Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of the Midwest into Oklahoma. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...01z Update... Upper trough is shifting into the MS Valley early this evening, which is contributing to high-level difluent flow from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains. This corridor will remain favorable for scattered deep convection tonight, some of it robust and potentially severe. A reservoir of high buoyancy is juxtaposed along this zone with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from northeast OK into MO. This high instability airmass is partially driven by strong boundary- layer heating and steep 0-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding from SGF supports this along with 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 30kt. As the trough shifts east tonight, large-scale ascent will spread across the middle MS Valley, which will encourage a weak LLJ to focus from northern AR into western KY later tonight. With time, the most concentrated corridor of organized convection should focus across southern MO into western KY, aided in large part by the aforementioned LLJ. Farther southwest across OK, damaging-wind threat will likely be concentrated this evening. 00z sounding from OUN has a PW reading approaching 2 inches. High-based convection that developed along the I44 corridor should continue drifting south in the wake of the short wave. Boundary-layer cooling should lead to gradual weakening by 04-05z. ..Darrow.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of the Midwest into Oklahoma. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...01z Update... Upper trough is shifting into the MS Valley early this evening, which is contributing to high-level difluent flow from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains. This corridor will remain favorable for scattered deep convection tonight, some of it robust and potentially severe. A reservoir of high buoyancy is juxtaposed along this zone with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from northeast OK into MO. This high instability airmass is partially driven by strong boundary- layer heating and steep 0-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding from SGF supports this along with 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 30kt. As the trough shifts east tonight, large-scale ascent will spread across the middle MS Valley, which will encourage a weak LLJ to focus from northern AR into western KY later tonight. With time, the most concentrated corridor of organized convection should focus across southern MO into western KY, aided in large part by the aforementioned LLJ. Farther southwest across OK, damaging-wind threat will likely be concentrated this evening. 00z sounding from OUN has a PW reading approaching 2 inches. High-based convection that developed along the I44 corridor should continue drifting south in the wake of the short wave. Boundary-layer cooling should lead to gradual weakening by 04-05z. ..Darrow.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of the Midwest into Oklahoma. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...01z Update... Upper trough is shifting into the MS Valley early this evening, which is contributing to high-level difluent flow from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains. This corridor will remain favorable for scattered deep convection tonight, some of it robust and potentially severe. A reservoir of high buoyancy is juxtaposed along this zone with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from northeast OK into MO. This high instability airmass is partially driven by strong boundary- layer heating and steep 0-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding from SGF supports this along with 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 30kt. As the trough shifts east tonight, large-scale ascent will spread across the middle MS Valley, which will encourage a weak LLJ to focus from northern AR into western KY later tonight. With time, the most concentrated corridor of organized convection should focus across southern MO into western KY, aided in large part by the aforementioned LLJ. Farther southwest across OK, damaging-wind threat will likely be concentrated this evening. 00z sounding from OUN has a PW reading approaching 2 inches. High-based convection that developed along the I44 corridor should continue drifting south in the wake of the short wave. Boundary-layer cooling should lead to gradual weakening by 04-05z. ..Darrow.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of the Midwest into Oklahoma. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...01z Update... Upper trough is shifting into the MS Valley early this evening, which is contributing to high-level difluent flow from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains. This corridor will remain favorable for scattered deep convection tonight, some of it robust and potentially severe. A reservoir of high buoyancy is juxtaposed along this zone with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from northeast OK into MO. This high instability airmass is partially driven by strong boundary- layer heating and steep 0-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding from SGF supports this along with 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 30kt. As the trough shifts east tonight, large-scale ascent will spread across the middle MS Valley, which will encourage a weak LLJ to focus from northern AR into western KY later tonight. With time, the most concentrated corridor of organized convection should focus across southern MO into western KY, aided in large part by the aforementioned LLJ. Farther southwest across OK, damaging-wind threat will likely be concentrated this evening. 00z sounding from OUN has a PW reading approaching 2 inches. High-based convection that developed along the I44 corridor should continue drifting south in the wake of the short wave. Boundary-layer cooling should lead to gradual weakening by 04-05z. ..Darrow.. 08/16/2024 Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CDS TO 30 NNW CHK TO 25 ESE P28. ..HALBERT..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-143-160140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL WASHINGTON KSC019-021-037-099-125-133-160140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO MOC009-011-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-109- 119-125-131-145-149-153-161-167-169-203-209-213-215-217-225-229- 160140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CAMDEN Read more

MD 1911 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623... FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1911 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623... Valid 152314Z - 160045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms continues across WW 623. DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed across portions of WW 623, supported by a moist/unstable airmass and modest 35-40 kt deep-layer shear. Primarily straight-line hodographs will continue to support splitting supercells capable of all hazards, though the tornado potential appears somewhat limited given the lack of low-level flow/curvature of hodographs. The primary threat will be for large hail (especially with any long-lived left split supercells) and damaging winds. Some additional convective development is anticipated as a frontal impinges on the northern portions of the watch area, with visible satellite imagery showing deepening cumulus indicating new initiation. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39499544 39499578 41359587 41849591 41859355 41829148 39679120 39499544 Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CDS TO 30 NNW CHK TO 25 ESE P28. ..HALBERT..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-143-160140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL WASHINGTON KSC019-021-037-099-125-133-160140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO MOC009-011-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-109- 119-125-131-145-149-153-161-167-169-203-209-213-215-217-225-229- 160140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CAMDEN Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-193- 199-160140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WHITE WILLIAMSON INC129-163-160140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POSEY VANDERBURGH KYC033-055-101-107-139-143-225-233-160140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1911 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623... FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1911 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623... Valid 152314Z - 160045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms continues across WW 623. DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed across portions of WW 623, supported by a moist/unstable airmass and modest 35-40 kt deep-layer shear. Primarily straight-line hodographs will continue to support splitting supercells capable of all hazards, though the tornado potential appears somewhat limited given the lack of low-level flow/curvature of hodographs. The primary threat will be for large hail (especially with any long-lived left split supercells) and damaging winds. Some additional convective development is anticipated as a frontal impinges on the northern portions of the watch area, with visible satellite imagery showing deepening cumulus indicating new initiation. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39499544 39499578 41359587 41849591 41859355 41829148 39679120 39499544 Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-029-039-049-051-053-071-087-095-099-101-107-111- 117-121-123-125-135-137-145-153-157-159-173-175-177-179-181-183- 185-160040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CASS CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT HENRY IOWA JASPER JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE MOC001-003-005-045-061-063-075-079-081-087-103-111-115-117-121- 127-129-147-171-197-199-205-211-227-160040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 623 SEVERE TSTM IA MO 152100Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Northern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon into this evening across southern Iowa/northern Missouri in an environment that supports supercells. Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, damaging gusts of 60-75 mph and an isolated tornado or two will be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 55 miles east southeast of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1910 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1910 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southern Missouri into southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152101Z - 152330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The risk of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail will gradually increase over the next few hours. A watch may eventually be needed, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis and VWP data indicate weak low-level warm advection atop an antecedent outflow boundary across portions of southern MO into southern IL -- where cumulus clouds are gradually evolving/deepening. Continued diurnal heating and warm advection should eventually support thunderstorm development across the area, though the weak forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on timing of initiation. That said, one thunderstorm has developed on the southern MO/IL border, and this storm could pose a risk of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail in the near term. Additional thunderstorms will be developing in an environment characterized by around 30 kt of effective shear (with favorable low-level hodograph curvature) and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a warm/moist boundary layer (middle 70s dewpoints and upper 80s/lower 90s temperatures). As a result, a mix of organized clusters and supercells are possible, posing a risk of damaging winds and large hail. Westerly flow parallel to the antecedent outflow may promote gradual congealing of cold pools and an increasing risk of severe gusts. While a watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area, timing is currently uncertain. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38069209 38329076 38369021 38228963 37908939 37298940 36908957 36678993 36589121 36599282 36629352 36819386 37139391 37559391 37859358 38069209 Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0625 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 625 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 152300Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northwestern Arkansas Southeastern Kansas Southwestern and south-central Missouri Western, central and northeastern Oklahoma * Effective this Thursday night from 600 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered pulse-severe downbursts with embedded damaging gusts and large hail are possible from thunderstorms the next several hours in a well-heated, unstable and very moist environment. A few small clusters also may organize with cold-pool-driven wind potential. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Clinton OK to 30 miles southeast of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623...WW 624... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-029-039-049-051-053-071-087-095-099-101-107-111- 117-121-123-125-135-137-145-153-157-159-173-175-177-179-181-183- 185-152340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CASS CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT HENRY IOWA JASPER JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE MOC001-003-005-045-061-063-075-079-081-087-103-111-115-117-121- 127-129-147-171-197-199-205-211-227-152340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1909 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1909 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern and central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152026Z - 152300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Portions of northern and central Oklahoma are being monitored for severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds and isolated large hail. It is unclear if a watch is needed at this time. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar data indicate agitated cumulus (some possibly rooted above the boundary layer) and isolated convective initiation across northern and central OK -- generally focused along a pre-frontal surface trough. During the next few hours, several high-based thunderstorms should evolve and gradually intensify, given continued boundary-layer heating/steepening lapse rates and rich boundary-layer moisture. While around 20-25 kt of effective shear could limit storm organization until a substantial cold pool can develop, sporadic strong to severe downbursts and marginally severe hail could accompany the more robust cores in the near term. With time, increasing storm coverage should promote a greater risk of severe gusts, especially with any convective clustering that occurs. It is unclear if a watch will be needed in the near term, and convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35989872 36589733 36959619 36929580 36699554 36249553 35889568 34949733 34729792 34739858 34949903 35369919 35719912 35989872 Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0624 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0624 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 624 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY MO 152240Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Extreme southwestern Indiana Northwestern Kentucky Southeastern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A growing cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms should continue to pose severe-weather potential across southern IL and to the adjoining Ohio Valley. Additional development is possible over southeastern Missouri to its west as well. Occasional severe gusts and large hail are the main concerns, and a tornado cannot be ruled out The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Farmington MO to 30 miles south southeast of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1908 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri and southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152003Z - 152230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development appears possible as early as 5-7 PM CDT. One or two supercells may evolve, posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado. DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for convective development remains generally weak and/or unclear. However, a seasonably moist boundary-layer along and east of the southeastward advancing weak surface troughing is becoming moderately unstable across parts of northeast Kansas into southern Iowa, where CAPE now appears in excess of 2000 J/kg and mid-level inhibition is eroding. This is being aided by both continuing insolation and mid-level cooling associated with a notable short wave perturbation pivoting across the mid to lower Missouri Valley vicinity. As the exit region of a 40-70 kt westerly jet in the 500-300 mb layer noses across the stronger destabilization, vertical shear is becoming increasingly conducive to supercells. Although timing of thunderstorm initiation remains uncertain, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible as early as 22-00z, particularly within a corridor east-southeast of St. Joseph MO through the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 40219546 41349399 41859248 41099091 40429178 38959464 39279575 40219546 Read more