Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New York on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs. Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be, potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New York on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs. Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be, potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New York on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs. Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be, potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New York on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs. Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be, potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New York on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs. Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be, potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New York on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs. Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be, potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New York on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs. Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be, potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New York on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs. Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be, potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New York on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs. Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be, potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New York on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs. Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be, potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024 Read more