Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Ohio and far southwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period. However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization with any more persistent updrafts. Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a few surface based storms could occur. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range global models appear to be in reasonable large-scale agreement into the first half of day 6 (Monday). At this point, more substantial differences begin to emerge with respect to the amplification of the flow field across the U.S., as the main western U.S. trough begins a slow eastward advance. These differences are significant in that speed and timing of the advance of this system will influence surface cyclogenesis along what has been a persistent, roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone across the south-central and southeastern CONUS. Stronger/inland low development along this front would potential bring an increase in severe-weather potential, but this scenario is far too uncertain at this point to highlight through the second half of the period. Earlier in the period, a frontal low along the surface baroclinic zone is forecast to shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity, and east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley area day 4, before reaching the southern New England coastal vicinity by the start of day 5. However, very weak warm-sector instability is expected at this time, which should preclude severe risk. As the low deepens northward into the Canadian Maritimes, the trailing cold front should settle back into its recently persistent position from the southern Plains to the Southeast, and remain there into the Day 6 period ahead of the advancing western upper trough. Again, with weak instability near the boundary and southward into the warm sector, severe weather is not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range global models appear to be in reasonable large-scale agreement into the first half of day 6 (Monday). At this point, more substantial differences begin to emerge with respect to the amplification of the flow field across the U.S., as the main western U.S. trough begins a slow eastward advance. These differences are significant in that speed and timing of the advance of this system will influence surface cyclogenesis along what has been a persistent, roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone across the south-central and southeastern CONUS. Stronger/inland low development along this front would potential bring an increase in severe-weather potential, but this scenario is far too uncertain at this point to highlight through the second half of the period. Earlier in the period, a frontal low along the surface baroclinic zone is forecast to shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity, and east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley area day 4, before reaching the southern New England coastal vicinity by the start of day 5. However, very weak warm-sector instability is expected at this time, which should preclude severe risk. As the low deepens northward into the Canadian Maritimes, the trailing cold front should settle back into its recently persistent position from the southern Plains to the Southeast, and remain there into the Day 6 period ahead of the advancing western upper trough. Again, with weak instability near the boundary and southward into the warm sector, severe weather is not expected. Read more