Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

MD 0263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Areas affected...a small part of north-central Texas into far south-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252145Z - 260015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated, marginally severe storm or two may develop over a small part of North Texas, and perhaps into far south-central Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and radar indicate towering CU and deepening convective showers along I-35, especially from Dallas southward. Very little lift is present, though weak surface convergence is noted. Although the air mass is uncapped due to temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s, convection has been fighting both dry air aloft and lack of a lifting mechanism. That said, further CU clustering / deepening is expected, and a storm or two is expected. Any storms that develop will have brief hail or locally strong gust potential, with relatively short longevity. The steep lapse rates and modest northwest flow may favor slow south/southeastward-moving cells affecting a limited area in the near term. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31639802 32729775 33419764 34139764 34489770 34679747 34729702 34459668 33089655 32119672 31389707 31209747 31279789 31639802 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 25 22:29:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 25 21:46:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more