Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0508 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 6 17:04:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more