Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more