Severe Storms

WW 0621 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MCK TO 30 SW EAR TO 5 SSW BUB. ..SMITH..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC001-019-061-065-077-079-083-093-099-137-163-175-181-140630- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN FURNAS GREELEY HALL HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY PHELPS SHERMAN VALLEY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0621 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MCK TO 30 SW EAR TO 5 SSW BUB. ..SMITH..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC001-019-061-065-077-079-083-093-099-137-163-175-181-140630- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN FURNAS GREELEY HALL HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY PHELPS SHERMAN VALLEY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0621 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MCK TO 30 SW EAR TO 5 SSW BUB. ..SMITH..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC001-019-061-065-077-079-083-093-099-137-163-175-181-140630- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN FURNAS GREELEY HALL HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY PHELPS SHERMAN VALLEY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 621 SEVERE TSTM NE 140430Z - 141200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and south-central Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1130 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of occasionally severe thunderstorms -- which produced a 60-kt at MCK during the last half hour -- will maintain severe potential into the watch area before weakening later tonight. Isolated large hail also may occur, either in the main MCS or in precursory convection. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Kearney NE to 30 miles northeast of Broken Bow NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 620... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S ITR TO 35 WSW MCK TO 15 WNW MCK TO 35 NNW MCK TO 30 W LBF TO 45 SW MHN. ..BROYLES..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-140540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC029-057-063-085-087-111-135-145-140540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DUNDY FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S ITR TO 35 WSW MCK TO 15 WNW MCK TO 35 NNW MCK TO 30 W LBF TO 45 SW MHN. ..BROYLES..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-140540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC029-057-063-085-087-111-135-145-140540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DUNDY FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S ITR TO 35 WSW MCK TO 15 WNW MCK TO 35 NNW MCK TO 30 W LBF TO 45 SW MHN. ..BROYLES..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-140540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC029-057-063-085-087-111-135-145-140540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DUNDY FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S ITR TO 35 WSW MCK TO 15 WNW MCK TO 35 NNW MCK TO 30 W LBF TO 45 SW MHN. ..BROYLES..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-140540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC029-057-063-085-087-111-135-145-140540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DUNDY FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1897 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1897 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...South-central Nebraska and North-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 140300Z - 140500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed as a linear MCS continues to process eastward across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. DISCUSSION...A linear MCS with a history of 60-70 MPH observed winds is continuing to progress across portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, with a pronounced bow echo evident on radar in southern Nebraska. This bow echo will serve as the primary focus for the greatest short-term severe risk over the next few hours. Some uncertainty remains in the eastward longevity of this convective line, but SPC mesoanalysis suggests that continued warm air advection in the low levels has limited nocturnal boundary layer stabilization and subsequent development of MLCINH. The expectation is that the line will eventually weaken with eastward extent, but a new severe thunderstorm watch may be necessary if the line maintains its current strength. ..Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38730069 38710122 39090149 39770154 40740111 41250077 41480026 41539928 41519865 40959811 40389800 39739797 39519820 39369870 39329885 39139940 38910010 38730069 Read more

WW 620 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 132250Z - 140700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 620 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East-central and northeastern Colorado Northwestern Kansas Southwestern Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 450 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially widely scattered strong-severe thunderstorms east of the Front Range should become denser in coverage and organize into one or more clusters, with increasing severe potential over the next several hours as the activity moves eastward across the High Plains, into greater moisture. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Akron CO to 25 miles northeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0621 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0621 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GCK TO 40 SSE ITR TO 40 SW IML TO 40 N IML TO 25 NE LBF. ..HALBERT..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-140440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC029-057-063-085-087-111-135-145-140440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DUNDY FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE LAA TO 45 E AKO TO 45 ENE SNY TO 25 SSW MHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 ..HALBERT..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-125-140340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON YUMA KSC023-039-071-109-153-179-181-193-199-203-140340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC029-057-063-085-087-101-111-113-117-135-145-140340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1896 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 620... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwestern Kansas...and Southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620... Valid 140118Z - 140245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620 continues. SUMMARY...The threat continues for WW 620, where thunderstorms have organized into a linear bowing MCS capable of damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have grown upscale into a linear-bowing MCS, moving eastward off the High Plains and into northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. Reports of 60-70 MPH winds have been associated with this complex, and it is moving into an environment with stronger CAPE/shear combinations that should result in further intensification. Additionally, surface flow ahead of the MCS is nearly perpendicular to the outflow boundary/cold pool, which should aid in maintaining upright convection and maintain MCS intensity with eastward extent. The greatest threat for damaging winds will be at the apex of any bowing segments, especially if a rear inflow jet is able to develop. While the primary threat will be for damaging winds, some brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out due to significant curvature of the low-level hodographs evident in recent KGLD VAD wind profiles, where 0-1 km SRH and 0-3 km SRH have increased to 148 m^2/s^2 and 318 m^2/s^2, respectively. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39220271 39390324 39520349 39740344 39880327 40070315 40340309 40560306 40800302 41070287 41300274 41410208 41410157 41390085 41170025 40959999 40450006 40000041 39590096 39310149 39130186 39220271 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more