Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0505 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0505 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/04/2024 Read more