Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains from early to mid week, as an upper-level trough moves slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Surface high pressure, associated with the trough is forecast to move from the middle to upper Mississippi Valley on Monday to the middle and upper Atlantic Seaboard by Wednesday. Due to this high, the airmass across much of the eastern third of the U.S. will likely become drier and less unstable from Monday to Wednesday, making conditions less favorable for severe storms. Further to the west, a south-to-north corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop each day, remaining in a similar position across the central and northern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening to the east of the ridge near the axis of instability. It appears that deep-layer shear will be relatively weak near instability axis, which will favor less storm organization. Still, a marginal severe threat will be possible due to the strong instability. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper-level ridge in the north-central U.S. is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains on Thursday into the western Great Lakes region by Friday. An axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to remain over the central and northern Plains. Thunderstorms that form each afternoon close the instability axis will have a chance be severe. Although there is a lot of uncertainty this far out in the forecast cycle, the subsidence and weaker deep-layer shear associated with the upper-level ridge, should negatively impact severe potential. However, instability could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat, mainly during the afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains from early to mid week, as an upper-level trough moves slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Surface high pressure, associated with the trough is forecast to move from the middle to upper Mississippi Valley on Monday to the middle and upper Atlantic Seaboard by Wednesday. Due to this high, the airmass across much of the eastern third of the U.S. will likely become drier and less unstable from Monday to Wednesday, making conditions less favorable for severe storms. Further to the west, a south-to-north corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop each day, remaining in a similar position across the central and northern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening to the east of the ridge near the axis of instability. It appears that deep-layer shear will be relatively weak near instability axis, which will favor less storm organization. Still, a marginal severe threat will be possible due to the strong instability. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper-level ridge in the north-central U.S. is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains on Thursday into the western Great Lakes region by Friday. An axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to remain over the central and northern Plains. Thunderstorms that form each afternoon close the instability axis will have a chance be severe. Although there is a lot of uncertainty this far out in the forecast cycle, the subsidence and weaker deep-layer shear associated with the upper-level ridge, should negatively impact severe potential. However, instability could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat, mainly during the afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains from early to mid week, as an upper-level trough moves slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Surface high pressure, associated with the trough is forecast to move from the middle to upper Mississippi Valley on Monday to the middle and upper Atlantic Seaboard by Wednesday. Due to this high, the airmass across much of the eastern third of the U.S. will likely become drier and less unstable from Monday to Wednesday, making conditions less favorable for severe storms. Further to the west, a south-to-north corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop each day, remaining in a similar position across the central and northern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening to the east of the ridge near the axis of instability. It appears that deep-layer shear will be relatively weak near instability axis, which will favor less storm organization. Still, a marginal severe threat will be possible due to the strong instability. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper-level ridge in the north-central U.S. is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains on Thursday into the western Great Lakes region by Friday. An axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to remain over the central and northern Plains. Thunderstorms that form each afternoon close the instability axis will have a chance be severe. Although there is a lot of uncertainty this far out in the forecast cycle, the subsidence and weaker deep-layer shear associated with the upper-level ridge, should negatively impact severe potential. However, instability could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat, mainly during the afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday. Read more

MD 1918 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 626... FOR CENTRAL IL...FAR NORTHWEST IN...EXTREME NORTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1918 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...Central IL...Far Northwest IN...Extreme Northeast MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626... Valid 160619Z - 160815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts continues from far northeast Missouri across central Illinois into far northwest Indiana. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage within the convective cluster ongoing across central IL has expanded southwestward along the outflow into more of west-central IL and far northeast MO over the past hour. The airmass downstream of this new development is moist and buoyant, as evidenced by the more discrete storms currently developing ahead of the line over central IL. As such, the general expectation is for this newer development to persist, and perhaps even strengthen, as it continues eastward over the next few hours. Primary risk would be damaging gusts with any bowing line segments. Farther north, the portion of the line moving across northeast IL continues to move eastward at about 40 kt. Buoyancy decreases notably from northeast IL into northern IN, and the general expectation is for this portion of the line to gradually weaken. Even so, localized damaging gusts will remain possible, particularly over the next hour or so. ..Mosier.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 40419131 41488875 41498746 40998712 40298713 39378813 39159039 39589214 40419131 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Sunday from the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas west-southwestward into much of the Southeast. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the Atlantic Coastal Plains, and southeastward into the southeastern states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability across a broad area by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near the boundary. Some convection may also develop southeastward into the moist airmass. Although the upper-level trough will likely provide some support for convective development, the area ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic southeastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states is forecast to have marginal deep-layer shear for severe storms. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible near and after peak heating, mainly as low-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. Further west into the lower Mississippi Valley, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Mid-level flow behind the trough will be northwesterly. This will result in stronger deep-layer shear, which should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The main uncertainty on Sunday in the lower Mississippi Valley is how instability will be distributed by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a cluster of storms will develop early in the day, which could negatively impact instability across parts of the region. Areas that can avoid this negative impact could have potential for severe wind gusts and hail during the afternoon. ...Central and Northern High Plains. An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a somewhat moist airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s and 60s F. As surface temperature warm on Sunday, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible across much of the central High Plains. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon from eastern Colorado northward into western South Dakota have steep low-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible. However, subsidence associated with the ridge will negatively impact convective development, and any severe threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Sunday from the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas west-southwestward into much of the Southeast. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the Atlantic Coastal Plains, and southeastward into the southeastern states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability across a broad area by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near the boundary. Some convection may also develop southeastward into the moist airmass. Although the upper-level trough will likely provide some support for convective development, the area ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic southeastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states is forecast to have marginal deep-layer shear for severe storms. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible near and after peak heating, mainly as low-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. Further west into the lower Mississippi Valley, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Mid-level flow behind the trough will be northwesterly. This will result in stronger deep-layer shear, which should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The main uncertainty on Sunday in the lower Mississippi Valley is how instability will be distributed by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a cluster of storms will develop early in the day, which could negatively impact instability across parts of the region. Areas that can avoid this negative impact could have potential for severe wind gusts and hail during the afternoon. ...Central and Northern High Plains. An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a somewhat moist airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s and 60s F. As surface temperature warm on Sunday, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible across much of the central High Plains. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon from eastern Colorado northward into western South Dakota have steep low-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible. However, subsidence associated with the ridge will negatively impact convective development, and any severe threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Sunday from the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas west-southwestward into much of the Southeast. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the Atlantic Coastal Plains, and southeastward into the southeastern states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability across a broad area by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near the boundary. Some convection may also develop southeastward into the moist airmass. Although the upper-level trough will likely provide some support for convective development, the area ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic southeastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states is forecast to have marginal deep-layer shear for severe storms. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible near and after peak heating, mainly as low-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. Further west into the lower Mississippi Valley, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Mid-level flow behind the trough will be northwesterly. This will result in stronger deep-layer shear, which should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The main uncertainty on Sunday in the lower Mississippi Valley is how instability will be distributed by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a cluster of storms will develop early in the day, which could negatively impact instability across parts of the region. Areas that can avoid this negative impact could have potential for severe wind gusts and hail during the afternoon. ...Central and Northern High Plains. An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a somewhat moist airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s and 60s F. As surface temperature warm on Sunday, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible across much of the central High Plains. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon from eastern Colorado northward into western South Dakota have steep low-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible. However, subsidence associated with the ridge will negatively impact convective development, and any severe threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Sunday from the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas west-southwestward into much of the Southeast. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the Atlantic Coastal Plains, and southeastward into the southeastern states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability across a broad area by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near the boundary. Some convection may also develop southeastward into the moist airmass. Although the upper-level trough will likely provide some support for convective development, the area ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic southeastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states is forecast to have marginal deep-layer shear for severe storms. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible near and after peak heating, mainly as low-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. Further west into the lower Mississippi Valley, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Mid-level flow behind the trough will be northwesterly. This will result in stronger deep-layer shear, which should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The main uncertainty on Sunday in the lower Mississippi Valley is how instability will be distributed by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a cluster of storms will develop early in the day, which could negatively impact instability across parts of the region. Areas that can avoid this negative impact could have potential for severe wind gusts and hail during the afternoon. ...Central and Northern High Plains. An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a somewhat moist airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s and 60s F. As surface temperature warm on Sunday, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible across much of the central High Plains. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon from eastern Colorado northward into western South Dakota have steep low-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible. However, subsidence associated with the ridge will negatively impact convective development, and any severe threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Sunday from the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas west-southwestward into much of the Southeast. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the Atlantic Coastal Plains, and southeastward into the southeastern states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability across a broad area by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near the boundary. Some convection may also develop southeastward into the moist airmass. Although the upper-level trough will likely provide some support for convective development, the area ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic southeastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states is forecast to have marginal deep-layer shear for severe storms. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible near and after peak heating, mainly as low-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. Further west into the lower Mississippi Valley, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Mid-level flow behind the trough will be northwesterly. This will result in stronger deep-layer shear, which should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The main uncertainty on Sunday in the lower Mississippi Valley is how instability will be distributed by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a cluster of storms will develop early in the day, which could negatively impact instability across parts of the region. Areas that can avoid this negative impact could have potential for severe wind gusts and hail during the afternoon. ...Central and Northern High Plains. An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a somewhat moist airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s and 60s F. As surface temperature warm on Sunday, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible across much of the central High Plains. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon from eastern Colorado northward into western South Dakota have steep low-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible. However, subsidence associated with the ridge will negatively impact convective development, and any severe threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Sunday from the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas west-southwestward into much of the Southeast. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the Atlantic Coastal Plains, and southeastward into the southeastern states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability across a broad area by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near the boundary. Some convection may also develop southeastward into the moist airmass. Although the upper-level trough will likely provide some support for convective development, the area ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic southeastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states is forecast to have marginal deep-layer shear for severe storms. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible near and after peak heating, mainly as low-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. Further west into the lower Mississippi Valley, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Mid-level flow behind the trough will be northwesterly. This will result in stronger deep-layer shear, which should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The main uncertainty on Sunday in the lower Mississippi Valley is how instability will be distributed by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a cluster of storms will develop early in the day, which could negatively impact instability across parts of the region. Areas that can avoid this negative impact could have potential for severe wind gusts and hail during the afternoon. ...Central and Northern High Plains. An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a somewhat moist airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s and 60s F. As surface temperature warm on Sunday, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible across much of the central High Plains. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon from eastern Colorado northward into western South Dakota have steep low-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible. However, subsidence associated with the ridge will negatively impact convective development, and any severe threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Sunday from the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas west-southwestward into much of the Southeast. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the Atlantic Coastal Plains, and southeastward into the southeastern states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability across a broad area by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near the boundary. Some convection may also develop southeastward into the moist airmass. Although the upper-level trough will likely provide some support for convective development, the area ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic southeastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states is forecast to have marginal deep-layer shear for severe storms. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible near and after peak heating, mainly as low-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. Further west into the lower Mississippi Valley, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Mid-level flow behind the trough will be northwesterly. This will result in stronger deep-layer shear, which should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The main uncertainty on Sunday in the lower Mississippi Valley is how instability will be distributed by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a cluster of storms will develop early in the day, which could negatively impact instability across parts of the region. Areas that can avoid this negative impact could have potential for severe wind gusts and hail during the afternoon. ...Central and Northern High Plains. An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a somewhat moist airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s and 60s F. As surface temperature warm on Sunday, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible across much of the central High Plains. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon from eastern Colorado northward into western South Dakota have steep low-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible. However, subsidence associated with the ridge will negatively impact convective development, and any severe threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SPI TO 40 NE BMI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918 ..MOSIER..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC039-107-113-125-160840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DE WITT LOGAN MCLEAN MASON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SPI TO 40 NE BMI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918 ..MOSIER..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC039-107-113-125-160840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DE WITT LOGAN MCLEAN MASON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 626 SEVERE TSTM IL 160210Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 626 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 910 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-central and northwestern Illinois * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 910 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms may organize to severe levels as they move eastward over the Mississippi River from IA, and into a favorably moist and unstable air mass. Damaging gusts are the main concern, with isolated large hail also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south of Peoria IL to 55 miles north of Peoria IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623...WW 624...WW 625... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Edwards Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more