Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0506 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0506 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1538 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE AND FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1538 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...southern Ohio...western West Virginia...northeastern Tennessee and far western Virginia. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051256Z - 051530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The atmosphere is destabilizing this morning across the Tennessee/Ohio Valley which may support an increased severe weather threat. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has continued through much of the overnight period with 30 to 40 knot convective wind gusts and sporadic wind damage. The airmass ahead of these storms is very moist with dewpoints in the mid 70s and a mean mixing ratio of 17.8 g/kg on the 12Z BNA RAOB. In addition, the wind profile is more favorable than anticipated with 40 knots of effective shear. Inhibition will be eroded by mid to late morning as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s ahead of this line of storms. Modifying the 12Z BNA RAOB for mid 80F temperatures suggests 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with a mostly uncapped surface parcel. Therefore, expect the storms in this line to intensify by mid to late morning with an increasing damaging wind threat. The 12Z ILN RAOB showed significant drying from 00Z, indicating the prohibitive environment north of the front which is currently across southern Ohio. Therefore, expect the severe weather threat to be confined to areas south of this boundary. ..Bentley/Smith.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 36588554 37548538 38798486 39188258 39308168 38278133 37138156 36188269 35638420 35558521 35648546 36588554 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible midday into the afternoon across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the central and southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts 50-65 mph will be the primary severe hazard. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough and associated low moving east across the mid to upper MS Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-60 kt) will move through the base of the trough from the lower MO Valley east-northeastward through IN/OH and into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Upstream of this disturbance, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will move southeastward from AB into MT during the day. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... A convectively augmented lead disturbance over the lower OH Valley will continue to progress eastward today ahead of a larger-scale trough forecast to pivot east across the OH Valley. An ongoing squall line from southern IN to the AL/TN border, will move east into a very moist and destabilizing airmass. Surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower to mid 70s deg F dewpoints from north-central AL north-northeastward through the central Appalachians and OH River vicinity. A belt of stronger mid-level southwesterly flow will likely remain north of the OH River, but some enhancement to 2-6 km flow (reference Memphis, Paducah, Fort Campbell, and Evansville WSR-88D VADs) will likely spread downstream across TN/KY and into southern OH and WV. Visible-satellite imagery denotes strong heating will occur ahead of the MCS, thereby contributing to upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon (2400 J/kg MLCAPE per Nashville 12 UTC raob). Organized multicells (via the MCS) will be capable of scattered 50-65 mph gusts and wind damage. Farther south into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/VA Piedmont, weaker flow but very moist/unstable conditions later today will support scattered thunderstorms and an isolated risk for damaging gusts with the stronger wet microbursts. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower MI across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into PA and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler which will aid in steeper mid-level lapse rates. Localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk. ...Eastern New Mexico... Southwestern periphery of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow will glance the southern High Plains in between a mid-level anticyclone centered near the northern CA coast and the larger-scale trough over the Midwest. Strong heating and moist upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps transient supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...MT... Aforementioned mid-level impulse will move into central/eastern MT this afternoon/evening. Strong heating amidst 40s dewpoints will yield weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) but steep lapse rates. A few stronger storms may be capable of locally severe gusts for a few hours late this afternoon before this activity subsides later this evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible midday into the afternoon across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the central and southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts 50-65 mph will be the primary severe hazard. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough and associated low moving east across the mid to upper MS Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-60 kt) will move through the base of the trough from the lower MO Valley east-northeastward through IN/OH and into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Upstream of this disturbance, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will move southeastward from AB into MT during the day. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... A convectively augmented lead disturbance over the lower OH Valley will continue to progress eastward today ahead of a larger-scale trough forecast to pivot east across the OH Valley. An ongoing squall line from southern IN to the AL/TN border, will move east into a very moist and destabilizing airmass. Surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower to mid 70s deg F dewpoints from north-central AL north-northeastward through the central Appalachians and OH River vicinity. A belt of stronger mid-level southwesterly flow will likely remain north of the OH River, but some enhancement to 2-6 km flow (reference Memphis, Paducah, Fort Campbell, and Evansville WSR-88D VADs) will likely spread downstream across TN/KY and into southern OH and WV. Visible-satellite imagery denotes strong heating will occur ahead of the MCS, thereby contributing to upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon (2400 J/kg MLCAPE per Nashville 12 UTC raob). Organized multicells (via the MCS) will be capable of scattered 50-65 mph gusts and wind damage. Farther south into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/VA Piedmont, weaker flow but very moist/unstable conditions later today will support scattered thunderstorms and an isolated risk for damaging gusts with the stronger wet microbursts. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower MI across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into PA and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler which will aid in steeper mid-level lapse rates. Localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk. ...Eastern New Mexico... Southwestern periphery of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow will glance the southern High Plains in between a mid-level anticyclone centered near the northern CA coast and the larger-scale trough over the Midwest. Strong heating and moist upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps transient supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...MT... Aforementioned mid-level impulse will move into central/eastern MT this afternoon/evening. Strong heating amidst 40s dewpoints will yield weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) but steep lapse rates. A few stronger storms may be capable of locally severe gusts for a few hours late this afternoon before this activity subsides later this evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible midday into the afternoon across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the central and southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts 50-65 mph will be the primary severe hazard. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough and associated low moving east across the mid to upper MS Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-60 kt) will move through the base of the trough from the lower MO Valley east-northeastward through IN/OH and into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Upstream of this disturbance, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will move southeastward from AB into MT during the day. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... A convectively augmented lead disturbance over the lower OH Valley will continue to progress eastward today ahead of a larger-scale trough forecast to pivot east across the OH Valley. An ongoing squall line from southern IN to the AL/TN border, will move east into a very moist and destabilizing airmass. Surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower to mid 70s deg F dewpoints from north-central AL north-northeastward through the central Appalachians and OH River vicinity. A belt of stronger mid-level southwesterly flow will likely remain north of the OH River, but some enhancement to 2-6 km flow (reference Memphis, Paducah, Fort Campbell, and Evansville WSR-88D VADs) will likely spread downstream across TN/KY and into southern OH and WV. Visible-satellite imagery denotes strong heating will occur ahead of the MCS, thereby contributing to upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon (2400 J/kg MLCAPE per Nashville 12 UTC raob). Organized multicells (via the MCS) will be capable of scattered 50-65 mph gusts and wind damage. Farther south into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/VA Piedmont, weaker flow but very moist/unstable conditions later today will support scattered thunderstorms and an isolated risk for damaging gusts with the stronger wet microbursts. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower MI across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into PA and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler which will aid in steeper mid-level lapse rates. Localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk. ...Eastern New Mexico... Southwestern periphery of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow will glance the southern High Plains in between a mid-level anticyclone centered near the northern CA coast and the larger-scale trough over the Midwest. Strong heating and moist upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps transient supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...MT... Aforementioned mid-level impulse will move into central/eastern MT this afternoon/evening. Strong heating amidst 40s dewpoints will yield weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) but steep lapse rates. A few stronger storms may be capable of locally severe gusts for a few hours late this afternoon before this activity subsides later this evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible midday into the afternoon across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the central and southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts 50-65 mph will be the primary severe hazard. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough and associated low moving east across the mid to upper MS Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-60 kt) will move through the base of the trough from the lower MO Valley east-northeastward through IN/OH and into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Upstream of this disturbance, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will move southeastward from AB into MT during the day. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... A convectively augmented lead disturbance over the lower OH Valley will continue to progress eastward today ahead of a larger-scale trough forecast to pivot east across the OH Valley. An ongoing squall line from southern IN to the AL/TN border, will move east into a very moist and destabilizing airmass. Surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower to mid 70s deg F dewpoints from north-central AL north-northeastward through the central Appalachians and OH River vicinity. A belt of stronger mid-level southwesterly flow will likely remain north of the OH River, but some enhancement to 2-6 km flow (reference Memphis, Paducah, Fort Campbell, and Evansville WSR-88D VADs) will likely spread downstream across TN/KY and into southern OH and WV. Visible-satellite imagery denotes strong heating will occur ahead of the MCS, thereby contributing to upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon (2400 J/kg MLCAPE per Nashville 12 UTC raob). Organized multicells (via the MCS) will be capable of scattered 50-65 mph gusts and wind damage. Farther south into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/VA Piedmont, weaker flow but very moist/unstable conditions later today will support scattered thunderstorms and an isolated risk for damaging gusts with the stronger wet microbursts. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower MI across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into PA and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler which will aid in steeper mid-level lapse rates. Localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk. ...Eastern New Mexico... Southwestern periphery of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow will glance the southern High Plains in between a mid-level anticyclone centered near the northern CA coast and the larger-scale trough over the Midwest. Strong heating and moist upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps transient supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...MT... Aforementioned mid-level impulse will move into central/eastern MT this afternoon/evening. Strong heating amidst 40s dewpoints will yield weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) but steep lapse rates. A few stronger storms may be capable of locally severe gusts for a few hours late this afternoon before this activity subsides later this evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible midday into the afternoon across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the central and southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts 50-65 mph will be the primary severe hazard. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough and associated low moving east across the mid to upper MS Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-60 kt) will move through the base of the trough from the lower MO Valley east-northeastward through IN/OH and into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Upstream of this disturbance, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will move southeastward from AB into MT during the day. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... A convectively augmented lead disturbance over the lower OH Valley will continue to progress eastward today ahead of a larger-scale trough forecast to pivot east across the OH Valley. An ongoing squall line from southern IN to the AL/TN border, will move east into a very moist and destabilizing airmass. Surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower to mid 70s deg F dewpoints from north-central AL north-northeastward through the central Appalachians and OH River vicinity. A belt of stronger mid-level southwesterly flow will likely remain north of the OH River, but some enhancement to 2-6 km flow (reference Memphis, Paducah, Fort Campbell, and Evansville WSR-88D VADs) will likely spread downstream across TN/KY and into southern OH and WV. Visible-satellite imagery denotes strong heating will occur ahead of the MCS, thereby contributing to upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon (2400 J/kg MLCAPE per Nashville 12 UTC raob). Organized multicells (via the MCS) will be capable of scattered 50-65 mph gusts and wind damage. Farther south into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/VA Piedmont, weaker flow but very moist/unstable conditions later today will support scattered thunderstorms and an isolated risk for damaging gusts with the stronger wet microbursts. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower MI across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into PA and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler which will aid in steeper mid-level lapse rates. Localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk. ...Eastern New Mexico... Southwestern periphery of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow will glance the southern High Plains in between a mid-level anticyclone centered near the northern CA coast and the larger-scale trough over the Midwest. Strong heating and moist upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps transient supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...MT... Aforementioned mid-level impulse will move into central/eastern MT this afternoon/evening. Strong heating amidst 40s dewpoints will yield weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) but steep lapse rates. A few stronger storms may be capable of locally severe gusts for a few hours late this afternoon before this activity subsides later this evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible midday into the afternoon across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the central and southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts 50-65 mph will be the primary severe hazard. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough and associated low moving east across the mid to upper MS Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-60 kt) will move through the base of the trough from the lower MO Valley east-northeastward through IN/OH and into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Upstream of this disturbance, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will move southeastward from AB into MT during the day. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... A convectively augmented lead disturbance over the lower OH Valley will continue to progress eastward today ahead of a larger-scale trough forecast to pivot east across the OH Valley. An ongoing squall line from southern IN to the AL/TN border, will move east into a very moist and destabilizing airmass. Surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower to mid 70s deg F dewpoints from north-central AL north-northeastward through the central Appalachians and OH River vicinity. A belt of stronger mid-level southwesterly flow will likely remain north of the OH River, but some enhancement to 2-6 km flow (reference Memphis, Paducah, Fort Campbell, and Evansville WSR-88D VADs) will likely spread downstream across TN/KY and into southern OH and WV. Visible-satellite imagery denotes strong heating will occur ahead of the MCS, thereby contributing to upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon (2400 J/kg MLCAPE per Nashville 12 UTC raob). Organized multicells (via the MCS) will be capable of scattered 50-65 mph gusts and wind damage. Farther south into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/VA Piedmont, weaker flow but very moist/unstable conditions later today will support scattered thunderstorms and an isolated risk for damaging gusts with the stronger wet microbursts. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower MI across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into PA and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler which will aid in steeper mid-level lapse rates. Localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk. ...Eastern New Mexico... Southwestern periphery of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow will glance the southern High Plains in between a mid-level anticyclone centered near the northern CA coast and the larger-scale trough over the Midwest. Strong heating and moist upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps transient supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...MT... Aforementioned mid-level impulse will move into central/eastern MT this afternoon/evening. Strong heating amidst 40s dewpoints will yield weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) but steep lapse rates. A few stronger storms may be capable of locally severe gusts for a few hours late this afternoon before this activity subsides later this evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/05/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will begin to lift northeastward out of the southern Plains early next week. This feature will generally lose amplitude slowly with time. The surface pattern will be nebulous across the eastern half of the CONUS. By the middle of the week, the mid-level jet may intensify in the Northeast and a surface low will develop and move out of the CONUS by next Thursday. Given this pattern, severe potential ahead of the upper trough appears rather marginal. In addition to the upper-trough, the remnants of TC Beryl are currently forecast to turn eastward through Texas and into the Mid-South early to late next week. While some severe potential could develop ahead of this feature, predictability remains low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will begin to lift northeastward out of the southern Plains early next week. This feature will generally lose amplitude slowly with time. The surface pattern will be nebulous across the eastern half of the CONUS. By the middle of the week, the mid-level jet may intensify in the Northeast and a surface low will develop and move out of the CONUS by next Thursday. Given this pattern, severe potential ahead of the upper trough appears rather marginal. In addition to the upper-trough, the remnants of TC Beryl are currently forecast to turn eastward through Texas and into the Mid-South early to late next week. While some severe potential could develop ahead of this feature, predictability remains low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will begin to lift northeastward out of the southern Plains early next week. This feature will generally lose amplitude slowly with time. The surface pattern will be nebulous across the eastern half of the CONUS. By the middle of the week, the mid-level jet may intensify in the Northeast and a surface low will develop and move out of the CONUS by next Thursday. Given this pattern, severe potential ahead of the upper trough appears rather marginal. In addition to the upper-trough, the remnants of TC Beryl are currently forecast to turn eastward through Texas and into the Mid-South early to late next week. While some severe potential could develop ahead of this feature, predictability remains low at this time. Read more