Severe Storms

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0512 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 512 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 072220Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 512 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 520 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a boundary from west Texas into central Oklahoma. These storms will track southeastward through the afternoon and evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles east southeast of Chickasha OK to 45 miles west southwest of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1551 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle/South Plains into southwestern/central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072034Z - 072230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few storms are possible from the Texas South Plains into central Oklahoma. Discrete storms would pose a risk for large hail, though severe winds will likely be the predominant threat. Potential for upscale growth into a cluster/linear segment is possible. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Weak warm advection over the cold pool from this mornings convection has contributed to the development of elevated storms in parts of western and central Oklahoma. The outflow itself has modified and MLCAPE has risen to around 2000 J/kg. With additional heating and the approach of the cold front, at least isolated development is possible within the next few hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-35 kts of effective shear will promote supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Farther west, cumulus have been deepening in the Texas South Plains within a weak surface trough. A few additional storms are possible in this region as well as suggested by some of the latest CAM guidance. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads here would likely mean a quicker transition to a linear storm mode and a primary risk of severe winds. With storm coverage uncertain, trends will need to be monitored for a possible watch later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34450201 35320125 35629930 35609730 35319673 34529663 33829786 33750040 33500129 33610220 33940232 34450201 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Northwest... On Day 4/Wednesday, the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Great Basin will break down, as a belt of moderate midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Northwest. This will promote an increase in westerly surface winds along/east of the Cascades (especially in the Columbia Basin) -- where hot/dry conditions will remain in place. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, though sustained critical conditions may remain localized to the Cascade gaps (e.g., the Columbia Gorge) -- precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities at this time. The strengthening midlevel flow along the northern periphery of the ridge may continue to promote dry/breezy conditions across the Northwest (including northern CA into southern ID) through the remainder of the extended forecast period. However, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add additional probabilities. Additionally, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the Northwest late in the extended forecast period (i.e., Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday), as a midlevel moisture plume spreads northward along the western portion of the eastward-shifting large-scale ridge. Confidence in thunderstorm development is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm probabilities right now, though this scenario will be monitored closely. ...Central/Southern CA... An enhanced onshore pressure gradient will continue to support hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions primarily across inland portions of central and southern CA through the period. While this will favor elevated to locally critical conditions, the threat appears too localized for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Northwest... On Day 4/Wednesday, the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Great Basin will break down, as a belt of moderate midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Northwest. This will promote an increase in westerly surface winds along/east of the Cascades (especially in the Columbia Basin) -- where hot/dry conditions will remain in place. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, though sustained critical conditions may remain localized to the Cascade gaps (e.g., the Columbia Gorge) -- precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities at this time. The strengthening midlevel flow along the northern periphery of the ridge may continue to promote dry/breezy conditions across the Northwest (including northern CA into southern ID) through the remainder of the extended forecast period. However, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add additional probabilities. Additionally, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the Northwest late in the extended forecast period (i.e., Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday), as a midlevel moisture plume spreads northward along the western portion of the eastward-shifting large-scale ridge. Confidence in thunderstorm development is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm probabilities right now, though this scenario will be monitored closely. ...Central/Southern CA... An enhanced onshore pressure gradient will continue to support hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions primarily across inland portions of central and southern CA through the period. While this will favor elevated to locally critical conditions, the threat appears too localized for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Northwest... On Day 4/Wednesday, the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Great Basin will break down, as a belt of moderate midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Northwest. This will promote an increase in westerly surface winds along/east of the Cascades (especially in the Columbia Basin) -- where hot/dry conditions will remain in place. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, though sustained critical conditions may remain localized to the Cascade gaps (e.g., the Columbia Gorge) -- precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities at this time. The strengthening midlevel flow along the northern periphery of the ridge may continue to promote dry/breezy conditions across the Northwest (including northern CA into southern ID) through the remainder of the extended forecast period. However, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add additional probabilities. Additionally, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the Northwest late in the extended forecast period (i.e., Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday), as a midlevel moisture plume spreads northward along the western portion of the eastward-shifting large-scale ridge. Confidence in thunderstorm development is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm probabilities right now, though this scenario will be monitored closely. ...Central/Southern CA... An enhanced onshore pressure gradient will continue to support hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions primarily across inland portions of central and southern CA through the period. While this will favor elevated to locally critical conditions, the threat appears too localized for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Northwest... On Day 4/Wednesday, the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Great Basin will break down, as a belt of moderate midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Northwest. This will promote an increase in westerly surface winds along/east of the Cascades (especially in the Columbia Basin) -- where hot/dry conditions will remain in place. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, though sustained critical conditions may remain localized to the Cascade gaps (e.g., the Columbia Gorge) -- precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities at this time. The strengthening midlevel flow along the northern periphery of the ridge may continue to promote dry/breezy conditions across the Northwest (including northern CA into southern ID) through the remainder of the extended forecast period. However, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add additional probabilities. Additionally, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the Northwest late in the extended forecast period (i.e., Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday), as a midlevel moisture plume spreads northward along the western portion of the eastward-shifting large-scale ridge. Confidence in thunderstorm development is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm probabilities right now, though this scenario will be monitored closely. ...Central/Southern CA... An enhanced onshore pressure gradient will continue to support hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions primarily across inland portions of central and southern CA through the period. While this will favor elevated to locally critical conditions, the threat appears too localized for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Northwest... On Day 4/Wednesday, the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Great Basin will break down, as a belt of moderate midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Northwest. This will promote an increase in westerly surface winds along/east of the Cascades (especially in the Columbia Basin) -- where hot/dry conditions will remain in place. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, though sustained critical conditions may remain localized to the Cascade gaps (e.g., the Columbia Gorge) -- precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities at this time. The strengthening midlevel flow along the northern periphery of the ridge may continue to promote dry/breezy conditions across the Northwest (including northern CA into southern ID) through the remainder of the extended forecast period. However, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add additional probabilities. Additionally, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the Northwest late in the extended forecast period (i.e., Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday), as a midlevel moisture plume spreads northward along the western portion of the eastward-shifting large-scale ridge. Confidence in thunderstorm development is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm probabilities right now, though this scenario will be monitored closely. ...Central/Southern CA... An enhanced onshore pressure gradient will continue to support hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions primarily across inland portions of central and southern CA through the period. While this will favor elevated to locally critical conditions, the threat appears too localized for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Northwest... On Day 4/Wednesday, the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Great Basin will break down, as a belt of moderate midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Northwest. This will promote an increase in westerly surface winds along/east of the Cascades (especially in the Columbia Basin) -- where hot/dry conditions will remain in place. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, though sustained critical conditions may remain localized to the Cascade gaps (e.g., the Columbia Gorge) -- precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities at this time. The strengthening midlevel flow along the northern periphery of the ridge may continue to promote dry/breezy conditions across the Northwest (including northern CA into southern ID) through the remainder of the extended forecast period. However, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add additional probabilities. Additionally, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the Northwest late in the extended forecast period (i.e., Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday), as a midlevel moisture plume spreads northward along the western portion of the eastward-shifting large-scale ridge. Confidence in thunderstorm development is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm probabilities right now, though this scenario will be monitored closely. ...Central/Southern CA... An enhanced onshore pressure gradient will continue to support hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions primarily across inland portions of central and southern CA through the period. While this will favor elevated to locally critical conditions, the threat appears too localized for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Northwest... On Day 4/Wednesday, the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Great Basin will break down, as a belt of moderate midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Northwest. This will promote an increase in westerly surface winds along/east of the Cascades (especially in the Columbia Basin) -- where hot/dry conditions will remain in place. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, though sustained critical conditions may remain localized to the Cascade gaps (e.g., the Columbia Gorge) -- precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities at this time. The strengthening midlevel flow along the northern periphery of the ridge may continue to promote dry/breezy conditions across the Northwest (including northern CA into southern ID) through the remainder of the extended forecast period. However, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add additional probabilities. Additionally, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the Northwest late in the extended forecast period (i.e., Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday), as a midlevel moisture plume spreads northward along the western portion of the eastward-shifting large-scale ridge. Confidence in thunderstorm development is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm probabilities right now, though this scenario will be monitored closely. ...Central/Southern CA... An enhanced onshore pressure gradient will continue to support hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions primarily across inland portions of central and southern CA through the period. While this will favor elevated to locally critical conditions, the threat appears too localized for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Northwest... On Day 4/Wednesday, the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Great Basin will break down, as a belt of moderate midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Northwest. This will promote an increase in westerly surface winds along/east of the Cascades (especially in the Columbia Basin) -- where hot/dry conditions will remain in place. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, though sustained critical conditions may remain localized to the Cascade gaps (e.g., the Columbia Gorge) -- precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities at this time. The strengthening midlevel flow along the northern periphery of the ridge may continue to promote dry/breezy conditions across the Northwest (including northern CA into southern ID) through the remainder of the extended forecast period. However, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add additional probabilities. Additionally, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the Northwest late in the extended forecast period (i.e., Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday), as a midlevel moisture plume spreads northward along the western portion of the eastward-shifting large-scale ridge. Confidence in thunderstorm development is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm probabilities right now, though this scenario will be monitored closely. ...Central/Southern CA... An enhanced onshore pressure gradient will continue to support hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions primarily across inland portions of central and southern CA through the period. While this will favor elevated to locally critical conditions, the threat appears too localized for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Northwest... On Day 4/Wednesday, the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Great Basin will break down, as a belt of moderate midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Northwest. This will promote an increase in westerly surface winds along/east of the Cascades (especially in the Columbia Basin) -- where hot/dry conditions will remain in place. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, though sustained critical conditions may remain localized to the Cascade gaps (e.g., the Columbia Gorge) -- precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities at this time. The strengthening midlevel flow along the northern periphery of the ridge may continue to promote dry/breezy conditions across the Northwest (including northern CA into southern ID) through the remainder of the extended forecast period. However, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add additional probabilities. Additionally, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the Northwest late in the extended forecast period (i.e., Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday), as a midlevel moisture plume spreads northward along the western portion of the eastward-shifting large-scale ridge. Confidence in thunderstorm development is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm probabilities right now, though this scenario will be monitored closely. ...Central/Southern CA... An enhanced onshore pressure gradient will continue to support hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions primarily across inland portions of central and southern CA through the period. While this will favor elevated to locally critical conditions, the threat appears too localized for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Northwest... On Day 4/Wednesday, the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Great Basin will break down, as a belt of moderate midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Northwest. This will promote an increase in westerly surface winds along/east of the Cascades (especially in the Columbia Basin) -- where hot/dry conditions will remain in place. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, though sustained critical conditions may remain localized to the Cascade gaps (e.g., the Columbia Gorge) -- precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities at this time. The strengthening midlevel flow along the northern periphery of the ridge may continue to promote dry/breezy conditions across the Northwest (including northern CA into southern ID) through the remainder of the extended forecast period. However, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add additional probabilities. Additionally, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the Northwest late in the extended forecast period (i.e., Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday), as a midlevel moisture plume spreads northward along the western portion of the eastward-shifting large-scale ridge. Confidence in thunderstorm development is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm probabilities right now, though this scenario will be monitored closely. ...Central/Southern CA... An enhanced onshore pressure gradient will continue to support hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions primarily across inland portions of central and southern CA through the period. While this will favor elevated to locally critical conditions, the threat appears too localized for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Northwest... On Day 4/Wednesday, the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Great Basin will break down, as a belt of moderate midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Northwest. This will promote an increase in westerly surface winds along/east of the Cascades (especially in the Columbia Basin) -- where hot/dry conditions will remain in place. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, though sustained critical conditions may remain localized to the Cascade gaps (e.g., the Columbia Gorge) -- precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities at this time. The strengthening midlevel flow along the northern periphery of the ridge may continue to promote dry/breezy conditions across the Northwest (including northern CA into southern ID) through the remainder of the extended forecast period. However, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add additional probabilities. Additionally, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the Northwest late in the extended forecast period (i.e., Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday), as a midlevel moisture plume spreads northward along the western portion of the eastward-shifting large-scale ridge. Confidence in thunderstorm development is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm probabilities right now, though this scenario will be monitored closely. ...Central/Southern CA... An enhanced onshore pressure gradient will continue to support hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions primarily across inland portions of central and southern CA through the period. While this will favor elevated to locally critical conditions, the threat appears too localized for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0511 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 7 20:36:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...20Z Update... The Marginal and Slight Risks have been expanded southwestward across western portions of the TX South Plains, where cumulus is increasing this afternoon, and somewhat favorable instability and deep-layer shear are already in place. Uncertainty remains rather high regarding the potential for redevelopment across parts of Oklahoma later this afternoon into the evening, in the wake of substantial antecedent convection and outflow. However, relatively strong heating is underway across parts of southwest/south-central OK, and a few strong to severe storms remain possible by early evening. No changes have been made to the Oklahoma portion of the Slight Risk. No changes have been made to the other Slight Risks. Scattered strong to severe storms are still expected from the CO Front Range into eastern CO/northeast NM. Also, for parts of the middle/upper TX Coast into far southwest LA, the tornado threat is expected to increase late tonight into early Monday morning, as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding these areas. ..Dean.. 07/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024/ ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...20Z Update... The Marginal and Slight Risks have been expanded southwestward across western portions of the TX South Plains, where cumulus is increasing this afternoon, and somewhat favorable instability and deep-layer shear are already in place. Uncertainty remains rather high regarding the potential for redevelopment across parts of Oklahoma later this afternoon into the evening, in the wake of substantial antecedent convection and outflow. However, relatively strong heating is underway across parts of southwest/south-central OK, and a few strong to severe storms remain possible by early evening. No changes have been made to the Oklahoma portion of the Slight Risk. No changes have been made to the other Slight Risks. Scattered strong to severe storms are still expected from the CO Front Range into eastern CO/northeast NM. Also, for parts of the middle/upper TX Coast into far southwest LA, the tornado threat is expected to increase late tonight into early Monday morning, as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding these areas. ..Dean.. 07/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024/ ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...20Z Update... The Marginal and Slight Risks have been expanded southwestward across western portions of the TX South Plains, where cumulus is increasing this afternoon, and somewhat favorable instability and deep-layer shear are already in place. Uncertainty remains rather high regarding the potential for redevelopment across parts of Oklahoma later this afternoon into the evening, in the wake of substantial antecedent convection and outflow. However, relatively strong heating is underway across parts of southwest/south-central OK, and a few strong to severe storms remain possible by early evening. No changes have been made to the Oklahoma portion of the Slight Risk. No changes have been made to the other Slight Risks. Scattered strong to severe storms are still expected from the CO Front Range into eastern CO/northeast NM. Also, for parts of the middle/upper TX Coast into far southwest LA, the tornado threat is expected to increase late tonight into early Monday morning, as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding these areas. ..Dean.. 07/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024/ ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains. ...20Z Update... The Marginal and Slight Risks have been expanded southwestward across western portions of the TX South Plains, where cumulus is increasing this afternoon, and somewhat favorable instability and deep-layer shear are already in place. Uncertainty remains rather high regarding the potential for redevelopment across parts of Oklahoma later this afternoon into the evening, in the wake of substantial antecedent convection and outflow. However, relatively strong heating is underway across parts of southwest/south-central OK, and a few strong to severe storms remain possible by early evening. No changes have been made to the Oklahoma portion of the Slight Risk. No changes have been made to the other Slight Risks. Scattered strong to severe storms are still expected from the CO Front Range into eastern CO/northeast NM. Also, for parts of the middle/upper TX Coast into far southwest LA, the tornado threat is expected to increase late tonight into early Monday morning, as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding these areas. ..Dean.. 07/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024/ ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into tonight. ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico... Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25 later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle... A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake, although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon through early evening. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin... Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain limited. ...Southern Appalachians... Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging downbursts may occur. Read more