Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MID SOUTH...OZARKS...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Extensive convection may be ongoing Friday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms cannot be ruled out through the day, though the primary severe threat is currently expected with storms that will develop in the wake of early convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture will support pockets of moderate to locally strong destabilization by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moderate midlevel flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment may eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. Details of storm initiation and evolution remain unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging wind and hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, once confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader risk area. ...Ozarks into parts of KS/OK... The trailing portion of the cold front will likely extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modestly supportive deep-layer shear could result in a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MID SOUTH...OZARKS...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Extensive convection may be ongoing Friday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms cannot be ruled out through the day, though the primary severe threat is currently expected with storms that will develop in the wake of early convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture will support pockets of moderate to locally strong destabilization by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moderate midlevel flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment may eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. Details of storm initiation and evolution remain unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging wind and hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, once confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader risk area. ...Ozarks into parts of KS/OK... The trailing portion of the cold front will likely extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modestly supportive deep-layer shear could result in a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MID SOUTH...OZARKS...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Extensive convection may be ongoing Friday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms cannot be ruled out through the day, though the primary severe threat is currently expected with storms that will develop in the wake of early convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture will support pockets of moderate to locally strong destabilization by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moderate midlevel flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment may eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. Details of storm initiation and evolution remain unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging wind and hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, once confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader risk area. ...Ozarks into parts of KS/OK... The trailing portion of the cold front will likely extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modestly supportive deep-layer shear could result in a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MID SOUTH...OZARKS...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Extensive convection may be ongoing Friday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms cannot be ruled out through the day, though the primary severe threat is currently expected with storms that will develop in the wake of early convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture will support pockets of moderate to locally strong destabilization by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moderate midlevel flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment may eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. Details of storm initiation and evolution remain unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging wind and hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, once confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader risk area. ...Ozarks into parts of KS/OK... The trailing portion of the cold front will likely extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modestly supportive deep-layer shear could result in a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MID SOUTH...OZARKS...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Extensive convection may be ongoing Friday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms cannot be ruled out through the day, though the primary severe threat is currently expected with storms that will develop in the wake of early convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture will support pockets of moderate to locally strong destabilization by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moderate midlevel flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment may eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. Details of storm initiation and evolution remain unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging wind and hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, once confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader risk area. ...Ozarks into parts of KS/OK... The trailing portion of the cold front will likely extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modestly supportive deep-layer shear could result in a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MID SOUTH...OZARKS...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Extensive convection may be ongoing Friday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms cannot be ruled out through the day, though the primary severe threat is currently expected with storms that will develop in the wake of early convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture will support pockets of moderate to locally strong destabilization by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moderate midlevel flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment may eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. Details of storm initiation and evolution remain unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging wind and hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, once confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader risk area. ...Ozarks into parts of KS/OK... The trailing portion of the cold front will likely extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modestly supportive deep-layer shear could result in a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MID SOUTH...OZARKS...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Extensive convection may be ongoing Friday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms cannot be ruled out through the day, though the primary severe threat is currently expected with storms that will develop in the wake of early convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture will support pockets of moderate to locally strong destabilization by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moderate midlevel flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment may eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. Details of storm initiation and evolution remain unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging wind and hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, once confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader risk area. ...Ozarks into parts of KS/OK... The trailing portion of the cold front will likely extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modestly supportive deep-layer shear could result in a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MID SOUTH...OZARKS...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Extensive convection may be ongoing Friday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms cannot be ruled out through the day, though the primary severe threat is currently expected with storms that will develop in the wake of early convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture will support pockets of moderate to locally strong destabilization by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moderate midlevel flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment may eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. Details of storm initiation and evolution remain unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging wind and hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, once confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader risk area. ...Ozarks into parts of KS/OK... The trailing portion of the cold front will likely extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modestly supportive deep-layer shear could result in a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MID SOUTH...OZARKS...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Extensive convection may be ongoing Friday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms cannot be ruled out through the day, though the primary severe threat is currently expected with storms that will develop in the wake of early convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture will support pockets of moderate to locally strong destabilization by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moderate midlevel flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment may eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. Details of storm initiation and evolution remain unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging wind and hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, once confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader risk area. ...Ozarks into parts of KS/OK... The trailing portion of the cold front will likely extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modestly supportive deep-layer shear could result in a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more