Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated-scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains, extending into northwest Arkansas. Less concentrated severe is possible across the Midwest into the Tennessee Valley. ...Central/Southern Plains Region... MS Valley trough is forecast to shift into the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region by late afternoon while a dominant upper anticyclone will hold across the southern Rockies. This lead trough will result in a pronounced surface front arcing across the Ozarks-southern KS-northeast CO/NE Panhandle at peak heating. Additionally, there is some indication that a weak short-wave trough may top the southern Rockies ridge and turn southeast along this frontal zone during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests very strong surface heating will lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates across the central High Plains into northern OK. Forecast soundings depict convective temperatures being breached by 22-23z as surface readings rise through the upper 90s/100F. This boundary should serve as the focus for robust convection shortly after peak heating. Additionally, any storms that develop should grow upscale during the evening as the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southeast KS in response to the ridge-topping short wave. Initial storm mode may be high based, but potentially supercellular in nature. However, convection should gradually expand in areal coverage and storm mergers are expected along a favorable corridor of low-level warm advection. As a result, one or more MCSs should evolve which will propagate southeast along the front toward the Ozarks during the overnight hours. Severe gusts and very large hail could be noted across the Plains before MCS maturation. ...Midwest/TN Valley... Scattered robust convection is currently ongoing ahead of the MS Valley trough, notably across IL into southern MO. This activity will propagate downstream ahead of the progressive trough and likely be ongoing at the start of the day1 period, especially across the lower OH Valley along the nose of a veered LLJ. Remnants of this convection should propagate southeast across middle TN as the LLJ weakens. With 500mb flow forecast to strengthen there is some concern this activity could advance further into the northern Gulf States than currently anticipated. Some organization is also possible which may necessitate higher severe probabilities. However, nature/extent of the early-day MCS remains a bit too uncertain to warrant more than MRGL at this time. A narrow corridor of stronger boundary-layer heating is expected across eastern IA/northwest IL into extreme southern WI by mid day. This should aid buoyancy and isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop immediately ahead of the upper low. Hail/wind are possible with storms that evolve along this corridor of stronger instability. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated-scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains, extending into northwest Arkansas. Less concentrated severe is possible across the Midwest into the Tennessee Valley. ...Central/Southern Plains Region... MS Valley trough is forecast to shift into the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region by late afternoon while a dominant upper anticyclone will hold across the southern Rockies. This lead trough will result in a pronounced surface front arcing across the Ozarks-southern KS-northeast CO/NE Panhandle at peak heating. Additionally, there is some indication that a weak short-wave trough may top the southern Rockies ridge and turn southeast along this frontal zone during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests very strong surface heating will lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates across the central High Plains into northern OK. Forecast soundings depict convective temperatures being breached by 22-23z as surface readings rise through the upper 90s/100F. This boundary should serve as the focus for robust convection shortly after peak heating. Additionally, any storms that develop should grow upscale during the evening as the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southeast KS in response to the ridge-topping short wave. Initial storm mode may be high based, but potentially supercellular in nature. However, convection should gradually expand in areal coverage and storm mergers are expected along a favorable corridor of low-level warm advection. As a result, one or more MCSs should evolve which will propagate southeast along the front toward the Ozarks during the overnight hours. Severe gusts and very large hail could be noted across the Plains before MCS maturation. ...Midwest/TN Valley... Scattered robust convection is currently ongoing ahead of the MS Valley trough, notably across IL into southern MO. This activity will propagate downstream ahead of the progressive trough and likely be ongoing at the start of the day1 period, especially across the lower OH Valley along the nose of a veered LLJ. Remnants of this convection should propagate southeast across middle TN as the LLJ weakens. With 500mb flow forecast to strengthen there is some concern this activity could advance further into the northern Gulf States than currently anticipated. Some organization is also possible which may necessitate higher severe probabilities. However, nature/extent of the early-day MCS remains a bit too uncertain to warrant more than MRGL at this time. A narrow corridor of stronger boundary-layer heating is expected across eastern IA/northwest IL into extreme southern WI by mid day. This should aid buoyancy and isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop immediately ahead of the upper low. Hail/wind are possible with storms that evolve along this corridor of stronger instability. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated-scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains, extending into northwest Arkansas. Less concentrated severe is possible across the Midwest into the Tennessee Valley. ...Central/Southern Plains Region... MS Valley trough is forecast to shift into the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region by late afternoon while a dominant upper anticyclone will hold across the southern Rockies. This lead trough will result in a pronounced surface front arcing across the Ozarks-southern KS-northeast CO/NE Panhandle at peak heating. Additionally, there is some indication that a weak short-wave trough may top the southern Rockies ridge and turn southeast along this frontal zone during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests very strong surface heating will lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates across the central High Plains into northern OK. Forecast soundings depict convective temperatures being breached by 22-23z as surface readings rise through the upper 90s/100F. This boundary should serve as the focus for robust convection shortly after peak heating. Additionally, any storms that develop should grow upscale during the evening as the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southeast KS in response to the ridge-topping short wave. Initial storm mode may be high based, but potentially supercellular in nature. However, convection should gradually expand in areal coverage and storm mergers are expected along a favorable corridor of low-level warm advection. As a result, one or more MCSs should evolve which will propagate southeast along the front toward the Ozarks during the overnight hours. Severe gusts and very large hail could be noted across the Plains before MCS maturation. ...Midwest/TN Valley... Scattered robust convection is currently ongoing ahead of the MS Valley trough, notably across IL into southern MO. This activity will propagate downstream ahead of the progressive trough and likely be ongoing at the start of the day1 period, especially across the lower OH Valley along the nose of a veered LLJ. Remnants of this convection should propagate southeast across middle TN as the LLJ weakens. With 500mb flow forecast to strengthen there is some concern this activity could advance further into the northern Gulf States than currently anticipated. Some organization is also possible which may necessitate higher severe probabilities. However, nature/extent of the early-day MCS remains a bit too uncertain to warrant more than MRGL at this time. A narrow corridor of stronger boundary-layer heating is expected across eastern IA/northwest IL into extreme southern WI by mid day. This should aid buoyancy and isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop immediately ahead of the upper low. Hail/wind are possible with storms that evolve along this corridor of stronger instability. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated-scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains, extending into northwest Arkansas. Less concentrated severe is possible across the Midwest into the Tennessee Valley. ...Central/Southern Plains Region... MS Valley trough is forecast to shift into the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region by late afternoon while a dominant upper anticyclone will hold across the southern Rockies. This lead trough will result in a pronounced surface front arcing across the Ozarks-southern KS-northeast CO/NE Panhandle at peak heating. Additionally, there is some indication that a weak short-wave trough may top the southern Rockies ridge and turn southeast along this frontal zone during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests very strong surface heating will lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates across the central High Plains into northern OK. Forecast soundings depict convective temperatures being breached by 22-23z as surface readings rise through the upper 90s/100F. This boundary should serve as the focus for robust convection shortly after peak heating. Additionally, any storms that develop should grow upscale during the evening as the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southeast KS in response to the ridge-topping short wave. Initial storm mode may be high based, but potentially supercellular in nature. However, convection should gradually expand in areal coverage and storm mergers are expected along a favorable corridor of low-level warm advection. As a result, one or more MCSs should evolve which will propagate southeast along the front toward the Ozarks during the overnight hours. Severe gusts and very large hail could be noted across the Plains before MCS maturation. ...Midwest/TN Valley... Scattered robust convection is currently ongoing ahead of the MS Valley trough, notably across IL into southern MO. This activity will propagate downstream ahead of the progressive trough and likely be ongoing at the start of the day1 period, especially across the lower OH Valley along the nose of a veered LLJ. Remnants of this convection should propagate southeast across middle TN as the LLJ weakens. With 500mb flow forecast to strengthen there is some concern this activity could advance further into the northern Gulf States than currently anticipated. Some organization is also possible which may necessitate higher severe probabilities. However, nature/extent of the early-day MCS remains a bit too uncertain to warrant more than MRGL at this time. A narrow corridor of stronger boundary-layer heating is expected across eastern IA/northwest IL into extreme southern WI by mid day. This should aid buoyancy and isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop immediately ahead of the upper low. Hail/wind are possible with storms that evolve along this corridor of stronger instability. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/16/2024 Read more

MD 1916 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 626... FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1916 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...northern Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626... Valid 160434Z - 160600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for gusty/damaging outflow winds continues across portions of northern Illinois. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a bowing cluster of strong/severe storms moving eastward across portions of northern Illinois at around 40 kt. The strongest convection is crossing Stark and Peoria counties at this time, and will affect Marshall and Woodford Counties shortly. The storms are currently moving through the axis of instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per RAP-based objective analysis), and as such, should maintain intensity over the next 1 to 2 hours before eventually encountering a more stable/increasingly capped airmass beginning just west of the Indiana border. Until then, local gusts in excess of 50 kt will remain possible. ..Goss.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 40179131 40838999 41218998 41378849 40338831 39878863 40179131 Read more

MD 1917 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625... FOR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1917 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...northeastern Oklahoma...northwestern Arkansas...and southern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625... Valid 160444Z - 160515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues to gradually diminish across the Ozarks region and into northeastern Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a continued/gradual decreasing trend in terms of the intensity of the ongoing/isolated convection across the remaining portions of the watch. Two clusters of storms - one moving east-southeastward across northeastern Oklahoma and a second over south-central Missouri just north of the Arkansas border -- remain fairly vigorous, and capable of a locally damaging wind gust or two in the short term. With time, a continued/gradual decrease in convective intensity/severe potential is expected, as the boundary layer continues to gradually stabilize. However, ample instability suggests that storms -- and perhaps a sporadic/strong gust -- may continue into the overnight hours locally. Still, with the overall wane in risk, the scheduled 16/05Z expiration of the WW appears appropriate, with new WW issuance not required. ..Goss.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35359624 35939608 36779370 37049317 37719202 37199083 36649092 36119372 35229563 35359624 Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CQB TO 5 NNW CQB TO 30 NNE CQB TO 30 ESE GMJ TO 30 SE SGF TO 15 SSE VIH. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-143-160540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL WASHINGTON MOC043-065-067-091-105-149-153-161-169-203-209-213-215-225-229- 160540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL LACLEDE OREGON OZARK PHELPS PULASKI SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT OKC001-021-037-041-097-107-111-143-145-160540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CQB TO 5 NNW CQB TO 30 NNE CQB TO 30 ESE GMJ TO 30 SE SGF TO 15 SSE VIH. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-143-160540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL WASHINGTON MOC043-065-067-091-105-149-153-161-169-203-209-213-215-225-229- 160540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL LACLEDE OREGON OZARK PHELPS PULASKI SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT OKC001-021-037-041-097-107-111-143-145-160540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CQB TO 5 NNW CQB TO 30 NNE CQB TO 30 ESE GMJ TO 30 SE SGF TO 15 SSE VIH. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-143-160540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL WASHINGTON MOC043-065-067-091-105-149-153-161-169-203-209-213-215-225-229- 160540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL LACLEDE OREGON OZARK PHELPS PULASKI SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT OKC001-021-037-041-097-107-111-143-145-160540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CQB TO 5 NNW CQB TO 30 NNE CQB TO 30 ESE GMJ TO 30 SE SGF TO 15 SSE VIH. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-143-160540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL WASHINGTON MOC043-065-067-091-105-149-153-161-169-203-209-213-215-225-229- 160540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL LACLEDE OREGON OZARK PHELPS PULASKI SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT OKC001-021-037-041-097-107-111-143-145-160540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 625 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 152300Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northwestern Arkansas Southeastern Kansas Southwestern and south-central Missouri Western, central and northeastern Oklahoma * Effective this Thursday night from 600 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered pulse-severe downbursts with embedded damaging gusts and large hail are possible from thunderstorms the next several hours in a well-heated, unstable and very moist environment. A few small clusters also may organize with cold-pool-driven wind potential. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Clinton OK to 30 miles southeast of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623...WW 624... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRL TO 35 NW PIA TO 25 E MLI. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-039-057-067-071-095-099-105-107-109-113-123-125-143-155- 175-179-187-203-160540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU DE WITT FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON KNOX LA SALLE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCLEAN MARSHALL MASON PEORIA PUTNAM STARK TAZEWELL WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRL TO 35 NW PIA TO 25 E MLI. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-039-057-067-071-095-099-105-107-109-113-123-125-143-155- 175-179-187-203-160540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU DE WITT FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON KNOX LA SALLE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCLEAN MARSHALL MASON PEORIA PUTNAM STARK TAZEWELL WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 626 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-039-057-067-071-073-095-099-105-107-109-113-123-125-131- 143-155-175-179-187-203-160440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU DE WITT FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY KNOX LA SALLE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCLEAN MARSHALL MASON MERCER PEORIA PUTNAM STARK TAZEWELL WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CQB TO 5 NE CQB TO 30 WNW TUL TO 20 WSW GMJ TO 20 SE SGF TO 5 ENE VIH. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-143-160440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL WASHINGTON MOC009-043-065-067-091-105-119-149-153-161-169-203-209-213-215- 225-229-160440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL LACLEDE MCDONALD OREGON OZARK PHELPS PULASKI SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT OKC001-021-037-041-081-097-107-111-131-143-145-160440- OK Read more

MD 1914 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1914 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...southern Illinois...and western Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624... Valid 160147Z - 160345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624 continues. SUMMARY...Local severe risk (hail/wind) continues across portions of the southern Illinois area, with additional strong storms approaching from the west. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a continued/gradual decrease in overall convective coverage/intensity across southern Illinois, though one storm has evolved into a small, bowing cluster that has accelerated southward and is now in the process of beginning to cross the Ohio River into far western Kentucky. Locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail will remain possible with this cluster, in the short term. Meanwhile, a separate area of strong/locally severe storms advancing eastward across the Ozarks will begin moving into western portions of WW 624 (out of WW 625) in the next hour. With 2000 to 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE indicated by RAP-based objective analysis across the WW area, expect this convection to remain capable of producing locally strong/damaging wind gusts over the next couple of hours. ..Goss.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 36878782 36638907 36799177 37229219 38199156 38649030 38358947 36878782 Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MVN TO 15 NW MDH TO 15 SSW MDH TO 25 NNE PAH TO 30 NW HOP. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-077-081-087-127-153-181-160340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PULASKI UNION KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-160340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TRIGG MOC017-031-055-093-123-133-157-179-186-187-201-221-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MVN TO 15 NW MDH TO 15 SSW MDH TO 25 NNE PAH TO 30 NW HOP. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-077-081-087-127-153-181-160340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PULASKI UNION KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-160340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TRIGG MOC017-031-055-093-123-133-157-179-186-187-201-221-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MVN TO 15 NW MDH TO 15 SSW MDH TO 25 NNE PAH TO 30 NW HOP. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-077-081-087-127-153-181-160340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PULASKI UNION KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-160340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TRIGG MOC017-031-055-093-123-133-157-179-186-187-201-221-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MVN TO 15 NW MDH TO 15 SSW MDH TO 25 NNE PAH TO 30 NW HOP. ..GOSS..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-077-081-087-127-153-181-160340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PULASKI UNION KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-160340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TRIGG MOC017-031-055-093-123-133-157-179-186-187-201-221-160340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more