Severe Storms

MD 1919 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1919 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...parts of central/southern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161536Z - 161730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...It remains unclear how much longer ongoing scattered severe hail producing storms will persist. But trends are being monitored, and it is possible that a severe weather watch may become necessary. DISCUSSION...Elevated moisture return within forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection has been sufficently to overcome mid-level inhibition and support the initiation of scattered vigorous thunderstorm development. CAPE for lifted parcels, in the presence of steep lapse rates, may be in excess of 2000 J/kg. More certain, shear beneath 30-40+ west-northwesterly mid/upper flow is strong and more than sufficient for supercells capable of producing severe hail. Based on model output, it remains unclear how much longer this will continue. However, through early afternoon, the forcing for ascent is forecast to generally continue spreading east-southeastward through south central Kansas near/north of Medicine Lodge and Wichita, where a warmer and more moist boundary-layer may destabilize sufficiently to support notable further intensification. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38609999 38679887 38549776 37929693 37279783 37739997 38609999 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0627 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0627 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 16 15:39:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for much of Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern Plains Region... A surface front will become draped from the Ozarks westward into KS and arcing into the north-central High Plains by mid afternoon. With this region largely in between a mid-level anticyclone over NM and an upper low over the Upper Midwest, a subtle impulse in water-vapor imagery over the central High Plains is forecast to gradually move east across KS today. Models show an instability axis paralleling the frontal zone where the combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy will be greatest. It is within the Slight Risk where the potential for organized storms, including supercells and eventually severe clusters/line segments appear to be most probable. However, given the relatively modest forcing, it is not entirely clear how storm clusters evolve except for the peak storm intensity/coverage to generally focus late this afternoon into the evening. This activity will likely continue to move east-southeast into richer moisture in the northeast OK vicinity and yield a risk for severe gusts potentially into tonight. Farther southwest into western OK and adjacent parts of TX, a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer will feature very steep 0-3 km lapse rates by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are indicated in model guidance. Severe gusts associated with evaporatively cooled downdrafts appear to be the primary hazard before this activity weakens by mid evening. ...KY/TN Valley/Mid South... Scattered showers/thunderstorm ongoing this morning across parts of TN/KY will continue east through the morning. Heating ahead of this activity will act to destabilize a moist airmass with additional development forecast on trailing outflow. Isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts are possible with the more intense storms once the boundary layer sufficiently destabilizes. Some recent model guidance indicates a focused mesoscale corridor for wind potential may evolve across the TN Valley but uncertainty is relatively high for this scenario. ...Southern Great Lakes vicinity... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a leading mid-level vorticity maximum moving east across northern IN/southern Lower MI. Weak instability immediately downstream of this impulse (250 J/kg MUCAPE per the Detroit 12 UTC raob) and an associated cloud shield will likely limited storm intensity until stronger heating can occur. Upstream of the aforementioned disturbance, another mid-level shortwave is forecast to rotate east-southeastward from MN towards Lake Michigan through the early evening. Heating ahead of this impulse will yield at least weak to moderate buoyancy by early afternoon. Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop immediately ahead of the upper low. Hail/wind are possible with storms that evolve along this corridor of stronger instability. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for much of Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern Plains Region... A surface front will become draped from the Ozarks westward into KS and arcing into the north-central High Plains by mid afternoon. With this region largely in between a mid-level anticyclone over NM and an upper low over the Upper Midwest, a subtle impulse in water-vapor imagery over the central High Plains is forecast to gradually move east across KS today. Models show an instability axis paralleling the frontal zone where the combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy will be greatest. It is within the Slight Risk where the potential for organized storms, including supercells and eventually severe clusters/line segments appear to be most probable. However, given the relatively modest forcing, it is not entirely clear how storm clusters evolve except for the peak storm intensity/coverage to generally focus late this afternoon into the evening. This activity will likely continue to move east-southeast into richer moisture in the northeast OK vicinity and yield a risk for severe gusts potentially into tonight. Farther southwest into western OK and adjacent parts of TX, a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer will feature very steep 0-3 km lapse rates by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are indicated in model guidance. Severe gusts associated with evaporatively cooled downdrafts appear to be the primary hazard before this activity weakens by mid evening. ...KY/TN Valley/Mid South... Scattered showers/thunderstorm ongoing this morning across parts of TN/KY will continue east through the morning. Heating ahead of this activity will act to destabilize a moist airmass with additional development forecast on trailing outflow. Isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts are possible with the more intense storms once the boundary layer sufficiently destabilizes. Some recent model guidance indicates a focused mesoscale corridor for wind potential may evolve across the TN Valley but uncertainty is relatively high for this scenario. ...Southern Great Lakes vicinity... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a leading mid-level vorticity maximum moving east across northern IN/southern Lower MI. Weak instability immediately downstream of this impulse (250 J/kg MUCAPE per the Detroit 12 UTC raob) and an associated cloud shield will likely limited storm intensity until stronger heating can occur. Upstream of the aforementioned disturbance, another mid-level shortwave is forecast to rotate east-southeastward from MN towards Lake Michigan through the early evening. Heating ahead of this impulse will yield at least weak to moderate buoyancy by early afternoon. Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop immediately ahead of the upper low. Hail/wind are possible with storms that evolve along this corridor of stronger instability. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for much of Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern Plains Region... A surface front will become draped from the Ozarks westward into KS and arcing into the north-central High Plains by mid afternoon. With this region largely in between a mid-level anticyclone over NM and an upper low over the Upper Midwest, a subtle impulse in water-vapor imagery over the central High Plains is forecast to gradually move east across KS today. Models show an instability axis paralleling the frontal zone where the combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy will be greatest. It is within the Slight Risk where the potential for organized storms, including supercells and eventually severe clusters/line segments appear to be most probable. However, given the relatively modest forcing, it is not entirely clear how storm clusters evolve except for the peak storm intensity/coverage to generally focus late this afternoon into the evening. This activity will likely continue to move east-southeast into richer moisture in the northeast OK vicinity and yield a risk for severe gusts potentially into tonight. Farther southwest into western OK and adjacent parts of TX, a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer will feature very steep 0-3 km lapse rates by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are indicated in model guidance. Severe gusts associated with evaporatively cooled downdrafts appear to be the primary hazard before this activity weakens by mid evening. ...KY/TN Valley/Mid South... Scattered showers/thunderstorm ongoing this morning across parts of TN/KY will continue east through the morning. Heating ahead of this activity will act to destabilize a moist airmass with additional development forecast on trailing outflow. Isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts are possible with the more intense storms once the boundary layer sufficiently destabilizes. Some recent model guidance indicates a focused mesoscale corridor for wind potential may evolve across the TN Valley but uncertainty is relatively high for this scenario. ...Southern Great Lakes vicinity... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a leading mid-level vorticity maximum moving east across northern IN/southern Lower MI. Weak instability immediately downstream of this impulse (250 J/kg MUCAPE per the Detroit 12 UTC raob) and an associated cloud shield will likely limited storm intensity until stronger heating can occur. Upstream of the aforementioned disturbance, another mid-level shortwave is forecast to rotate east-southeastward from MN towards Lake Michigan through the early evening. Heating ahead of this impulse will yield at least weak to moderate buoyancy by early afternoon. Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop immediately ahead of the upper low. Hail/wind are possible with storms that evolve along this corridor of stronger instability. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for much of Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern Plains Region... A surface front will become draped from the Ozarks westward into KS and arcing into the north-central High Plains by mid afternoon. With this region largely in between a mid-level anticyclone over NM and an upper low over the Upper Midwest, a subtle impulse in water-vapor imagery over the central High Plains is forecast to gradually move east across KS today. Models show an instability axis paralleling the frontal zone where the combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy will be greatest. It is within the Slight Risk where the potential for organized storms, including supercells and eventually severe clusters/line segments appear to be most probable. However, given the relatively modest forcing, it is not entirely clear how storm clusters evolve except for the peak storm intensity/coverage to generally focus late this afternoon into the evening. This activity will likely continue to move east-southeast into richer moisture in the northeast OK vicinity and yield a risk for severe gusts potentially into tonight. Farther southwest into western OK and adjacent parts of TX, a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer will feature very steep 0-3 km lapse rates by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are indicated in model guidance. Severe gusts associated with evaporatively cooled downdrafts appear to be the primary hazard before this activity weakens by mid evening. ...KY/TN Valley/Mid South... Scattered showers/thunderstorm ongoing this morning across parts of TN/KY will continue east through the morning. Heating ahead of this activity will act to destabilize a moist airmass with additional development forecast on trailing outflow. Isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts are possible with the more intense storms once the boundary layer sufficiently destabilizes. Some recent model guidance indicates a focused mesoscale corridor for wind potential may evolve across the TN Valley but uncertainty is relatively high for this scenario. ...Southern Great Lakes vicinity... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a leading mid-level vorticity maximum moving east across northern IN/southern Lower MI. Weak instability immediately downstream of this impulse (250 J/kg MUCAPE per the Detroit 12 UTC raob) and an associated cloud shield will likely limited storm intensity until stronger heating can occur. Upstream of the aforementioned disturbance, another mid-level shortwave is forecast to rotate east-southeastward from MN towards Lake Michigan through the early evening. Heating ahead of this impulse will yield at least weak to moderate buoyancy by early afternoon. Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop immediately ahead of the upper low. Hail/wind are possible with storms that evolve along this corridor of stronger instability. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/16/2024 Read more