Severe Storms

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 507 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-027-033-037-041-047-059-060140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING LINCOLN MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 5 23:21:12 UTC 2024.

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0507 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 507 SEVERE TSTM NM 052320Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing off the higher terrain of central NM and will spread southeastward through the evening. The strongest storms may produce locally damaging winds and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Raton NM to 30 miles southeast of Roswell NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Hart Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 5 23:02:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1541 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Areas affected...North-Central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052031Z - 052200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts/hail possible with the strongest cells, watch issuance is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite trends show a few clusters of storms that have emerged this afternoon. These storms have developed within an environment characterized by weak instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) that increases with eastern extent, and relatively weak shear that increases to near 40 kts of effective bulk shear with western extent. In the near term, this activity is anticipated to persist and drift eastward into portions of east-central Montana. Some intensification may occur with time, but convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain amid the aforementioned weak cape/shear environment. Nevertheless, strong to severe winds/hail is possible with the strongest cells. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, however, watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. ..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46860744 47220897 47551050 47631167 48271175 48761006 48980796 48780655 48110652 47310667 46860744 Read more

MD 1540 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051928Z - 052130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage expected to increase this afternoon, a few of which may produce severe hail/wind gusts, though watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show a decrease in cloud cover throughout the late morning/early afternoon across most of eastern New Mexico, while strong heating has been occurring along/near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Surface observations show easterly upslope flow into region, with dew point temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s. This combination is yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, with isolated storms beginning to develop in proximity to the Sangre de Cristo range. Storm coverage should continue to increase, particularly in northeast New Mexico, as continued heating/destabilization occurs, with multicells emerging as the predominant mode. Deep-layer shear is notably weak across the state, approaching 30-35 kt with northern extent. Therefore, a few storms may organize into supercell structures, at least briefly, with the potential for severe hail/wind gusts. With time, storm coverage should expand southward, though coverage of the severe threat is anticipated to remain low. Given these expectations, watch issuance is unlikely for the region at this time. ..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 35240553 36100539 36780516 36950467 36990390 36680333 36160311 35090298 34300303 33660312 33400333 33330376 33340436 33660492 34250527 35240553 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more