Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will translate northeastward from the MS Valley to the OH Valley through the day tomorrow (Tuesday) while a mid-level ridge continues to build over the Interior West. Given rich low-level moisture along and east of the MS River and ahead of the upper trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Intermountain West, driven by mainly orographic lift. A stray wet downburst is possible across any of the aforementioned regimes. However, a relatively greater chance for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms exists with the remnants of Beryl across the OH Valley, as well as with stronger storms embedded in the stronger flow aloft over parts of New England. ...OH Valley... The remnants of Beryl will track northeast from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley while merging with the mid-level trough through the period. At least low to mid 70s F dewpoints should advect northward ahead of the surface cyclone (characterizing Beryl's remnants), helping to boost surface-based instability to a degree. 20+ kts of low-level southerly flow associated with the surface cyclone will be overspread by 30-40 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the mid-level trough, contributing to sizable, curved hodographs. As such, multicells and supercells are possible in the warm sector across portions of the OH Valley, as also depicted by several high-resolution CAM guidance members. While such conditions would be favorable for damaging gusts and multiple brief tornadoes, concerns remain regarding how unstable the warm sector will become. Tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be quite poor (4.5-5.5 C/km), likely limiting MLCAPE to well below 1000 J/kg. Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities have been maintained given buoyancy concerns, though higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if a mesoscale corridor of locally higher buoyancy, coinciding with stronger low-level shear, can be ascertained. Based on guidance trends, such a corridor (if it materializes) would most likely be located somewhere along the OH River. ...Portions of New England... Up to 50 kts of 500 mb westerly flow is expected to overspread much of New England tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. Guidance shows that at least one small perturbation embedded in the stronger flow aloft should traverse New England by afternoon peak heating, encouraging storm development amid 500-1000 J/kg of tall, thin CAPE. The straight, elongated hodographs suggest multicells and brief, transient supercell structures will be the likely storm modes, where a strong wind gust or two, along with some hail, are possible with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will translate northeastward from the MS Valley to the OH Valley through the day tomorrow (Tuesday) while a mid-level ridge continues to build over the Interior West. Given rich low-level moisture along and east of the MS River and ahead of the upper trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Intermountain West, driven by mainly orographic lift. A stray wet downburst is possible across any of the aforementioned regimes. However, a relatively greater chance for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms exists with the remnants of Beryl across the OH Valley, as well as with stronger storms embedded in the stronger flow aloft over parts of New England. ...OH Valley... The remnants of Beryl will track northeast from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley while merging with the mid-level trough through the period. At least low to mid 70s F dewpoints should advect northward ahead of the surface cyclone (characterizing Beryl's remnants), helping to boost surface-based instability to a degree. 20+ kts of low-level southerly flow associated with the surface cyclone will be overspread by 30-40 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the mid-level trough, contributing to sizable, curved hodographs. As such, multicells and supercells are possible in the warm sector across portions of the OH Valley, as also depicted by several high-resolution CAM guidance members. While such conditions would be favorable for damaging gusts and multiple brief tornadoes, concerns remain regarding how unstable the warm sector will become. Tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be quite poor (4.5-5.5 C/km), likely limiting MLCAPE to well below 1000 J/kg. Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities have been maintained given buoyancy concerns, though higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if a mesoscale corridor of locally higher buoyancy, coinciding with stronger low-level shear, can be ascertained. Based on guidance trends, such a corridor (if it materializes) would most likely be located somewhere along the OH River. ...Portions of New England... Up to 50 kts of 500 mb westerly flow is expected to overspread much of New England tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. Guidance shows that at least one small perturbation embedded in the stronger flow aloft should traverse New England by afternoon peak heating, encouraging storm development amid 500-1000 J/kg of tall, thin CAPE. The straight, elongated hodographs suggest multicells and brief, transient supercell structures will be the likely storm modes, where a strong wind gust or two, along with some hail, are possible with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will translate northeastward from the MS Valley to the OH Valley through the day tomorrow (Tuesday) while a mid-level ridge continues to build over the Interior West. Given rich low-level moisture along and east of the MS River and ahead of the upper trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Intermountain West, driven by mainly orographic lift. A stray wet downburst is possible across any of the aforementioned regimes. However, a relatively greater chance for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms exists with the remnants of Beryl across the OH Valley, as well as with stronger storms embedded in the stronger flow aloft over parts of New England. ...OH Valley... The remnants of Beryl will track northeast from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley while merging with the mid-level trough through the period. At least low to mid 70s F dewpoints should advect northward ahead of the surface cyclone (characterizing Beryl's remnants), helping to boost surface-based instability to a degree. 20+ kts of low-level southerly flow associated with the surface cyclone will be overspread by 30-40 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the mid-level trough, contributing to sizable, curved hodographs. As such, multicells and supercells are possible in the warm sector across portions of the OH Valley, as also depicted by several high-resolution CAM guidance members. While such conditions would be favorable for damaging gusts and multiple brief tornadoes, concerns remain regarding how unstable the warm sector will become. Tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be quite poor (4.5-5.5 C/km), likely limiting MLCAPE to well below 1000 J/kg. Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities have been maintained given buoyancy concerns, though higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if a mesoscale corridor of locally higher buoyancy, coinciding with stronger low-level shear, can be ascertained. Based on guidance trends, such a corridor (if it materializes) would most likely be located somewhere along the OH River. ...Portions of New England... Up to 50 kts of 500 mb westerly flow is expected to overspread much of New England tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. Guidance shows that at least one small perturbation embedded in the stronger flow aloft should traverse New England by afternoon peak heating, encouraging storm development amid 500-1000 J/kg of tall, thin CAPE. The straight, elongated hodographs suggest multicells and brief, transient supercell structures will be the likely storm modes, where a strong wind gust or two, along with some hail, are possible with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will translate northeastward from the MS Valley to the OH Valley through the day tomorrow (Tuesday) while a mid-level ridge continues to build over the Interior West. Given rich low-level moisture along and east of the MS River and ahead of the upper trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Intermountain West, driven by mainly orographic lift. A stray wet downburst is possible across any of the aforementioned regimes. However, a relatively greater chance for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms exists with the remnants of Beryl across the OH Valley, as well as with stronger storms embedded in the stronger flow aloft over parts of New England. ...OH Valley... The remnants of Beryl will track northeast from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley while merging with the mid-level trough through the period. At least low to mid 70s F dewpoints should advect northward ahead of the surface cyclone (characterizing Beryl's remnants), helping to boost surface-based instability to a degree. 20+ kts of low-level southerly flow associated with the surface cyclone will be overspread by 30-40 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the mid-level trough, contributing to sizable, curved hodographs. As such, multicells and supercells are possible in the warm sector across portions of the OH Valley, as also depicted by several high-resolution CAM guidance members. While such conditions would be favorable for damaging gusts and multiple brief tornadoes, concerns remain regarding how unstable the warm sector will become. Tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be quite poor (4.5-5.5 C/km), likely limiting MLCAPE to well below 1000 J/kg. Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities have been maintained given buoyancy concerns, though higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if a mesoscale corridor of locally higher buoyancy, coinciding with stronger low-level shear, can be ascertained. Based on guidance trends, such a corridor (if it materializes) would most likely be located somewhere along the OH River. ...Portions of New England... Up to 50 kts of 500 mb westerly flow is expected to overspread much of New England tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. Guidance shows that at least one small perturbation embedded in the stronger flow aloft should traverse New England by afternoon peak heating, encouraging storm development amid 500-1000 J/kg of tall, thin CAPE. The straight, elongated hodographs suggest multicells and brief, transient supercell structures will be the likely storm modes, where a strong wind gust or two, along with some hail, are possible with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will translate northeastward from the MS Valley to the OH Valley through the day tomorrow (Tuesday) while a mid-level ridge continues to build over the Interior West. Given rich low-level moisture along and east of the MS River and ahead of the upper trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Intermountain West, driven by mainly orographic lift. A stray wet downburst is possible across any of the aforementioned regimes. However, a relatively greater chance for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms exists with the remnants of Beryl across the OH Valley, as well as with stronger storms embedded in the stronger flow aloft over parts of New England. ...OH Valley... The remnants of Beryl will track northeast from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley while merging with the mid-level trough through the period. At least low to mid 70s F dewpoints should advect northward ahead of the surface cyclone (characterizing Beryl's remnants), helping to boost surface-based instability to a degree. 20+ kts of low-level southerly flow associated with the surface cyclone will be overspread by 30-40 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the mid-level trough, contributing to sizable, curved hodographs. As such, multicells and supercells are possible in the warm sector across portions of the OH Valley, as also depicted by several high-resolution CAM guidance members. While such conditions would be favorable for damaging gusts and multiple brief tornadoes, concerns remain regarding how unstable the warm sector will become. Tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be quite poor (4.5-5.5 C/km), likely limiting MLCAPE to well below 1000 J/kg. Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities have been maintained given buoyancy concerns, though higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if a mesoscale corridor of locally higher buoyancy, coinciding with stronger low-level shear, can be ascertained. Based on guidance trends, such a corridor (if it materializes) would most likely be located somewhere along the OH River. ...Portions of New England... Up to 50 kts of 500 mb westerly flow is expected to overspread much of New England tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. Guidance shows that at least one small perturbation embedded in the stronger flow aloft should traverse New England by afternoon peak heating, encouraging storm development amid 500-1000 J/kg of tall, thin CAPE. The straight, elongated hodographs suggest multicells and brief, transient supercell structures will be the likely storm modes, where a strong wind gust or two, along with some hail, are possible with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will translate northeastward from the MS Valley to the OH Valley through the day tomorrow (Tuesday) while a mid-level ridge continues to build over the Interior West. Given rich low-level moisture along and east of the MS River and ahead of the upper trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Intermountain West, driven by mainly orographic lift. A stray wet downburst is possible across any of the aforementioned regimes. However, a relatively greater chance for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms exists with the remnants of Beryl across the OH Valley, as well as with stronger storms embedded in the stronger flow aloft over parts of New England. ...OH Valley... The remnants of Beryl will track northeast from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley while merging with the mid-level trough through the period. At least low to mid 70s F dewpoints should advect northward ahead of the surface cyclone (characterizing Beryl's remnants), helping to boost surface-based instability to a degree. 20+ kts of low-level southerly flow associated with the surface cyclone will be overspread by 30-40 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the mid-level trough, contributing to sizable, curved hodographs. As such, multicells and supercells are possible in the warm sector across portions of the OH Valley, as also depicted by several high-resolution CAM guidance members. While such conditions would be favorable for damaging gusts and multiple brief tornadoes, concerns remain regarding how unstable the warm sector will become. Tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be quite poor (4.5-5.5 C/km), likely limiting MLCAPE to well below 1000 J/kg. Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities have been maintained given buoyancy concerns, though higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if a mesoscale corridor of locally higher buoyancy, coinciding with stronger low-level shear, can be ascertained. Based on guidance trends, such a corridor (if it materializes) would most likely be located somewhere along the OH River. ...Portions of New England... Up to 50 kts of 500 mb westerly flow is expected to overspread much of New England tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. Guidance shows that at least one small perturbation embedded in the stronger flow aloft should traverse New England by afternoon peak heating, encouraging storm development amid 500-1000 J/kg of tall, thin CAPE. The straight, elongated hodographs suggest multicells and brief, transient supercell structures will be the likely storm modes, where a strong wind gust or two, along with some hail, are possible with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will translate northeastward from the MS Valley to the OH Valley through the day tomorrow (Tuesday) while a mid-level ridge continues to build over the Interior West. Given rich low-level moisture along and east of the MS River and ahead of the upper trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Intermountain West, driven by mainly orographic lift. A stray wet downburst is possible across any of the aforementioned regimes. However, a relatively greater chance for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms exists with the remnants of Beryl across the OH Valley, as well as with stronger storms embedded in the stronger flow aloft over parts of New England. ...OH Valley... The remnants of Beryl will track northeast from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley while merging with the mid-level trough through the period. At least low to mid 70s F dewpoints should advect northward ahead of the surface cyclone (characterizing Beryl's remnants), helping to boost surface-based instability to a degree. 20+ kts of low-level southerly flow associated with the surface cyclone will be overspread by 30-40 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the mid-level trough, contributing to sizable, curved hodographs. As such, multicells and supercells are possible in the warm sector across portions of the OH Valley, as also depicted by several high-resolution CAM guidance members. While such conditions would be favorable for damaging gusts and multiple brief tornadoes, concerns remain regarding how unstable the warm sector will become. Tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be quite poor (4.5-5.5 C/km), likely limiting MLCAPE to well below 1000 J/kg. Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities have been maintained given buoyancy concerns, though higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if a mesoscale corridor of locally higher buoyancy, coinciding with stronger low-level shear, can be ascertained. Based on guidance trends, such a corridor (if it materializes) would most likely be located somewhere along the OH River. ...Portions of New England... Up to 50 kts of 500 mb westerly flow is expected to overspread much of New England tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. Guidance shows that at least one small perturbation embedded in the stronger flow aloft should traverse New England by afternoon peak heating, encouraging storm development amid 500-1000 J/kg of tall, thin CAPE. The straight, elongated hodographs suggest multicells and brief, transient supercell structures will be the likely storm modes, where a strong wind gust or two, along with some hail, are possible with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will translate northeastward from the MS Valley to the OH Valley through the day tomorrow (Tuesday) while a mid-level ridge continues to build over the Interior West. Given rich low-level moisture along and east of the MS River and ahead of the upper trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Intermountain West, driven by mainly orographic lift. A stray wet downburst is possible across any of the aforementioned regimes. However, a relatively greater chance for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms exists with the remnants of Beryl across the OH Valley, as well as with stronger storms embedded in the stronger flow aloft over parts of New England. ...OH Valley... The remnants of Beryl will track northeast from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley while merging with the mid-level trough through the period. At least low to mid 70s F dewpoints should advect northward ahead of the surface cyclone (characterizing Beryl's remnants), helping to boost surface-based instability to a degree. 20+ kts of low-level southerly flow associated with the surface cyclone will be overspread by 30-40 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the mid-level trough, contributing to sizable, curved hodographs. As such, multicells and supercells are possible in the warm sector across portions of the OH Valley, as also depicted by several high-resolution CAM guidance members. While such conditions would be favorable for damaging gusts and multiple brief tornadoes, concerns remain regarding how unstable the warm sector will become. Tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be quite poor (4.5-5.5 C/km), likely limiting MLCAPE to well below 1000 J/kg. Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities have been maintained given buoyancy concerns, though higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if a mesoscale corridor of locally higher buoyancy, coinciding with stronger low-level shear, can be ascertained. Based on guidance trends, such a corridor (if it materializes) would most likely be located somewhere along the OH River. ...Portions of New England... Up to 50 kts of 500 mb westerly flow is expected to overspread much of New England tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. Guidance shows that at least one small perturbation embedded in the stronger flow aloft should traverse New England by afternoon peak heating, encouraging storm development amid 500-1000 J/kg of tall, thin CAPE. The straight, elongated hodographs suggest multicells and brief, transient supercell structures will be the likely storm modes, where a strong wind gust or two, along with some hail, are possible with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will translate northeastward from the MS Valley to the OH Valley through the day tomorrow (Tuesday) while a mid-level ridge continues to build over the Interior West. Given rich low-level moisture along and east of the MS River and ahead of the upper trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Intermountain West, driven by mainly orographic lift. A stray wet downburst is possible across any of the aforementioned regimes. However, a relatively greater chance for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms exists with the remnants of Beryl across the OH Valley, as well as with stronger storms embedded in the stronger flow aloft over parts of New England. ...OH Valley... The remnants of Beryl will track northeast from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley while merging with the mid-level trough through the period. At least low to mid 70s F dewpoints should advect northward ahead of the surface cyclone (characterizing Beryl's remnants), helping to boost surface-based instability to a degree. 20+ kts of low-level southerly flow associated with the surface cyclone will be overspread by 30-40 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the mid-level trough, contributing to sizable, curved hodographs. As such, multicells and supercells are possible in the warm sector across portions of the OH Valley, as also depicted by several high-resolution CAM guidance members. While such conditions would be favorable for damaging gusts and multiple brief tornadoes, concerns remain regarding how unstable the warm sector will become. Tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be quite poor (4.5-5.5 C/km), likely limiting MLCAPE to well below 1000 J/kg. Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities have been maintained given buoyancy concerns, though higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if a mesoscale corridor of locally higher buoyancy, coinciding with stronger low-level shear, can be ascertained. Based on guidance trends, such a corridor (if it materializes) would most likely be located somewhere along the OH River. ...Portions of New England... Up to 50 kts of 500 mb westerly flow is expected to overspread much of New England tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. Guidance shows that at least one small perturbation embedded in the stronger flow aloft should traverse New England by afternoon peak heating, encouraging storm development amid 500-1000 J/kg of tall, thin CAPE. The straight, elongated hodographs suggest multicells and brief, transient supercell structures will be the likely storm modes, where a strong wind gust or two, along with some hail, are possible with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from far east Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will also be possible in Far West Texas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to move inland across the middle to upper Texas Coast this morning. Rainbands in associated with Beryl will overspread much of east Texas and western Louisiana during the day as the cyclone moves northward across east Texas. The northeast quadrant of Beryl is forecast to move into a moderately unstable airmass across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Shreveport, Louisiana from 21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range, and have large looping hodographs. In addition, the HRRR solution suggests that semi-discrete cells will develop within the eastern most rainband of Beryl. This, combined with the strong low-level shear, should be favorable for rotating storms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat is expected to coincide with the strongest instability, which should peak during the 17Z and 01Z temporal window. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as the remnants of Beryl moves into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Far West Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass, MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km lapse rates into the 8 to 8.5 C/km range by late afternoon. This, combined with about 30 knots of deep-layer shear, should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from far east Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will also be possible in Far West Texas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to move inland across the middle to upper Texas Coast this morning. Rainbands in associated with Beryl will overspread much of east Texas and western Louisiana during the day as the cyclone moves northward across east Texas. The northeast quadrant of Beryl is forecast to move into a moderately unstable airmass across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Shreveport, Louisiana from 21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range, and have large looping hodographs. In addition, the HRRR solution suggests that semi-discrete cells will develop within the eastern most rainband of Beryl. This, combined with the strong low-level shear, should be favorable for rotating storms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat is expected to coincide with the strongest instability, which should peak during the 17Z and 01Z temporal window. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as the remnants of Beryl moves into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Far West Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass, MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km lapse rates into the 8 to 8.5 C/km range by late afternoon. This, combined with about 30 knots of deep-layer shear, should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from far east Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will also be possible in Far West Texas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to move inland across the middle to upper Texas Coast this morning. Rainbands in associated with Beryl will overspread much of east Texas and western Louisiana during the day as the cyclone moves northward across east Texas. The northeast quadrant of Beryl is forecast to move into a moderately unstable airmass across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Shreveport, Louisiana from 21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range, and have large looping hodographs. In addition, the HRRR solution suggests that semi-discrete cells will develop within the eastern most rainband of Beryl. This, combined with the strong low-level shear, should be favorable for rotating storms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat is expected to coincide with the strongest instability, which should peak during the 17Z and 01Z temporal window. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as the remnants of Beryl moves into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Far West Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass, MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km lapse rates into the 8 to 8.5 C/km range by late afternoon. This, combined with about 30 knots of deep-layer shear, should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from far east Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will also be possible in Far West Texas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to move inland across the middle to upper Texas Coast this morning. Rainbands in associated with Beryl will overspread much of east Texas and western Louisiana during the day as the cyclone moves northward across east Texas. The northeast quadrant of Beryl is forecast to move into a moderately unstable airmass across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Shreveport, Louisiana from 21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range, and have large looping hodographs. In addition, the HRRR solution suggests that semi-discrete cells will develop within the eastern most rainband of Beryl. This, combined with the strong low-level shear, should be favorable for rotating storms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat is expected to coincide with the strongest instability, which should peak during the 17Z and 01Z temporal window. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as the remnants of Beryl moves into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Far West Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass, MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km lapse rates into the 8 to 8.5 C/km range by late afternoon. This, combined with about 30 knots of deep-layer shear, should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/08/2024 Read more