Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more