Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will begin to lift northeastward out of the southern Plains early next week. This feature will generally lose amplitude slowly with time. The surface pattern will be nebulous across the eastern half of the CONUS. By the middle of the week, the mid-level jet may intensify in the Northeast and a surface low will develop and move out of the CONUS by next Thursday. Given this pattern, severe potential ahead of the upper trough appears rather marginal. In addition to the upper-trough, the remnants of TC Beryl are currently forecast to turn eastward through Texas and into the Mid-South early to late next week. While some severe potential could develop ahead of this feature, predictability remains low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will begin to lift northeastward out of the southern Plains early next week. This feature will generally lose amplitude slowly with time. The surface pattern will be nebulous across the eastern half of the CONUS. By the middle of the week, the mid-level jet may intensify in the Northeast and a surface low will develop and move out of the CONUS by next Thursday. Given this pattern, severe potential ahead of the upper trough appears rather marginal. In addition to the upper-trough, the remnants of TC Beryl are currently forecast to turn eastward through Texas and into the Mid-South early to late next week. While some severe potential could develop ahead of this feature, predictability remains low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will begin to lift northeastward out of the southern Plains early next week. This feature will generally lose amplitude slowly with time. The surface pattern will be nebulous across the eastern half of the CONUS. By the middle of the week, the mid-level jet may intensify in the Northeast and a surface low will develop and move out of the CONUS by next Thursday. Given this pattern, severe potential ahead of the upper trough appears rather marginal. In addition to the upper-trough, the remnants of TC Beryl are currently forecast to turn eastward through Texas and into the Mid-South early to late next week. While some severe potential could develop ahead of this feature, predictability remains low at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying early morning convection. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS, 15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas. ...South Texas... Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying early morning convection. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS, 15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas. ...South Texas... Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying early morning convection. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS, 15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas. ...South Texas... Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying early morning convection. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS, 15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas. ...South Texas... Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying early morning convection. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS, 15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas. ...South Texas... Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of the central Plains. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the CONUS with the exception of the West Coast. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a high pressure system will shift eastward into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Around the western flank of this anticyclone, moisture will return northward. A modest surface low will develop in the vicinity of the NE/CO/KS border, though models have some disagreement on how deep this low will become. The main focus for thunderstorm development will be near this surface low and farther east along a weak warm front/theta-e boundary. ...Central/eastern Nebraska...northwest/north-central Kansas... Thunderstorm development is expected during the mid/late afternoon. Upper 50s F dewpoints are expected to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (with some areas perhaps near 2000 J/kg). Relatively cold temperatures aloft (around -12 C at 500 mb) and northwesterly mid/high-level flow with 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote some initial risk for supercells capable of large hail (some 2+ inches). Given the larger temperature-dewpoint spreads, upscale growth will likely occur later in the convective cycle. Severe wind gusts would become more common as this process unfolds. There is some uncertainty with regard to the most favorable area for potential MCS development. There is some signal in guidance that this could occur in western Kansas where slightly greater low-level moisture will be present, mid-level lapse rates will be steeper, and the low-level jet will be focused. Significant severe gusts are possible with an organized MCS, but confidence in placement remain quite low at this time. ...Southern High Plains... With the surface high helping to push moisture back into the southern Rockies and parts of West Texas, a few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon. Convection/outflow is possible prior to the D2/Saturday period on Friday afternoon/evening in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As a result, there is some uncertainty as to how far east the severe threat will reach. Shear will be weaker this far south, but steep low/mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of severe winds and isolated large hail in the strongest storms. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak cold front will move through the region during the afternoon/evening. While a richly moist (70+ F dewpoints) airmass will be in place, the stronger mid-level winds will generally be displaced farther to the northwest. Furthermore, mid-level heights will be near neutral and convergence along the front will be rather weak. Most model guidance continues to suggest limited storm coverage for those reasons. No highlights will be added, but a strong storm or two remains possible. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of the central Plains. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the CONUS with the exception of the West Coast. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a high pressure system will shift eastward into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Around the western flank of this anticyclone, moisture will return northward. A modest surface low will develop in the vicinity of the NE/CO/KS border, though models have some disagreement on how deep this low will become. The main focus for thunderstorm development will be near this surface low and farther east along a weak warm front/theta-e boundary. ...Central/eastern Nebraska...northwest/north-central Kansas... Thunderstorm development is expected during the mid/late afternoon. Upper 50s F dewpoints are expected to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (with some areas perhaps near 2000 J/kg). Relatively cold temperatures aloft (around -12 C at 500 mb) and northwesterly mid/high-level flow with 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote some initial risk for supercells capable of large hail (some 2+ inches). Given the larger temperature-dewpoint spreads, upscale growth will likely occur later in the convective cycle. Severe wind gusts would become more common as this process unfolds. There is some uncertainty with regard to the most favorable area for potential MCS development. There is some signal in guidance that this could occur in western Kansas where slightly greater low-level moisture will be present, mid-level lapse rates will be steeper, and the low-level jet will be focused. Significant severe gusts are possible with an organized MCS, but confidence in placement remain quite low at this time. ...Southern High Plains... With the surface high helping to push moisture back into the southern Rockies and parts of West Texas, a few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon. Convection/outflow is possible prior to the D2/Saturday period on Friday afternoon/evening in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As a result, there is some uncertainty as to how far east the severe threat will reach. Shear will be weaker this far south, but steep low/mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of severe winds and isolated large hail in the strongest storms. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak cold front will move through the region during the afternoon/evening. While a richly moist (70+ F dewpoints) airmass will be in place, the stronger mid-level winds will generally be displaced farther to the northwest. Furthermore, mid-level heights will be near neutral and convergence along the front will be rather weak. Most model guidance continues to suggest limited storm coverage for those reasons. No highlights will be added, but a strong storm or two remains possible. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more