Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE LHX TO 25 S AKO TO 15 E SNY TO 40 WSW MHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 ..HALBERT..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-121-125-140240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-071-109-153-179-181-193-199-203-140240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-029-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-111-113-117-135-145- 140240- Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW LIC TO 35 SW AKO TO 30 N SNY. ..HALBERT..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-075-095-115-121-125-140140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-071-109-153-179-181-193-199-203-140140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-111-113-117-135-145- 140140- NE Read more

MD 1894 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING...NORTHERN UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1894 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Idaho...Western Wyoming...Northern Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132148Z - 140015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a few more hours. Hail and gusty winds will be the primary threats. The severe threats should remain too marginal for weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis suggest that a shortwave trough is moving through the northern Rockies. Lift associated with this feature, is supporting scattered thunderstorm development near a pocket of moderate instability from northern Utah into eastern Idaho. MLCAPE within this area is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Mid-level lapse rates are also steep. In addition, the latest WSR-88D at Pocatello, Idaho has 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with speed shear mostly in the mid-levels. This should be enough for locally strong to severe convection. A rotating storm or two will be possible with hail and gusty winds as the primary threats. The marginal severe threat may persist into the early evening. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 42501262 41431293 40251316 39681288 39571231 39841140 40571059 42001000 43070973 44060967 44440987 44701038 44731090 44581150 44221193 43661227 42871252 42501262 Read more

MD 1894 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING...NORTHERN UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1894 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Idaho...Western Wyoming...Northern Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132148Z - 140015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a few more hours. Hail and gusty winds will be the primary threats. The severe threats should remain too marginal for weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis suggest that a shortwave trough is moving through the northern Rockies. Lift associated with this feature, is supporting scattered thunderstorm development near a pocket of moderate instability from northern Utah into eastern Idaho. MLCAPE within this area is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Mid-level lapse rates are also steep. In addition, the latest WSR-88D at Pocatello, Idaho has 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with speed shear mostly in the mid-levels. This should be enough for locally strong to severe convection. A rotating storm or two will be possible with hail and gusty winds as the primary threats. The marginal severe threat may persist into the early evening. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 42501262 41431293 40251316 39681288 39571231 39841140 40571059 42001000 43070973 44060967 44440987 44701038 44731090 44581150 44221193 43661227 42871252 42501262 Read more

MD 1895 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1895 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...Southwestern Nebraska...and Northeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 132231Z - 132330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed across portions of eastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska, as convection is expected to organize into a MCS capable of damaging gusts later this evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms have developed over the High Plains of Colorado this afternoon, and are expected to continue to move eastward into a more favorable environment for convective organization. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts (with a substantial warm-frontal boundary-parallel component of the vectors), along with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, will support further organization of these clusters into a linear convective system capable of damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for damaging winds will be with any bowing segments that develop as convection matures later this evening. Large hail will be possible, particularly in the transition from multicell/supercell clusters into a linear system, though mid-level lapse rates of ~6.5 C/km could potentially be a limiting factor. Some tornado potential exists in the early evening transition period, when the nocturnal low-level jet will produce enlarged/curved hodoraphs with lots of streamwise vorticity in the lowest levels. However, the largely boundary-parallel shear vectors, along with colliding thunderstorm outflows, will limit any long-lived tornado potential. ..Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41540080 41180009 40959995 40310004 39630077 39110170 39020216 39120313 39200397 39430423 39810432 40150436 40520433 40780430 41120419 41450382 41510321 41580282 41590196 41540080 Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0620 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0620 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 620 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 132250Z - 140700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 620 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East-central and northeastern Colorado Northwestern Kansas Southwestern Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 450 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially widely scattered strong-severe thunderstorms east of the Front Range should become denser in coverage and organize into one or more clusters, with increasing severe potential over the next several hours as the activity moves eastward across the High Plains, into greater moisture. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Akron CO to 25 miles northeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Edwards Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 13 22:46:01 UTC 2024.

MD 1893 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO...FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1893 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...Portions of east-central Colorado...far southeast Wyoming...and the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132042Z - 132245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail and locally damaging gusts are possible this afternoon. The severe threat should eventually increase farther east into this evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated/discrete thunderstorms are evolving along/immediately east of the Colorado Rockies and northward into the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon, as diurnal heating continues to erode MLCINH along a surface wind shift/lee trough. Over the next couple hours, a few of these storms may intensify and pose a risk of isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts -- aided by around 30 kt of 0-6 km shear (sampled by DEN VWP and latest ACARS soundings). Overall, weak instability and limited large-scale forcing should limit the severe threat with these initial thunderstorms. With time, thunderstorms should increase in coverage and spread eastward into richer boundary-layer moisture and associated instability -- which should favor an increasing severe risk into this evening. A watch is not expected for the initial thunderstorms developing along/immediately east of the higher terrain in the near-term, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38650355 38140329 37670323 37460350 37340384 37410430 37930458 38330473 39600525 40120530 40550522 41310468 41810418 42500349 42440298 42150272 41580283 41100325 40260381 39490387 38650355 Read more

MD 1892 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA....WESTERN WYOMING...EASTERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1892 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...parts of southwestern Montana....western Wyoming...eastern Idaho and northern Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131850Z - 132115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered stronger storms will probably continue to develop and intensify through 3-4 PM MDT, with at least a couple becoming severe and posing a risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Due to the relatively isolated nature of the severe threat, a severe weather watch appears unlikely, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Precipitable water in excess of 1 inch is advecting northward in a narrow plume, near and to the west of the Wasatch toward the mountains of southwestern Montana. This is occurring in advance of a mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation now progressing east-northeastward across the northern Intermountain Region, and contributing to modest destabilization with daytime heating. Mixed-layer CAPE is now in excess of 1000 J/kg, with large-scale forcing for ascent contributing to weakening inhibition and increasing scattered thunderstorm development. Into and through 21-23Z, a gradual further intensification of storms appears likely, aided by increasingly unstable low-level storm-relative inflow, in the presence of strengthening westerly mid/upper wind fields, including 30-50 kt in the 500-300 mb layer. The evolution of widely scattered supercells is possible, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 41391352 42421292 43221291 43761314 44321324 44751313 45681217 46021090 45590996 44280975 41801078 40851160 40691295 41391352 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily be limited to portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin through the remainder of the work week and over the weekend. The general consensus among long-range guidance is that a highly amplified pattern will gradually become established through the weekend with ridging over the central CONUS and troughing along the West Coast. This pattern will maintain dry conditions across CA, NV, and central to western TX with rain/thunderstorm chances elsewhere. Dry fuels across much of the West will support fire weather concerns as a round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms overspreads the Pacific Northwest on Thursday and as winds increase across NV over the weekend. ...D3/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period (12 UTC Thursday) across portions of OR as a shortwave trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery off the CA coast) moves across the region. Ensemble guidance continues to show modest probabilities for wetting rainfall (25-50%) and high probability for EL temperatures below -20 C during the 00 UTC Thur to 00 UTC Fri period, suggesting some potential for dry thunderstorms. Given dry fuels already in place across the region, these storms will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...D5/Sat to D6/Sun - Nevada... As the longwave trough becomes established along/off the West Coast, shortwave disturbances embedded within the mean flow will propagate into the Great Basin. Latest ensemble guidance has trended towards slightly stronger waves moving across the region over the weekend, resulting a more robust low-level mass response that should support breezy downslope winds across portions of central NV and maintain very low relative humidity values. Low-end (40%) risk probabilities have been introduced across parts of NV where ensemble guidance shows the highest probability for winds between 15-20 mph. Similar conditions are possible heading into early next week, but confidence in the coverage of such conditions is limited. ...Texas... Hot conditions will gradually become more expansive through the forecast period, especially across central to northern TX where temperatures in excess of 105 F will be common. While the Red River Valley will likely be the southward extent of appreciable rain chances towards the end of the week and into the weekend, parts of central to western TX should remain fairly dry. Several fires have been reported in recent days, and the potential for new starts should increase as temperatures climb and the coverage of available fuels expands. The building upper ridge will modulate surface wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat, but trends will be monitored given the warming/drying trend. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily be limited to portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin through the remainder of the work week and over the weekend. The general consensus among long-range guidance is that a highly amplified pattern will gradually become established through the weekend with ridging over the central CONUS and troughing along the West Coast. This pattern will maintain dry conditions across CA, NV, and central to western TX with rain/thunderstorm chances elsewhere. Dry fuels across much of the West will support fire weather concerns as a round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms overspreads the Pacific Northwest on Thursday and as winds increase across NV over the weekend. ...D3/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period (12 UTC Thursday) across portions of OR as a shortwave trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery off the CA coast) moves across the region. Ensemble guidance continues to show modest probabilities for wetting rainfall (25-50%) and high probability for EL temperatures below -20 C during the 00 UTC Thur to 00 UTC Fri period, suggesting some potential for dry thunderstorms. Given dry fuels already in place across the region, these storms will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...D5/Sat to D6/Sun - Nevada... As the longwave trough becomes established along/off the West Coast, shortwave disturbances embedded within the mean flow will propagate into the Great Basin. Latest ensemble guidance has trended towards slightly stronger waves moving across the region over the weekend, resulting a more robust low-level mass response that should support breezy downslope winds across portions of central NV and maintain very low relative humidity values. Low-end (40%) risk probabilities have been introduced across parts of NV where ensemble guidance shows the highest probability for winds between 15-20 mph. Similar conditions are possible heading into early next week, but confidence in the coverage of such conditions is limited. ...Texas... Hot conditions will gradually become more expansive through the forecast period, especially across central to northern TX where temperatures in excess of 105 F will be common. While the Red River Valley will likely be the southward extent of appreciable rain chances towards the end of the week and into the weekend, parts of central to western TX should remain fairly dry. Several fires have been reported in recent days, and the potential for new starts should increase as temperatures climb and the coverage of available fuels expands. The building upper ridge will modulate surface wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat, but trends will be monitored given the warming/drying trend. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily be limited to portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin through the remainder of the work week and over the weekend. The general consensus among long-range guidance is that a highly amplified pattern will gradually become established through the weekend with ridging over the central CONUS and troughing along the West Coast. This pattern will maintain dry conditions across CA, NV, and central to western TX with rain/thunderstorm chances elsewhere. Dry fuels across much of the West will support fire weather concerns as a round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms overspreads the Pacific Northwest on Thursday and as winds increase across NV over the weekend. ...D3/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period (12 UTC Thursday) across portions of OR as a shortwave trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery off the CA coast) moves across the region. Ensemble guidance continues to show modest probabilities for wetting rainfall (25-50%) and high probability for EL temperatures below -20 C during the 00 UTC Thur to 00 UTC Fri period, suggesting some potential for dry thunderstorms. Given dry fuels already in place across the region, these storms will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...D5/Sat to D6/Sun - Nevada... As the longwave trough becomes established along/off the West Coast, shortwave disturbances embedded within the mean flow will propagate into the Great Basin. Latest ensemble guidance has trended towards slightly stronger waves moving across the region over the weekend, resulting a more robust low-level mass response that should support breezy downslope winds across portions of central NV and maintain very low relative humidity values. Low-end (40%) risk probabilities have been introduced across parts of NV where ensemble guidance shows the highest probability for winds between 15-20 mph. Similar conditions are possible heading into early next week, but confidence in the coverage of such conditions is limited. ...Texas... Hot conditions will gradually become more expansive through the forecast period, especially across central to northern TX where temperatures in excess of 105 F will be common. While the Red River Valley will likely be the southward extent of appreciable rain chances towards the end of the week and into the weekend, parts of central to western TX should remain fairly dry. Several fires have been reported in recent days, and the potential for new starts should increase as temperatures climb and the coverage of available fuels expands. The building upper ridge will modulate surface wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat, but trends will be monitored given the warming/drying trend. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily be limited to portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin through the remainder of the work week and over the weekend. The general consensus among long-range guidance is that a highly amplified pattern will gradually become established through the weekend with ridging over the central CONUS and troughing along the West Coast. This pattern will maintain dry conditions across CA, NV, and central to western TX with rain/thunderstorm chances elsewhere. Dry fuels across much of the West will support fire weather concerns as a round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms overspreads the Pacific Northwest on Thursday and as winds increase across NV over the weekend. ...D3/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period (12 UTC Thursday) across portions of OR as a shortwave trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery off the CA coast) moves across the region. Ensemble guidance continues to show modest probabilities for wetting rainfall (25-50%) and high probability for EL temperatures below -20 C during the 00 UTC Thur to 00 UTC Fri period, suggesting some potential for dry thunderstorms. Given dry fuels already in place across the region, these storms will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...D5/Sat to D6/Sun - Nevada... As the longwave trough becomes established along/off the West Coast, shortwave disturbances embedded within the mean flow will propagate into the Great Basin. Latest ensemble guidance has trended towards slightly stronger waves moving across the region over the weekend, resulting a more robust low-level mass response that should support breezy downslope winds across portions of central NV and maintain very low relative humidity values. Low-end (40%) risk probabilities have been introduced across parts of NV where ensemble guidance shows the highest probability for winds between 15-20 mph. Similar conditions are possible heading into early next week, but confidence in the coverage of such conditions is limited. ...Texas... Hot conditions will gradually become more expansive through the forecast period, especially across central to northern TX where temperatures in excess of 105 F will be common. While the Red River Valley will likely be the southward extent of appreciable rain chances towards the end of the week and into the weekend, parts of central to western TX should remain fairly dry. Several fires have been reported in recent days, and the potential for new starts should increase as temperatures climb and the coverage of available fuels expands. The building upper ridge will modulate surface wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat, but trends will be monitored given the warming/drying trend. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily be limited to portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin through the remainder of the work week and over the weekend. The general consensus among long-range guidance is that a highly amplified pattern will gradually become established through the weekend with ridging over the central CONUS and troughing along the West Coast. This pattern will maintain dry conditions across CA, NV, and central to western TX with rain/thunderstorm chances elsewhere. Dry fuels across much of the West will support fire weather concerns as a round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms overspreads the Pacific Northwest on Thursday and as winds increase across NV over the weekend. ...D3/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period (12 UTC Thursday) across portions of OR as a shortwave trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery off the CA coast) moves across the region. Ensemble guidance continues to show modest probabilities for wetting rainfall (25-50%) and high probability for EL temperatures below -20 C during the 00 UTC Thur to 00 UTC Fri period, suggesting some potential for dry thunderstorms. Given dry fuels already in place across the region, these storms will likely pose a fire weather concern. ...D5/Sat to D6/Sun - Nevada... As the longwave trough becomes established along/off the West Coast, shortwave disturbances embedded within the mean flow will propagate into the Great Basin. Latest ensemble guidance has trended towards slightly stronger waves moving across the region over the weekend, resulting a more robust low-level mass response that should support breezy downslope winds across portions of central NV and maintain very low relative humidity values. Low-end (40%) risk probabilities have been introduced across parts of NV where ensemble guidance shows the highest probability for winds between 15-20 mph. Similar conditions are possible heading into early next week, but confidence in the coverage of such conditions is limited. ...Texas... Hot conditions will gradually become more expansive through the forecast period, especially across central to northern TX where temperatures in excess of 105 F will be common. While the Red River Valley will likely be the southward extent of appreciable rain chances towards the end of the week and into the weekend, parts of central to western TX should remain fairly dry. Several fires have been reported in recent days, and the potential for new starts should increase as temperatures climb and the coverage of available fuels expands. The building upper ridge will modulate surface wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat, but trends will be monitored given the warming/drying trend. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more