Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could occur with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas... Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma. Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could occur with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas... Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma. Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025 Read more