above 20% for most areas (partially due to cloud cover) and winds will be marginal. Unreceptive fuels will further reduce overall fire weather concerns. ...Southern Georgia/North Florida... The shortwave trough moving through the area will deepen a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This should help to increase northwesterly winds across the region. RH near 30% appears possible with winds of 10-15 mph (locally greater). Without drier fuels, however, fire weather risk will likely remain minimal to localized. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Amplified upper-level ridging will move into the Plains today. Along the West Coast, a broad upper trough will move ashore during the period. Farther east, a weak shortwave trough will lift out of the Southwest and into the central Rockies. A strong shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coastline. ...Parts of southern/central High Plains... A deeper lee trough will develop in response to the weak shortwave trough and otherwise generally increasing mid-level flow across the southern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions are possible from the Texas Panhandle into adjacent Colorado and Kansas. RH will more than likely stay above 20% for most areas (partially due to cloud cover) and winds will be marginal. Unreceptive fuels will further reduce overall fire weather concerns. ...Southern Georgia/North Florida... The shortwave trough moving through the area will deepen a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This should help to increase northwesterly winds across the region. RH near 30% appears possible with winds of 10-15 mph (locally greater). Without drier fuels, however, fire weather risk will likely remain minimal to localized. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Parts of the Southwest... A full-latitude mid/upper trough with several embedded vorticity maxima will take on a negative tilt as it becomes centered from the Desert Southwest to west of the OR/WA coast by 12Z Friday. Thunderstorm potential will be diurnally maximized on Thursday afternoon across the CA Central Valley, where meager buoyancy develops beneath the mid-level thermal trough. Weak deep-layer shear should foster slow-moving, pulse convection. A north/south-oriented swath of rain attendant to a low-level warm conveyor will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday over parts of southern CA. This should gradually move east across the U.S. portion of the Sonoran Desert through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy should develop behind this swath over southern CA in the wake of surface trough passage, as well as ahead of it in the Four Corners vicinity amid above-normal temperatures and southwest low-level flow. Overall thunderstorm coverage should tend to remain fairly isolated, with sporadic lightning flashes possible through the period in the more robust, low-topped convection. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Parts of the Southwest... A full-latitude mid/upper trough with several embedded vorticity maxima will take on a negative tilt as it becomes centered from the Desert Southwest to west of the OR/WA coast by 12Z Friday. Thunderstorm potential will be diurnally maximized on Thursday afternoon across the CA Central Valley, where meager buoyancy develops beneath the mid-level thermal trough. Weak deep-layer shear should foster slow-moving, pulse convection. A north/south-oriented swath of rain attendant to a low-level warm conveyor will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday over parts of southern CA. This should gradually move east across the U.S. portion of the Sonoran Desert through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy should develop behind this swath over southern CA in the wake of surface trough passage, as well as ahead of it in the Four Corners vicinity amid above-normal temperatures and southwest low-level flow. Overall thunderstorm coverage should tend to remain fairly isolated, with sporadic lightning flashes possible through the period in the more robust, low-topped convection. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Parts of the Southwest... A full-latitude mid/upper trough with several embedded vorticity maxima will take on a negative tilt as it becomes centered from the Desert Southwest to west of the OR/WA coast by 12Z Friday. Thunderstorm potential will be diurnally maximized on Thursday afternoon across the CA Central Valley, where meager buoyancy develops beneath the mid-level thermal trough. Weak deep-layer shear should foster slow-moving, pulse convection. A north/south-oriented swath of rain attendant to a low-level warm conveyor will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday over parts of southern CA. This should gradually move east across the U.S. portion of the Sonoran Desert through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy should develop behind this swath over southern CA in the wake of surface trough passage, as well as ahead of it in the Four Corners vicinity amid above-normal temperatures and southwest low-level flow. Overall thunderstorm coverage should tend to remain fairly isolated, with sporadic lightning flashes possible through the period in the more robust, low-topped convection. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Parts of the Southwest... A full-latitude mid/upper trough with several embedded vorticity maxima will take on a negative tilt as it becomes centered from the Desert Southwest to west of the OR/WA coast by 12Z Friday. Thunderstorm potential will be diurnally maximized on Thursday afternoon across the CA Central Valley, where meager buoyancy develops beneath the mid-level thermal trough. Weak deep-layer shear should foster slow-moving, pulse convection. A north/south-oriented swath of rain attendant to a low-level warm conveyor will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday over parts of southern CA. This should gradually move east across the U.S. portion of the Sonoran Desert through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy should develop behind this swath over southern CA in the wake of surface trough passage, as well as ahead of it in the Four Corners vicinity amid above-normal temperatures and southwest low-level flow. Overall thunderstorm coverage should tend to remain fairly isolated, with sporadic lightning flashes possible through the period in the more robust, low-topped convection. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Parts of the Southwest... A full-latitude mid/upper trough with several embedded vorticity maxima will take on a negative tilt as it becomes centered from the Desert Southwest to west of the OR/WA coast by 12Z Friday. Thunderstorm potential will be diurnally maximized on Thursday afternoon across the CA Central Valley, where meager buoyancy develops beneath the mid-level thermal trough. Weak deep-layer shear should foster slow-moving, pulse convection. A north/south-oriented swath of rain attendant to a low-level warm conveyor will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday over parts of southern CA. This should gradually move east across the U.S. portion of the Sonoran Desert through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy should develop behind this swath over southern CA in the wake of surface trough passage, as well as ahead of it in the Four Corners vicinity amid above-normal temperatures and southwest low-level flow. Overall thunderstorm coverage should tend to remain fairly isolated, with sporadic lightning flashes possible through the period in the more robust, low-topped convection. ..Grams.. 01/31/2024 Read more