Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more