Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the OH Valley as a mid-level anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West on Tuesday. Given available moisture and instability, thunderstorms are expected across the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well as the Intermountain west (due to orographic lift). The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be in association with the remnants of Beryl, which are poised to track northeastward toward the Mid-South into the OH Valley in tandem with the mid-level trough. A couple of strong storms are also possible over New England. However, given neutral heights and potentially limited buoyancy, confidence is too low for introducing severe probabilities at this time. ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... The remnants of Beryl should track northeastward as a strengthening and deepening surface cyclone while coupling with the mid-level trough on Tuesday. Guidance consensus depicts rich low-level moisture advecting ahead of the surface low to foster at least 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Southeasterly low-level flow will quickly veer and strengthen with height to support enlarged, curved hodographs ahead of the surface low. As such, at least a few damaging gusts and/or tornadoes are possible with the stronger, more sustained storms that can develop. It is possible that greater severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks to address the severe threat. However, too many discrepancies exist between deterministic medium-range guidance members in terms of the placement and timing of the surface low and associated buoyancy/shear parameter spaces to delineate higher severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the OH Valley as a mid-level anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West on Tuesday. Given available moisture and instability, thunderstorms are expected across the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well as the Intermountain west (due to orographic lift). The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be in association with the remnants of Beryl, which are poised to track northeastward toward the Mid-South into the OH Valley in tandem with the mid-level trough. A couple of strong storms are also possible over New England. However, given neutral heights and potentially limited buoyancy, confidence is too low for introducing severe probabilities at this time. ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... The remnants of Beryl should track northeastward as a strengthening and deepening surface cyclone while coupling with the mid-level trough on Tuesday. Guidance consensus depicts rich low-level moisture advecting ahead of the surface low to foster at least 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Southeasterly low-level flow will quickly veer and strengthen with height to support enlarged, curved hodographs ahead of the surface low. As such, at least a few damaging gusts and/or tornadoes are possible with the stronger, more sustained storms that can develop. It is possible that greater severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks to address the severe threat. However, too many discrepancies exist between deterministic medium-range guidance members in terms of the placement and timing of the surface low and associated buoyancy/shear parameter spaces to delineate higher severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the OH Valley as a mid-level anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West on Tuesday. Given available moisture and instability, thunderstorms are expected across the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well as the Intermountain west (due to orographic lift). The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be in association with the remnants of Beryl, which are poised to track northeastward toward the Mid-South into the OH Valley in tandem with the mid-level trough. A couple of strong storms are also possible over New England. However, given neutral heights and potentially limited buoyancy, confidence is too low for introducing severe probabilities at this time. ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... The remnants of Beryl should track northeastward as a strengthening and deepening surface cyclone while coupling with the mid-level trough on Tuesday. Guidance consensus depicts rich low-level moisture advecting ahead of the surface low to foster at least 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Southeasterly low-level flow will quickly veer and strengthen with height to support enlarged, curved hodographs ahead of the surface low. As such, at least a few damaging gusts and/or tornadoes are possible with the stronger, more sustained storms that can develop. It is possible that greater severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks to address the severe threat. However, too many discrepancies exist between deterministic medium-range guidance members in terms of the placement and timing of the surface low and associated buoyancy/shear parameter spaces to delineate higher severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the OH Valley as a mid-level anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West on Tuesday. Given available moisture and instability, thunderstorms are expected across the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well as the Intermountain west (due to orographic lift). The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be in association with the remnants of Beryl, which are poised to track northeastward toward the Mid-South into the OH Valley in tandem with the mid-level trough. A couple of strong storms are also possible over New England. However, given neutral heights and potentially limited buoyancy, confidence is too low for introducing severe probabilities at this time. ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... The remnants of Beryl should track northeastward as a strengthening and deepening surface cyclone while coupling with the mid-level trough on Tuesday. Guidance consensus depicts rich low-level moisture advecting ahead of the surface low to foster at least 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Southeasterly low-level flow will quickly veer and strengthen with height to support enlarged, curved hodographs ahead of the surface low. As such, at least a few damaging gusts and/or tornadoes are possible with the stronger, more sustained storms that can develop. It is possible that greater severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks to address the severe threat. However, too many discrepancies exist between deterministic medium-range guidance members in terms of the placement and timing of the surface low and associated buoyancy/shear parameter spaces to delineate higher severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge will remain in place over the western CONUS through the day on Monday, with modest northwesterly mid-level flow over the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS. RH is expected to be in the 5-15% range across much of this region during the afternoon with fuels which are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. However, due to the lack of a well-defined mid-level flow perturbation, any surface winds necessary for Elevated or Critical fire conditions are expected to be localized and/or transient. Therefore, no highlights have been included on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge will remain in place over the western CONUS through the day on Monday, with modest northwesterly mid-level flow over the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS. RH is expected to be in the 5-15% range across much of this region during the afternoon with fuels which are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. However, due to the lack of a well-defined mid-level flow perturbation, any surface winds necessary for Elevated or Critical fire conditions are expected to be localized and/or transient. Therefore, no highlights have been included on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge will remain in place over the western CONUS through the day on Monday, with modest northwesterly mid-level flow over the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS. RH is expected to be in the 5-15% range across much of this region during the afternoon with fuels which are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. However, due to the lack of a well-defined mid-level flow perturbation, any surface winds necessary for Elevated or Critical fire conditions are expected to be localized and/or transient. Therefore, no highlights have been included on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge will remain in place over the western CONUS through the day on Monday, with modest northwesterly mid-level flow over the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS. RH is expected to be in the 5-15% range across much of this region during the afternoon with fuels which are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. However, due to the lack of a well-defined mid-level flow perturbation, any surface winds necessary for Elevated or Critical fire conditions are expected to be localized and/or transient. Therefore, no highlights have been included on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge is currently centered over California with a trough to the northeast, and embedded in the northwesterly mid-level flow, is a shortwave trough which will traverse the Great Basin through the day today. This shortwave trough should result in breezy conditions, with gusts to 30-35 mph overlapping with 5-10% RH in the afternoon. Fuels in the Great Basin region are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. The Critical region has been maintained in portions of southern Utah where fuels are a bit drier than in the surrounding Elevated area. Additionally, in the southern California coastal range and the Transverse Ranges, dry fuels are in place with low RH expected this afternoon. However, at this time, areas of strong winds are expected to be transient and therefore no Elevated highlights have been included on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge is currently centered over California with a trough to the northeast, and embedded in the northwesterly mid-level flow, is a shortwave trough which will traverse the Great Basin through the day today. This shortwave trough should result in breezy conditions, with gusts to 30-35 mph overlapping with 5-10% RH in the afternoon. Fuels in the Great Basin region are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. The Critical region has been maintained in portions of southern Utah where fuels are a bit drier than in the surrounding Elevated area. Additionally, in the southern California coastal range and the Transverse Ranges, dry fuels are in place with low RH expected this afternoon. However, at this time, areas of strong winds are expected to be transient and therefore no Elevated highlights have been included on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge is currently centered over California with a trough to the northeast, and embedded in the northwesterly mid-level flow, is a shortwave trough which will traverse the Great Basin through the day today. This shortwave trough should result in breezy conditions, with gusts to 30-35 mph overlapping with 5-10% RH in the afternoon. Fuels in the Great Basin region are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. The Critical region has been maintained in portions of southern Utah where fuels are a bit drier than in the surrounding Elevated area. Additionally, in the southern California coastal range and the Transverse Ranges, dry fuels are in place with low RH expected this afternoon. However, at this time, areas of strong winds are expected to be transient and therefore no Elevated highlights have been included on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge is currently centered over California with a trough to the northeast, and embedded in the northwesterly mid-level flow, is a shortwave trough which will traverse the Great Basin through the day today. This shortwave trough should result in breezy conditions, with gusts to 30-35 mph overlapping with 5-10% RH in the afternoon. Fuels in the Great Basin region are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. The Critical region has been maintained in portions of southern Utah where fuels are a bit drier than in the surrounding Elevated area. Additionally, in the southern California coastal range and the Transverse Ranges, dry fuels are in place with low RH expected this afternoon. However, at this time, areas of strong winds are expected to be transient and therefore no Elevated highlights have been included on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... At least an isolated risk for tornadoes will be possible across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe gusts or instances of hail may also occur in southwestern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant weak surface low will meander eastward across the MS Valley as a diffuse surface cold front sags southward across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday). Meanwhile, an upper ridge and associated surface high will persist across the Interior West. At the start of the period (12Z Monday), Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the TX coastline as a hurricane before weakening as it continues to move further inland. Toward the end of the period (12Z Tuesday), the remnants of Beryl are poised to track northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley while merging with the mid-level trough. At least isolated thunderstorms are possible across most of the CONUS along and to the east of the Rockies (east of the upper-level ridge/surface high), where adequate moisture and buoyancy are present. The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be associated with Beryl across eastern TX/western LA, where a few tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storms could occur near the cold front across southwestern TX. ...Eastern TX into Western LA and southwestern AR... At the start of the period, Beryl should make landfall as an annular hurricane, with rich low-level moisture (i.e. mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) advecting inland from the Galveston Bay area, into the right-front quadrant of the cyclone. Through the day, Beryl will weaken to tropical storm status and transition to an asymmetric cyclone as it shifts northeast and begins to merge with the mid-level trough. Through this period, guidance consensus depicts considerable strengthening and veering of the low-level vertical wind profile, resulting in large, curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) within the northeast quadrant, coinciding with over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Multiple CAM members also show semi-discrete storms within the northeast quadrant. At least a few tornadoes are possible as the northeast quadrant of Beryl tracks northeast across eastern TX into western LA and southwestern AR. Other thunderstorms may develop along the northern/easternmost periphery of Beryl, where vertical wind shear will be weaker. A damaging gust or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms across northeast AR into southeast MO. ...Southwestern TX... By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and immediately south of the cold front across the Trans Pecos region of southwestern TX. These storms will develop atop a deep, mixed boundary layer amid elongated hodographs. Multicells are expected as the main storm mode. 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km coinciding with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will support an isolated severe gust/hail threat with the stronger storms before diminishing after sunset. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... At least an isolated risk for tornadoes will be possible across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe gusts or instances of hail may also occur in southwestern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant weak surface low will meander eastward across the MS Valley as a diffuse surface cold front sags southward across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday). Meanwhile, an upper ridge and associated surface high will persist across the Interior West. At the start of the period (12Z Monday), Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the TX coastline as a hurricane before weakening as it continues to move further inland. Toward the end of the period (12Z Tuesday), the remnants of Beryl are poised to track northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley while merging with the mid-level trough. At least isolated thunderstorms are possible across most of the CONUS along and to the east of the Rockies (east of the upper-level ridge/surface high), where adequate moisture and buoyancy are present. The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be associated with Beryl across eastern TX/western LA, where a few tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storms could occur near the cold front across southwestern TX. ...Eastern TX into Western LA and southwestern AR... At the start of the period, Beryl should make landfall as an annular hurricane, with rich low-level moisture (i.e. mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) advecting inland from the Galveston Bay area, into the right-front quadrant of the cyclone. Through the day, Beryl will weaken to tropical storm status and transition to an asymmetric cyclone as it shifts northeast and begins to merge with the mid-level trough. Through this period, guidance consensus depicts considerable strengthening and veering of the low-level vertical wind profile, resulting in large, curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) within the northeast quadrant, coinciding with over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Multiple CAM members also show semi-discrete storms within the northeast quadrant. At least a few tornadoes are possible as the northeast quadrant of Beryl tracks northeast across eastern TX into western LA and southwestern AR. Other thunderstorms may develop along the northern/easternmost periphery of Beryl, where vertical wind shear will be weaker. A damaging gust or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms across northeast AR into southeast MO. ...Southwestern TX... By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and immediately south of the cold front across the Trans Pecos region of southwestern TX. These storms will develop atop a deep, mixed boundary layer amid elongated hodographs. Multicells are expected as the main storm mode. 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km coinciding with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will support an isolated severe gust/hail threat with the stronger storms before diminishing after sunset. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... At least an isolated risk for tornadoes will be possible across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe gusts or instances of hail may also occur in southwestern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant weak surface low will meander eastward across the MS Valley as a diffuse surface cold front sags southward across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday). Meanwhile, an upper ridge and associated surface high will persist across the Interior West. At the start of the period (12Z Monday), Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the TX coastline as a hurricane before weakening as it continues to move further inland. Toward the end of the period (12Z Tuesday), the remnants of Beryl are poised to track northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley while merging with the mid-level trough. At least isolated thunderstorms are possible across most of the CONUS along and to the east of the Rockies (east of the upper-level ridge/surface high), where adequate moisture and buoyancy are present. The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be associated with Beryl across eastern TX/western LA, where a few tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storms could occur near the cold front across southwestern TX. ...Eastern TX into Western LA and southwestern AR... At the start of the period, Beryl should make landfall as an annular hurricane, with rich low-level moisture (i.e. mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) advecting inland from the Galveston Bay area, into the right-front quadrant of the cyclone. Through the day, Beryl will weaken to tropical storm status and transition to an asymmetric cyclone as it shifts northeast and begins to merge with the mid-level trough. Through this period, guidance consensus depicts considerable strengthening and veering of the low-level vertical wind profile, resulting in large, curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) within the northeast quadrant, coinciding with over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Multiple CAM members also show semi-discrete storms within the northeast quadrant. At least a few tornadoes are possible as the northeast quadrant of Beryl tracks northeast across eastern TX into western LA and southwestern AR. Other thunderstorms may develop along the northern/easternmost periphery of Beryl, where vertical wind shear will be weaker. A damaging gust or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms across northeast AR into southeast MO. ...Southwestern TX... By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and immediately south of the cold front across the Trans Pecos region of southwestern TX. These storms will develop atop a deep, mixed boundary layer amid elongated hodographs. Multicells are expected as the main storm mode. 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km coinciding with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will support an isolated severe gust/hail threat with the stronger storms before diminishing after sunset. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... At least an isolated risk for tornadoes will be possible across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe gusts or instances of hail may also occur in southwestern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant weak surface low will meander eastward across the MS Valley as a diffuse surface cold front sags southward across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday). Meanwhile, an upper ridge and associated surface high will persist across the Interior West. At the start of the period (12Z Monday), Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the TX coastline as a hurricane before weakening as it continues to move further inland. Toward the end of the period (12Z Tuesday), the remnants of Beryl are poised to track northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley while merging with the mid-level trough. At least isolated thunderstorms are possible across most of the CONUS along and to the east of the Rockies (east of the upper-level ridge/surface high), where adequate moisture and buoyancy are present. The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be associated with Beryl across eastern TX/western LA, where a few tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storms could occur near the cold front across southwestern TX. ...Eastern TX into Western LA and southwestern AR... At the start of the period, Beryl should make landfall as an annular hurricane, with rich low-level moisture (i.e. mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) advecting inland from the Galveston Bay area, into the right-front quadrant of the cyclone. Through the day, Beryl will weaken to tropical storm status and transition to an asymmetric cyclone as it shifts northeast and begins to merge with the mid-level trough. Through this period, guidance consensus depicts considerable strengthening and veering of the low-level vertical wind profile, resulting in large, curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) within the northeast quadrant, coinciding with over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Multiple CAM members also show semi-discrete storms within the northeast quadrant. At least a few tornadoes are possible as the northeast quadrant of Beryl tracks northeast across eastern TX into western LA and southwestern AR. Other thunderstorms may develop along the northern/easternmost periphery of Beryl, where vertical wind shear will be weaker. A damaging gust or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms across northeast AR into southeast MO. ...Southwestern TX... By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and immediately south of the cold front across the Trans Pecos region of southwestern TX. These storms will develop atop a deep, mixed boundary layer amid elongated hodographs. Multicells are expected as the main storm mode. 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km coinciding with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will support an isolated severe gust/hail threat with the stronger storms before diminishing after sunset. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected today in parts of the central and southern Plains. A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the coast this evening and makes landfall later tonight. ...Central and Southern Plains... A shortwave trough, embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough, will move southeastward into the central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Early in the day, thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the vicinity of the front across eastern Colorado. Other storms appear likely to develop ahead of the front over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. In the wake of the eastern most cluster, strong surface heating will enable a large area of moderate instability to develop by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle eastward into south-central Oklahoma. As the front moves southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop from the Texas Panhandle eastward into western and central Oklahoma. MCS development will likely take place as the a low-level jet strengthens across the southern Plains during the early to mid evening. Within the moist and unstable airmass, surface dewpoints will likely be in the mid to upper 60s F, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7 to 8 C/km range, suggesting thermodynamics will be favorable for isolated large hail. The hail threat should be concentrated in the late afternoon near and after the peak in instability. A potential for severe wind gusts should also develop in the late afternoon. Severe wind gusts could become the predominant severe threat, especially if a well-developed line segment can become organized. This threat could continue into the late evening, associated with the stronger cells within the MCS. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane today in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, per NHC forecast. As the center of Beryl approaches the middle Texas Coast this evening, bands of heavy rainfall appear likely begin to overspread parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. In response to the approaching cyclone, low-level shear will steadily increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast. This will likely result in a tornado threat this evening into tonight, with semi-discrete rotating cells that develop with the rainbands of Beryl. The greatest tornado threat should develop to the north and east of the center of Beryl as it approaches the coast tonight. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected today in parts of the central and southern Plains. A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the coast this evening and makes landfall later tonight. ...Central and Southern Plains... A shortwave trough, embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough, will move southeastward into the central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Early in the day, thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the vicinity of the front across eastern Colorado. Other storms appear likely to develop ahead of the front over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. In the wake of the eastern most cluster, strong surface heating will enable a large area of moderate instability to develop by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle eastward into south-central Oklahoma. As the front moves southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop from the Texas Panhandle eastward into western and central Oklahoma. MCS development will likely take place as the a low-level jet strengthens across the southern Plains during the early to mid evening. Within the moist and unstable airmass, surface dewpoints will likely be in the mid to upper 60s F, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7 to 8 C/km range, suggesting thermodynamics will be favorable for isolated large hail. The hail threat should be concentrated in the late afternoon near and after the peak in instability. A potential for severe wind gusts should also develop in the late afternoon. Severe wind gusts could become the predominant severe threat, especially if a well-developed line segment can become organized. This threat could continue into the late evening, associated with the stronger cells within the MCS. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane today in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, per NHC forecast. As the center of Beryl approaches the middle Texas Coast this evening, bands of heavy rainfall appear likely begin to overspread parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. In response to the approaching cyclone, low-level shear will steadily increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast. This will likely result in a tornado threat this evening into tonight, with semi-discrete rotating cells that develop with the rainbands of Beryl. The greatest tornado threat should develop to the north and east of the center of Beryl as it approaches the coast tonight. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected today in parts of the central and southern Plains. A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the coast this evening and makes landfall later tonight. ...Central and Southern Plains... A shortwave trough, embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough, will move southeastward into the central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Early in the day, thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the vicinity of the front across eastern Colorado. Other storms appear likely to develop ahead of the front over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. In the wake of the eastern most cluster, strong surface heating will enable a large area of moderate instability to develop by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle eastward into south-central Oklahoma. As the front moves southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop from the Texas Panhandle eastward into western and central Oklahoma. MCS development will likely take place as the a low-level jet strengthens across the southern Plains during the early to mid evening. Within the moist and unstable airmass, surface dewpoints will likely be in the mid to upper 60s F, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7 to 8 C/km range, suggesting thermodynamics will be favorable for isolated large hail. The hail threat should be concentrated in the late afternoon near and after the peak in instability. A potential for severe wind gusts should also develop in the late afternoon. Severe wind gusts could become the predominant severe threat, especially if a well-developed line segment can become organized. This threat could continue into the late evening, associated with the stronger cells within the MCS. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane today in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, per NHC forecast. As the center of Beryl approaches the middle Texas Coast this evening, bands of heavy rainfall appear likely begin to overspread parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. In response to the approaching cyclone, low-level shear will steadily increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast. This will likely result in a tornado threat this evening into tonight, with semi-discrete rotating cells that develop with the rainbands of Beryl. The greatest tornado threat should develop to the north and east of the center of Beryl as it approaches the coast tonight. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected today in parts of the central and southern Plains. A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the coast this evening and makes landfall later tonight. ...Central and Southern Plains... A shortwave trough, embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough, will move southeastward into the central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Early in the day, thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the vicinity of the front across eastern Colorado. Other storms appear likely to develop ahead of the front over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. In the wake of the eastern most cluster, strong surface heating will enable a large area of moderate instability to develop by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle eastward into south-central Oklahoma. As the front moves southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop from the Texas Panhandle eastward into western and central Oklahoma. MCS development will likely take place as the a low-level jet strengthens across the southern Plains during the early to mid evening. Within the moist and unstable airmass, surface dewpoints will likely be in the mid to upper 60s F, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7 to 8 C/km range, suggesting thermodynamics will be favorable for isolated large hail. The hail threat should be concentrated in the late afternoon near and after the peak in instability. A potential for severe wind gusts should also develop in the late afternoon. Severe wind gusts could become the predominant severe threat, especially if a well-developed line segment can become organized. This threat could continue into the late evening, associated with the stronger cells within the MCS. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane today in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, per NHC forecast. As the center of Beryl approaches the middle Texas Coast this evening, bands of heavy rainfall appear likely begin to overspread parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. In response to the approaching cyclone, low-level shear will steadily increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast. This will likely result in a tornado threat this evening into tonight, with semi-discrete rotating cells that develop with the rainbands of Beryl. The greatest tornado threat should develop to the north and east of the center of Beryl as it approaches the coast tonight. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/07/2024 Read more