Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon across parts of the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of eastern New Mexico. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region today, as southwest flow remains at mid-levels from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. At the surface, a low will move across Lower Michigan, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will yield pockets of moderate instability across parts of the region by afternoon. Some high-resolution model solutions suggest that a line segment will move eastward across parts of middle Tennessee and central Kentucky this morning, and into the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a marginal severe threat with storms that move into areas with sufficient instability. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. This potential should extend northward into the eastern Great Lakes and into parts of Pennsylvania and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Concerning the details of today's convective scenario, confidence is low mainly due to the wide variance of instability among the models. ...Eastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the southern and central Plains today. Near this trough, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico. Upslope flow will be in place across eastern New Mexico, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be near 60 F. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico by early afternoon, with other storms developing in the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings during the mid to late afternoon in eastern New Mexico near the axis of strongest instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking above 8 C/km. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat. Rotating cells could produce isolated severe hail. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible with the stronger cells. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon across parts of the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of eastern New Mexico. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region today, as southwest flow remains at mid-levels from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. At the surface, a low will move across Lower Michigan, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will yield pockets of moderate instability across parts of the region by afternoon. Some high-resolution model solutions suggest that a line segment will move eastward across parts of middle Tennessee and central Kentucky this morning, and into the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a marginal severe threat with storms that move into areas with sufficient instability. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. This potential should extend northward into the eastern Great Lakes and into parts of Pennsylvania and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Concerning the details of today's convective scenario, confidence is low mainly due to the wide variance of instability among the models. ...Eastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the southern and central Plains today. Near this trough, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico. Upslope flow will be in place across eastern New Mexico, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be near 60 F. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico by early afternoon, with other storms developing in the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings during the mid to late afternoon in eastern New Mexico near the axis of strongest instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking above 8 C/km. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat. Rotating cells could produce isolated severe hail. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible with the stronger cells. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon across parts of the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of eastern New Mexico. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region today, as southwest flow remains at mid-levels from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. At the surface, a low will move across Lower Michigan, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will yield pockets of moderate instability across parts of the region by afternoon. Some high-resolution model solutions suggest that a line segment will move eastward across parts of middle Tennessee and central Kentucky this morning, and into the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a marginal severe threat with storms that move into areas with sufficient instability. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. This potential should extend northward into the eastern Great Lakes and into parts of Pennsylvania and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Concerning the details of today's convective scenario, confidence is low mainly due to the wide variance of instability among the models. ...Eastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the southern and central Plains today. Near this trough, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico. Upslope flow will be in place across eastern New Mexico, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be near 60 F. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico by early afternoon, with other storms developing in the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings during the mid to late afternoon in eastern New Mexico near the axis of strongest instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking above 8 C/km. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat. Rotating cells could produce isolated severe hail. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible with the stronger cells. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening in parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest surface analysis has a cold front analyzed from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central/northeast Oklahoma and western Missouri. A moist airmass is located along the front, with surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to the upper 70s F. RAP analysis has MLCAPE near the front ranging from around 2000 J/kg in the southeast Texas Panhandle to near 4000 J/kg in northeast Oklahoma. WSR-88D VWPs near Oklahoma City and Tulsa generally have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This, along with the moderate to strong instability should be enough to continue a marginal severe threat this evening. The marginal threat is expected to develop into the southern Ozarks over the next few hours, as new convection initiates. The stronger cells near the instability axis could also be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving through the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass is located ahead of the front, with a surface low over the upper Mississippi Valley. A cold front extends south-southwestward through northeastern and central Iowa. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are generally are in the 65 to 70 F range, with RAP analysis showing MLCAPE from 1000 to 1200 J/kg. Thunderstorms are ongoing along and near an axis of instability. Near this axis, the WSR-88D VWP at Lacrosse, Wisconsin has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This, along with the amount of instability should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A few isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening in parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest surface analysis has a cold front analyzed from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central/northeast Oklahoma and western Missouri. A moist airmass is located along the front, with surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to the upper 70s F. RAP analysis has MLCAPE near the front ranging from around 2000 J/kg in the southeast Texas Panhandle to near 4000 J/kg in northeast Oklahoma. WSR-88D VWPs near Oklahoma City and Tulsa generally have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This, along with the moderate to strong instability should be enough to continue a marginal severe threat this evening. The marginal threat is expected to develop into the southern Ozarks over the next few hours, as new convection initiates. The stronger cells near the instability axis could also be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving through the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass is located ahead of the front, with a surface low over the upper Mississippi Valley. A cold front extends south-southwestward through northeastern and central Iowa. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are generally are in the 65 to 70 F range, with RAP analysis showing MLCAPE from 1000 to 1200 J/kg. Thunderstorms are ongoing along and near an axis of instability. Near this axis, the WSR-88D VWP at Lacrosse, Wisconsin has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This, along with the amount of instability should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A few isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 07/05/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 4 23:45:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1536 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Areas affected...Portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042201Z - 050000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms with a few severe gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail are possible this afternoon across portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing this afternoon near the Texas/New Mexico border and across the southern Texas Panhandle in an environment characterized by large dewpoint depressions and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles per surface observations and short-term RAP forecasts. These storms are also situated well south of the best deep layer shear in an environment with 20 kts or less of effective bulk shear. Due to the large evaporative cooling potential with the inverted-V thermodynamic profiles and steep low-level lapse rates, some downburst activity is possible, and this may result in a few severe gusts. Additionally, with the deep CAPE profile, most of which is above the freezing level, some marginally severe hail is possible with some of the stronger storms. With time, storms expected to continue moving slowly to the east with short-term guidance dissipating most convection near sunset. Additionally, some storm clustering and merging of cold pools may occur, and this may also result in a risk for severe gusts. ..Supinie/Hart.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33020444 34200365 34620281 34820159 34850011 34609975 34289968 33400077 32520152 30810237 30140331 30180393 31550452 33020444 Read more

MD 1537 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1537 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Areas affected...Southern Missouri...northern Arkansas...far southern Illinois...far western Kentucky...and far northwestern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042237Z - 042330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few severe storms damaging gusts and maybe some marginally severe hail are possible across portions of southern Missouri, northern Arkansas, far southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, and far northwestern Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed along a weak cold front across portions of southern Missouri and southern Illinois and along a surface pressure trough across portions of northeastern Arkansas. These storms are along the southern periphery of the better mid-level flow, with 30-35 kts of effective bulk shear in the environment, enough for multicells or weak supercells. Short-term RAP forecast thermodynamic profiles also show somewhat steep low-level lapse rates and modestly high precipitable water values, which may result in wet microbursts with a few damaging gusts. Due to straight hodographs with weak low-level shear and modest deep-layer shear with deep CAPE profiles, some marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Clustering of storms may be limited given sparse convective coverage, which may limit the wind damage potential, and storms may wane near sunset. ..Supinie/Hart.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37369317 37059412 36699456 36049449 35369422 35159212 35089083 35438972 35718918 36048867 36688836 37368834 37598871 37718934 37369317 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 4 21:55:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1535 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND VICINITY.
Mesoscale Discussion 1535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Areas affected...from southwest Oklahoma into southwest Missouri...and vicinity. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041910Z - 042145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form after 20Z, with scattered strong to possibly severe downbursts. DISCUSSION...A surface trough and wind shift extend roughly from northwest TX across central OK and into southwest MO. Low pressure was noted over southwest OK, with substantial moisture convergence along the boundary. GPS PWAT values remain at over 1.75" over most of the area, even extending as far southwest as Childress, TX. While midlevel lapse rates are modest, low-level lapse rates are steepening, resulting in moderate instability overall. Towering CU near the boundary should form into storms over the next few hours, with multicellular storm mode supporting brief strong to severe outflows. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35179534 34489786 34190004 34470033 35090011 35609958 36419755 37189566 37589467 37569414 37419387 37099372 36699368 36079380 35799395 35549428 35179534 Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO 25 SSW LEX TO 40 NW JKL TO 35 W HTS. ..MOORE..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC021-025-063-065-079-085-093-109-123-129-151-153-155-165-175- 189-197-205-237-042240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYLE BREATHITT ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD GRAYSON HARDIN JACKSON LARUE LEE MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MENIFEE MORGAN OWSLEY POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more