Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... The Critical area in Utah was expanded slightly westward and eastward based on the latest surface observations, high-resolution guidance, and an ongoing large fire (evident in shortwave IR satellite imagery). For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge is currently centered over California with a trough to the northeast, and embedded in the northwesterly mid-level flow, is a shortwave trough which will traverse the Great Basin through the day today. This shortwave trough should result in breezy conditions, with gusts to 30-35 mph overlapping with 5-10% RH in the afternoon. Fuels in the Great Basin region are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. The Critical region has been maintained in portions of southern Utah where fuels are a bit drier than in the surrounding Elevated area. Additionally, in the southern California coastal range and the Transverse Ranges, dry fuels are in place with low RH expected this afternoon. However, at this time, areas of strong winds are expected to be transient and therefore no Elevated highlights have been included on this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... The Critical area in Utah was expanded slightly westward and eastward based on the latest surface observations, high-resolution guidance, and an ongoing large fire (evident in shortwave IR satellite imagery). For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge is currently centered over California with a trough to the northeast, and embedded in the northwesterly mid-level flow, is a shortwave trough which will traverse the Great Basin through the day today. This shortwave trough should result in breezy conditions, with gusts to 30-35 mph overlapping with 5-10% RH in the afternoon. Fuels in the Great Basin region are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. The Critical region has been maintained in portions of southern Utah where fuels are a bit drier than in the surrounding Elevated area. Additionally, in the southern California coastal range and the Transverse Ranges, dry fuels are in place with low RH expected this afternoon. However, at this time, areas of strong winds are expected to be transient and therefore no Elevated highlights have been included on this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... The Critical area in Utah was expanded slightly westward and eastward based on the latest surface observations, high-resolution guidance, and an ongoing large fire (evident in shortwave IR satellite imagery). For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge is currently centered over California with a trough to the northeast, and embedded in the northwesterly mid-level flow, is a shortwave trough which will traverse the Great Basin through the day today. This shortwave trough should result in breezy conditions, with gusts to 30-35 mph overlapping with 5-10% RH in the afternoon. Fuels in the Great Basin region are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. The Critical region has been maintained in portions of southern Utah where fuels are a bit drier than in the surrounding Elevated area. Additionally, in the southern California coastal range and the Transverse Ranges, dry fuels are in place with low RH expected this afternoon. However, at this time, areas of strong winds are expected to be transient and therefore no Elevated highlights have been included on this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma into northern and northwestern portions of Texas. ...Central and Southern Plains... An extensive cluster of showers and thunderstorms early this morning and related stabilizing effects have pushed southward into central OK. Outflow associated with this early day convection will likely serve as a focus for additional storm development later today. Water-vapor imagery shows broad, cyclonic mid-level flow with a trough moving southeast from the Dakotas/northern High Plains. This mid-level trough will move into the central High Plains late in the period as the northern part of the trough shifts east into the Upper Midwest. Along the periphery of the residual outflow, appreciable destabilization is expected with mid 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints contributing to moderate to strong instability over the southern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon into the evening. Severe gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms as this activity likely grows upscale into one or two linear clusters this evening. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the TX coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. The outer convective bands within the northern and northeast portions of the larger system will overspread the TX coast beginning by late morning and eventually into southwest LA. Coincident with the strengthening lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest LA. Embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts will pose an isolated risk for tornadoes perhaps beginning as early as this afternoon. This tornado risk will likely increase into the evening and tonight as Beryl moves over the shelf waters and approaches the coast tonight. ...IA into northern WI... An ill-defined surface pattern will feature a weak front/surface trough moving east from the eastern Dakotas and the NE Sandhills into the IA/MN vicinity later today. East of this wind shift, a relatively moist airmass will destabilize in proximity to a positively tilted mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will move through the base of the trough over portions of NE eastward into IA. With no expected appreciable moisture advection through peak heating, surface dewpoints will likely remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s north, to the lower to mid 60s south. Model forecast soundings show generally moderate buoyancy (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Despite the diurnal destabilization, the modest large-scale forcing for ascent will likely limit storm coverage/intensity. A localized risk for a strong storm or two may materialize, but uncertainty remains high precluding the introduction of low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma into northern and northwestern portions of Texas. ...Central and Southern Plains... An extensive cluster of showers and thunderstorms early this morning and related stabilizing effects have pushed southward into central OK. Outflow associated with this early day convection will likely serve as a focus for additional storm development later today. Water-vapor imagery shows broad, cyclonic mid-level flow with a trough moving southeast from the Dakotas/northern High Plains. This mid-level trough will move into the central High Plains late in the period as the northern part of the trough shifts east into the Upper Midwest. Along the periphery of the residual outflow, appreciable destabilization is expected with mid 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints contributing to moderate to strong instability over the southern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon into the evening. Severe gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms as this activity likely grows upscale into one or two linear clusters this evening. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the TX coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. The outer convective bands within the northern and northeast portions of the larger system will overspread the TX coast beginning by late morning and eventually into southwest LA. Coincident with the strengthening lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest LA. Embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts will pose an isolated risk for tornadoes perhaps beginning as early as this afternoon. This tornado risk will likely increase into the evening and tonight as Beryl moves over the shelf waters and approaches the coast tonight. ...IA into northern WI... An ill-defined surface pattern will feature a weak front/surface trough moving east from the eastern Dakotas and the NE Sandhills into the IA/MN vicinity later today. East of this wind shift, a relatively moist airmass will destabilize in proximity to a positively tilted mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will move through the base of the trough over portions of NE eastward into IA. With no expected appreciable moisture advection through peak heating, surface dewpoints will likely remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s north, to the lower to mid 60s south. Model forecast soundings show generally moderate buoyancy (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Despite the diurnal destabilization, the modest large-scale forcing for ascent will likely limit storm coverage/intensity. A localized risk for a strong storm or two may materialize, but uncertainty remains high precluding the introduction of low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma into northern and northwestern portions of Texas. ...Central and Southern Plains... An extensive cluster of showers and thunderstorms early this morning and related stabilizing effects have pushed southward into central OK. Outflow associated with this early day convection will likely serve as a focus for additional storm development later today. Water-vapor imagery shows broad, cyclonic mid-level flow with a trough moving southeast from the Dakotas/northern High Plains. This mid-level trough will move into the central High Plains late in the period as the northern part of the trough shifts east into the Upper Midwest. Along the periphery of the residual outflow, appreciable destabilization is expected with mid 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints contributing to moderate to strong instability over the southern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon into the evening. Severe gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms as this activity likely grows upscale into one or two linear clusters this evening. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the TX coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. The outer convective bands within the northern and northeast portions of the larger system will overspread the TX coast beginning by late morning and eventually into southwest LA. Coincident with the strengthening lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest LA. Embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts will pose an isolated risk for tornadoes perhaps beginning as early as this afternoon. This tornado risk will likely increase into the evening and tonight as Beryl moves over the shelf waters and approaches the coast tonight. ...IA into northern WI... An ill-defined surface pattern will feature a weak front/surface trough moving east from the eastern Dakotas and the NE Sandhills into the IA/MN vicinity later today. East of this wind shift, a relatively moist airmass will destabilize in proximity to a positively tilted mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will move through the base of the trough over portions of NE eastward into IA. With no expected appreciable moisture advection through peak heating, surface dewpoints will likely remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s north, to the lower to mid 60s south. Model forecast soundings show generally moderate buoyancy (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Despite the diurnal destabilization, the modest large-scale forcing for ascent will likely limit storm coverage/intensity. A localized risk for a strong storm or two may materialize, but uncertainty remains high precluding the introduction of low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma into northern and northwestern portions of Texas. ...Central and Southern Plains... An extensive cluster of showers and thunderstorms early this morning and related stabilizing effects have pushed southward into central OK. Outflow associated with this early day convection will likely serve as a focus for additional storm development later today. Water-vapor imagery shows broad, cyclonic mid-level flow with a trough moving southeast from the Dakotas/northern High Plains. This mid-level trough will move into the central High Plains late in the period as the northern part of the trough shifts east into the Upper Midwest. Along the periphery of the residual outflow, appreciable destabilization is expected with mid 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints contributing to moderate to strong instability over the southern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon into the evening. Severe gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms as this activity likely grows upscale into one or two linear clusters this evening. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the TX coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. The outer convective bands within the northern and northeast portions of the larger system will overspread the TX coast beginning by late morning and eventually into southwest LA. Coincident with the strengthening lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest LA. Embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts will pose an isolated risk for tornadoes perhaps beginning as early as this afternoon. This tornado risk will likely increase into the evening and tonight as Beryl moves over the shelf waters and approaches the coast tonight. ...IA into northern WI... An ill-defined surface pattern will feature a weak front/surface trough moving east from the eastern Dakotas and the NE Sandhills into the IA/MN vicinity later today. East of this wind shift, a relatively moist airmass will destabilize in proximity to a positively tilted mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will move through the base of the trough over portions of NE eastward into IA. With no expected appreciable moisture advection through peak heating, surface dewpoints will likely remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s north, to the lower to mid 60s south. Model forecast soundings show generally moderate buoyancy (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Despite the diurnal destabilization, the modest large-scale forcing for ascent will likely limit storm coverage/intensity. A localized risk for a strong storm or two may materialize, but uncertainty remains high precluding the introduction of low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/07/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a mid-level trough will de-amplify while shifting northeast into New England through the mid to late-week time-frame, before upper ridging builds over much of the CONUS by next weekend. For Days 4-6 (Wednesday - Friday), stronger mid-level flow may overspread a moist and unstable airmass, potentially supporting the development of isolated strong thunderstorms. However, any coverage of severe appears too sparse to highlight with probabilities this far in advance. While there is disagreement in timing among medium-range guidance members, the ECMWF and GFS have a pronounced mid-level impulse and associated 500 mb wind maxima pivoting around the mid-level ridge across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area sometime around next weekend. Rich low-level moisture beneath a deep-layer of steep lapse rates from an EML plume will foster strong to extreme instability along the periphery of the upper ridge, ahead of the mid-level impulse. It is plausible that one or more severe thunderstorm episodes could unfold if the glancing mid-level impulse can provide enough deep-layer ascent for convective initiation. Of particular concern would be if upscale growth into bow-echo MCSs could occur, as is climatologically favorable for this time of year. However, such events are also notoriously difficult to predict this far in advance, and when considering the disagreement of the placement of synoptic-scale features between medium-range guidance, no severe probabilities have been introduced this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a mid-level trough will de-amplify while shifting northeast into New England through the mid to late-week time-frame, before upper ridging builds over much of the CONUS by next weekend. For Days 4-6 (Wednesday - Friday), stronger mid-level flow may overspread a moist and unstable airmass, potentially supporting the development of isolated strong thunderstorms. However, any coverage of severe appears too sparse to highlight with probabilities this far in advance. While there is disagreement in timing among medium-range guidance members, the ECMWF and GFS have a pronounced mid-level impulse and associated 500 mb wind maxima pivoting around the mid-level ridge across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area sometime around next weekend. Rich low-level moisture beneath a deep-layer of steep lapse rates from an EML plume will foster strong to extreme instability along the periphery of the upper ridge, ahead of the mid-level impulse. It is plausible that one or more severe thunderstorm episodes could unfold if the glancing mid-level impulse can provide enough deep-layer ascent for convective initiation. Of particular concern would be if upscale growth into bow-echo MCSs could occur, as is climatologically favorable for this time of year. However, such events are also notoriously difficult to predict this far in advance, and when considering the disagreement of the placement of synoptic-scale features between medium-range guidance, no severe probabilities have been introduced this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a mid-level trough will de-amplify while shifting northeast into New England through the mid to late-week time-frame, before upper ridging builds over much of the CONUS by next weekend. For Days 4-6 (Wednesday - Friday), stronger mid-level flow may overspread a moist and unstable airmass, potentially supporting the development of isolated strong thunderstorms. However, any coverage of severe appears too sparse to highlight with probabilities this far in advance. While there is disagreement in timing among medium-range guidance members, the ECMWF and GFS have a pronounced mid-level impulse and associated 500 mb wind maxima pivoting around the mid-level ridge across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area sometime around next weekend. Rich low-level moisture beneath a deep-layer of steep lapse rates from an EML plume will foster strong to extreme instability along the periphery of the upper ridge, ahead of the mid-level impulse. It is plausible that one or more severe thunderstorm episodes could unfold if the glancing mid-level impulse can provide enough deep-layer ascent for convective initiation. Of particular concern would be if upscale growth into bow-echo MCSs could occur, as is climatologically favorable for this time of year. However, such events are also notoriously difficult to predict this far in advance, and when considering the disagreement of the placement of synoptic-scale features between medium-range guidance, no severe probabilities have been introduced this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a mid-level trough will de-amplify while shifting northeast into New England through the mid to late-week time-frame, before upper ridging builds over much of the CONUS by next weekend. For Days 4-6 (Wednesday - Friday), stronger mid-level flow may overspread a moist and unstable airmass, potentially supporting the development of isolated strong thunderstorms. However, any coverage of severe appears too sparse to highlight with probabilities this far in advance. While there is disagreement in timing among medium-range guidance members, the ECMWF and GFS have a pronounced mid-level impulse and associated 500 mb wind maxima pivoting around the mid-level ridge across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area sometime around next weekend. Rich low-level moisture beneath a deep-layer of steep lapse rates from an EML plume will foster strong to extreme instability along the periphery of the upper ridge, ahead of the mid-level impulse. It is plausible that one or more severe thunderstorm episodes could unfold if the glancing mid-level impulse can provide enough deep-layer ascent for convective initiation. Of particular concern would be if upscale growth into bow-echo MCSs could occur, as is climatologically favorable for this time of year. However, such events are also notoriously difficult to predict this far in advance, and when considering the disagreement of the placement of synoptic-scale features between medium-range guidance, no severe probabilities have been introduced this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a mid-level trough will de-amplify while shifting northeast into New England through the mid to late-week time-frame, before upper ridging builds over much of the CONUS by next weekend. For Days 4-6 (Wednesday - Friday), stronger mid-level flow may overspread a moist and unstable airmass, potentially supporting the development of isolated strong thunderstorms. However, any coverage of severe appears too sparse to highlight with probabilities this far in advance. While there is disagreement in timing among medium-range guidance members, the ECMWF and GFS have a pronounced mid-level impulse and associated 500 mb wind maxima pivoting around the mid-level ridge across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area sometime around next weekend. Rich low-level moisture beneath a deep-layer of steep lapse rates from an EML plume will foster strong to extreme instability along the periphery of the upper ridge, ahead of the mid-level impulse. It is plausible that one or more severe thunderstorm episodes could unfold if the glancing mid-level impulse can provide enough deep-layer ascent for convective initiation. Of particular concern would be if upscale growth into bow-echo MCSs could occur, as is climatologically favorable for this time of year. However, such events are also notoriously difficult to predict this far in advance, and when considering the disagreement of the placement of synoptic-scale features between medium-range guidance, no severe probabilities have been introduced this outlook. Read more