SPC Jul 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from far east Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will also be possible in Far West Texas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to move inland across the middle to upper Texas Coast this morning. Rainbands in associated with Beryl will overspread much of east Texas and western Louisiana during the day as the cyclone moves northward across east Texas. The northeast quadrant of Beryl is forecast to move into a moderately unstable airmass across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Shreveport, Louisiana from 21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range, and have large looping hodographs. In addition, the HRRR solution suggests that semi-discrete cells will develop within the eastern most rainband of Beryl. This, combined with the strong low-level shear, should be favorable for rotating storms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat is expected to coincide with the strongest instability, which should peak during the 17Z and 01Z temporal window. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as the remnants of Beryl moves into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Far West Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass, MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km lapse rates into the 8 to 8.5 C/km range by late afternoon. This, combined with about 30 knots of deep-layer shear, should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from far east Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will also be possible in Far West Texas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to move inland across the middle to upper Texas Coast this morning. Rainbands in associated with Beryl will overspread much of east Texas and western Louisiana during the day as the cyclone moves northward across east Texas. The northeast quadrant of Beryl is forecast to move into a moderately unstable airmass across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Shreveport, Louisiana from 21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range, and have large looping hodographs. In addition, the HRRR solution suggests that semi-discrete cells will develop within the eastern most rainband of Beryl. This, combined with the strong low-level shear, should be favorable for rotating storms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat is expected to coincide with the strongest instability, which should peak during the 17Z and 01Z temporal window. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as the remnants of Beryl moves into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Far West Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass, MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km lapse rates into the 8 to 8.5 C/km range by late afternoon. This, combined with about 30 knots of deep-layer shear, should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from far east Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will also be possible in Far West Texas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to move inland across the middle to upper Texas Coast this morning. Rainbands in associated with Beryl will overspread much of east Texas and western Louisiana during the day as the cyclone moves northward across east Texas. The northeast quadrant of Beryl is forecast to move into a moderately unstable airmass across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Shreveport, Louisiana from 21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range, and have large looping hodographs. In addition, the HRRR solution suggests that semi-discrete cells will develop within the eastern most rainband of Beryl. This, combined with the strong low-level shear, should be favorable for rotating storms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat is expected to coincide with the strongest instability, which should peak during the 17Z and 01Z temporal window. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as the remnants of Beryl moves into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Far West Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass, MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km lapse rates into the 8 to 8.5 C/km range by late afternoon. This, combined with about 30 knots of deep-layer shear, should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from far east Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will also be possible in Far West Texas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to move inland across the middle to upper Texas Coast this morning. Rainbands in associated with Beryl will overspread much of east Texas and western Louisiana during the day as the cyclone moves northward across east Texas. The northeast quadrant of Beryl is forecast to move into a moderately unstable airmass across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Shreveport, Louisiana from 21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range, and have large looping hodographs. In addition, the HRRR solution suggests that semi-discrete cells will develop within the eastern most rainband of Beryl. This, combined with the strong low-level shear, should be favorable for rotating storms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat is expected to coincide with the strongest instability, which should peak during the 17Z and 01Z temporal window. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as the remnants of Beryl moves into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Far West Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass, MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km lapse rates into the 8 to 8.5 C/km range by late afternoon. This, combined with about 30 knots of deep-layer shear, should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from far east Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will also be possible in Far West Texas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to move inland across the middle to upper Texas Coast this morning. Rainbands in associated with Beryl will overspread much of east Texas and western Louisiana during the day as the cyclone moves northward across east Texas. The northeast quadrant of Beryl is forecast to move into a moderately unstable airmass across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Shreveport, Louisiana from 21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range, and have large looping hodographs. In addition, the HRRR solution suggests that semi-discrete cells will develop within the eastern most rainband of Beryl. This, combined with the strong low-level shear, should be favorable for rotating storms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat is expected to coincide with the strongest instability, which should peak during the 17Z and 01Z temporal window. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as the remnants of Beryl moves into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Far West Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass, MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km lapse rates into the 8 to 8.5 C/km range by late afternoon. This, combined with about 30 knots of deep-layer shear, should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC MD 1554

1 year ago
MD 1554 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR UPPER TEXAS COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1554 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 080327Z - 080600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Tornado threat is expected to increase across the upper Texas Coast later tonight as Tropical Storm Beryl advances north. DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Beryl is advancing steadily north toward the upper TX Coast late this evening. Over the last few hours, organized outer convective bands have begun to spread inland, and there have been a few stronger supercells that have moved onshore over Brazoria into southeast Matagorda County. VWP data from HGX exhibits gradually increasing low-level shear with 0-3km SRH now on the order of 250 m2/s2. Low-level shear should increase markedly over the next several hours, and there is some concern that embedded supercells will become more common with these bands. ..Darrow/Hart.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP... LAT...LON 28939662 29879568 30299430 29789360 29119484 28409623 28939662 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W PUB TO 45 NE LAA TO 40 SSE GLD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-055-071-089-099-101-080340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT HUERFANO LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO KSC071-203-080340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY WICHITA NMC007-021-033-059-080340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W PUB TO 45 NE LAA TO 40 SSE GLD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-055-071-089-099-101-080340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT HUERFANO LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO KSC071-203-080340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY WICHITA NMC007-021-033-059-080340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W PUB TO 45 NE LAA TO 40 SSE GLD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-055-071-089-099-101-080340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT HUERFANO LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO KSC071-203-080340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY WICHITA NMC007-021-033-059-080340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W PUB TO 45 NE LAA TO 40 SSE GLD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-055-071-089-099-101-080340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT HUERFANO LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO KSC071-203-080340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY WICHITA NMC007-021-033-059-080340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W PUB TO 45 NE LAA TO 40 SSE GLD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-055-071-089-099-101-080340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT HUERFANO LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO KSC071-203-080340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY WICHITA NMC007-021-033-059-080340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511

1 year ago
WW 511 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 072050Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northeast New Mexico * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop and increase through late afternoon and early evening, initially including areas near/east of the I-25 corridor across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. These storms will be capable of large hail, and severe-wind potential may also increase as storms cluster into this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Limon CO to 60 miles south southeast of Raton NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC MD 1552

1 year ago
MD 1552 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512... FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1552 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Areas affected...Southern Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512... Valid 080042Z - 080245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds and hail remain possible with storms as they propagate southeast this evening. DISCUSSION...Northwesterly mid-level flow is gradually increasing across the southern High Plains this evening as the Plains upper trough shifts east. Surface pressures are rising across the TX Panhandle and the primary zone of low-level confluence now stretches from central OK to south of LBB. A concentrated corridor of scattered strong/severe thunderstorms has evolved along this zone, and this convection should continue to propagate south-southeast into a modestly unstable air mass characterized by MLCAPE values on the order of 1500 J/kg. Wind gusts in excess of 60kt have been noted with the activity over the TX South Plains, and this should be the primary concern as the evening progresses; although, some marginally severe hail is also possible. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 33980253 35409714 34229716 32830252 33980253 Read more

SPC MD 1553

1 year ago
MD 1553 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511... FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...FAR WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Areas affected...southeast Colorado...far western Kansas...northeastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511... Valid 080107Z - 080230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW511. Damaging wind threat will increase through the evening. DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms continue across southeastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico, with trends over the last hour favoring clustering of supercells. Evolution through the evening is still expected to favor attempts at upscale growth along strengthening cold pools and eventual southeastward propagating MCS moving out of southeastern Colorado. This regime would support an increase in risk for damaging wind over the next couple of hours, along with a continued threat for occasional large hail. Local spatial expansion of WW511 may be needed to cover this threat across southeastern Colorado and potentially into far western Kansas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37410495 37910513 38490527 38870522 38960482 39080404 39090344 39140266 39160208 39070169 38650136 38490136 37570216 37250247 36770314 36530358 36240450 36360488 37410495 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible from the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening across parts of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and in portions of the southern Plains. ...Eastern Colorado/Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central High Plains. At the surface, upslope flow is in place across much of eastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. From near the Palmer Divide southward into northeastern New Mexico, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis of instability in the lee of the higher terrain. Wind shear within this corridor is sampled by the Pueblo WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km near 55 knots, owing to an abrupt east-to-west shift in the winds near 2 km AGL. This will help storms to remain organized, supporting a continued severe threat for much of the evening. The more intense cells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale upper-level trough is located across the southern and central Plains, according to water vapor imagery. At the surface, a cold front is situated from west Texas east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma, with thunderstorms ongoing along and near the boundary. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP near the front, with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 3 Km AGL. This should continue to be favorable for a severe threat this evening, as cells generally move southeastward across the southern Plains. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Southwest Louisiana... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland across the middle Texas Coast late tonight. Ahead of Beryl's center, bands of moderate to heavy rain will overspread the middle to upper Texas Coast. Strong low-level shear associated with Beryl will likely support a tornado threat, mainly if semi-discrete rotating cells can form within the more well-developed rainbands. The greatest tornado threat is expected late tonight over the middle to upper Texas Coast as the northeastern quadrant of Beryl moves inland. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2024 Read more
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