Severe Storms

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MVN TO 15 NW MDH TO 15 SSW MDH TO 25 NNE PAH TO 30 NW HOP. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-077-081-087-127-153-181-160340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PULASKI UNION KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-160340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TRIGG MOC017-031-055-093-123-133-157-179-186-187-201-221-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MVN TO 15 NW MDH TO 15 SSW MDH TO 25 NNE PAH TO 30 NW HOP. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-077-081-087-127-153-181-160340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PULASKI UNION KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-160340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TRIGG MOC017-031-055-093-123-133-157-179-186-187-201-221-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 624 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY MO 152240Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Extreme southwestern Indiana Northwestern Kentucky Southeastern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A growing cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms should continue to pose severe-weather potential across southern IL and to the adjoining Ohio Valley. Additional development is possible over southeastern Missouri to its west as well. Occasional severe gusts and large hail are the main concerns, and a tornado cannot be ruled out The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Farmington MO to 30 miles south southeast of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1915 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623... FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1915 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0851 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...Southeastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri...into western Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623... Valid 160151Z - 160315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623 continues. SUMMARY...A local extension of WW 623, and perhaps a new downstream watch, may be needed as convection crosses the Mississippi River into Illinois. DISCUSSION...Despite some stabilization of the nocturnal boundary layer, a loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms in southeastern Iowa has maintained its intensity in an environment with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts. The environment downstream will likely continue to support these storms well after dark, with additional upscale growth and organization not out of the question. The primary threat is for damaging winds, especially if upscale growth and subsequent leading-edge outflow develops, though some uncertainty remains in whether this will occur. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40189215 40659237 41299233 41519218 41719149 41729060 41698989 41528939 41138913 40768927 40368971 40229057 40159139 40189215 Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CDJ TO 15 NNE CDJ TO 35 N IRK TO 10 SSW CID. ..HALBERT..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC051-057-087-101-107-111-115-177-183-160340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LOUISA VAN BUREN WASHINGTON MOC001-045-103-111-115-121-127-197-199-205-211-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK KNOX LEWIS LINN MACON MARION SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CDJ TO 15 NNE CDJ TO 35 N IRK TO 10 SSW CID. ..HALBERT..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC051-057-087-101-107-111-115-177-183-160340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LOUISA VAN BUREN WASHINGTON MOC001-045-103-111-115-121-127-197-199-205-211-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK KNOX LEWIS LINN MACON MARION SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CDJ TO 15 NNE CDJ TO 35 N IRK TO 10 SSW CID. ..HALBERT..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC051-057-087-101-107-111-115-177-183-160340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LOUISA VAN BUREN WASHINGTON MOC001-045-103-111-115-121-127-197-199-205-211-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK KNOX LEWIS LINN MACON MARION SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CDJ TO 15 NNE CDJ TO 35 N IRK TO 10 SSW CID. ..HALBERT..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC051-057-087-101-107-111-115-177-183-160340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LOUISA VAN BUREN WASHINGTON MOC001-045-103-111-115-121-127-197-199-205-211-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK KNOX LEWIS LINN MACON MARION SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CDJ TO 15 NNE CDJ TO 35 N IRK TO 10 SSW CID. ..HALBERT..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC051-057-087-101-107-111-115-177-183-160340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LOUISA VAN BUREN WASHINGTON MOC001-045-103-111-115-121-127-197-199-205-211-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK KNOX LEWIS LINN MACON MARION SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CDJ TO 15 NNE CDJ TO 35 N IRK TO 10 SSW CID. ..HALBERT..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC051-057-087-101-107-111-115-177-183-160340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LOUISA VAN BUREN WASHINGTON MOC001-045-103-111-115-121-127-197-199-205-211-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK KNOX LEWIS LINN MACON MARION SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 623 SEVERE TSTM IA MO 152100Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Northern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon into this evening across southern Iowa/northern Missouri in an environment that supports supercells. Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, damaging gusts of 60-75 mph and an isolated tornado or two will be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 55 miles east southeast of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CDS TO 5 WNW OKC TO 15 SSE END TO 15 WNW SGF TO 5 ENE VIH. ..HALBERT..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-143-160340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL WASHINGTON MOC009-043-065-067-077-091-105-109-119-145-149-153-161-169-203- 209-213-215-225-229-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HOWELL LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON OREGON OZARK PHELPS PULASKI SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT OKC001-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-051-055-057-065-075-081-083- 087-097-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-131-133-143-145-147- Read more

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0626 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CDJ TO 20 NE LWD TO 35 WSW CID. ..HALBERT..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-051-087-095-101-107-111-123-135-177-179-183-185-160240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE DAVIS HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE MAHASKA MONROE VAN BUREN WAPELLO WASHINGTON WAYNE MOC001-045-103-111-115-121-127-171-197-199-205-211-160240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK KNOX LEWIS LINN MACON MARION PUTNAM SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 1913 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625... FOR OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1913 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...Oklahoma...southern Missouri...far southeastern Kansas...and far northwestern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625... Valid 160046Z - 160145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for WW 625 continues, but should gradually diminish as the nocturnal boundary layer stabilizes. DISCUSSION...Multiple loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across WW 625, and strong buoyancy coupled with PWAT values near 2.00 inches will continue to support a threat for damaging winds and some hail. However, this threat should gradually diminish after dark in the presence of a stabilizing nocturnal boundary layer and absence of large-scale forcing. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34849646 34339878 34339986 34680009 35010009 35439925 36329809 36969724 37369582 38359279 38459243 38289160 36539160 35729393 34849646 Read more

MD 1912 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1912 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...southern Illinois...and western Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624... Valid 160013Z - 160145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624 continues. SUMMARY...Local risk for hail and damaging outflow wind gusts continues. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that storms evolving across the southern Illinois vicinity have decreased slightly in organization/intensity over the past hour or so, with the strongest storm now moving southeastward toward/into Union County Illinois. At this point, storms appear to be largely multicellular, and should remain so over the next couple of hours, as convection persists within the axis of moderate instability roughly centered over the MS River Valley. Marginally severe hail/wind will likely remain the primary severe risks the remainder of the evening. ..Goss.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... LAT...LON 37448806 37248921 37729018 38298943 38618918 38168813 37698807 37448806 Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-193- 199-160240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WHITE WILLIAMSON INC129-163-160240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POSEY VANDERBURGH KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-157-221- 225-233-160240- KY Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW CDJ TO 25 WNW LWD TO 10 S DSM. ..HALBERT..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-039-051-053-087-095-099-101-107-111-117-123-125-135-157- 159-177-179-181-183-185-160140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR HENRY IOWA JASPER JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE MOC001-045-061-079-081-103-111-115-117-121-127-129-171-197-199- 205-211-160140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK DAVIESS GRUNDY HARRISON KNOX LEWIS LINN LIVINGSTON MACON MARION MERCER Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of the Midwest into Oklahoma. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...01z Update... Upper trough is shifting into the MS Valley early this evening, which is contributing to high-level difluent flow from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains. This corridor will remain favorable for scattered deep convection tonight, some of it robust and potentially severe. A reservoir of high buoyancy is juxtaposed along this zone with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from northeast OK into MO. This high instability airmass is partially driven by strong boundary- layer heating and steep 0-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding from SGF supports this along with 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 30kt. As the trough shifts east tonight, large-scale ascent will spread across the middle MS Valley, which will encourage a weak LLJ to focus from northern AR into western KY later tonight. With time, the most concentrated corridor of organized convection should focus across southern MO into western KY, aided in large part by the aforementioned LLJ. Farther southwest across OK, damaging-wind threat will likely be concentrated this evening. 00z sounding from OUN has a PW reading approaching 2 inches. High-based convection that developed along the I44 corridor should continue drifting south in the wake of the short wave. Boundary-layer cooling should lead to gradual weakening by 04-05z. ..Darrow.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of the Midwest into Oklahoma. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...01z Update... Upper trough is shifting into the MS Valley early this evening, which is contributing to high-level difluent flow from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains. This corridor will remain favorable for scattered deep convection tonight, some of it robust and potentially severe. A reservoir of high buoyancy is juxtaposed along this zone with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from northeast OK into MO. This high instability airmass is partially driven by strong boundary- layer heating and steep 0-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding from SGF supports this along with 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 30kt. As the trough shifts east tonight, large-scale ascent will spread across the middle MS Valley, which will encourage a weak LLJ to focus from northern AR into western KY later tonight. With time, the most concentrated corridor of organized convection should focus across southern MO into western KY, aided in large part by the aforementioned LLJ. Farther southwest across OK, damaging-wind threat will likely be concentrated this evening. 00z sounding from OUN has a PW reading approaching 2 inches. High-based convection that developed along the I44 corridor should continue drifting south in the wake of the short wave. Boundary-layer cooling should lead to gradual weakening by 04-05z. ..Darrow.. 08/16/2024 Read more