Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OR/WA/NORTHERN ID... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in later outlooks. A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet, near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OR/WA/NORTHERN ID... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in later outlooks. A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet, near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OR/WA/NORTHERN ID... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in later outlooks. A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet, near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OR/WA/NORTHERN ID... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in later outlooks. A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet, near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OR/WA/NORTHERN ID... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in later outlooks. A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet, near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OR/WA/NORTHERN ID... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in later outlooks. A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet, near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated risk area has been added to parts of the central Appalachians where westerly downslope winds are expected to increase to near 15 mph this afternoon with RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Lingering clouds are expected to clear by mid-afternoon as a surface trough traverses the Appalachians. Given recent fire activity over the past few days, the increasing winds and reduced RH should promote at least a low-end fire weather concern. ...Central/Southern Plains... The Elevated risk area across OK/KS has been expanded based on morning surface observations which show winds already increasing to near 15 mph and RH falling into the upper 20s. Localized fire weather conditions remain possible across northwest KS into adjacent areas of CO and NE, but confidence in RH reductions remains limited given increasing cloud cover. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated risk area has been added to parts of the central Appalachians where westerly downslope winds are expected to increase to near 15 mph this afternoon with RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Lingering clouds are expected to clear by mid-afternoon as a surface trough traverses the Appalachians. Given recent fire activity over the past few days, the increasing winds and reduced RH should promote at least a low-end fire weather concern. ...Central/Southern Plains... The Elevated risk area across OK/KS has been expanded based on morning surface observations which show winds already increasing to near 15 mph and RH falling into the upper 20s. Localized fire weather conditions remain possible across northwest KS into adjacent areas of CO and NE, but confidence in RH reductions remains limited given increasing cloud cover. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated risk area has been added to parts of the central Appalachians where westerly downslope winds are expected to increase to near 15 mph this afternoon with RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Lingering clouds are expected to clear by mid-afternoon as a surface trough traverses the Appalachians. Given recent fire activity over the past few days, the increasing winds and reduced RH should promote at least a low-end fire weather concern. ...Central/Southern Plains... The Elevated risk area across OK/KS has been expanded based on morning surface observations which show winds already increasing to near 15 mph and RH falling into the upper 20s. Localized fire weather conditions remain possible across northwest KS into adjacent areas of CO and NE, but confidence in RH reductions remains limited given increasing cloud cover. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated risk area has been added to parts of the central Appalachians where westerly downslope winds are expected to increase to near 15 mph this afternoon with RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Lingering clouds are expected to clear by mid-afternoon as a surface trough traverses the Appalachians. Given recent fire activity over the past few days, the increasing winds and reduced RH should promote at least a low-end fire weather concern. ...Central/Southern Plains... The Elevated risk area across OK/KS has been expanded based on morning surface observations which show winds already increasing to near 15 mph and RH falling into the upper 20s. Localized fire weather conditions remain possible across northwest KS into adjacent areas of CO and NE, but confidence in RH reductions remains limited given increasing cloud cover. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated risk area has been added to parts of the central Appalachians where westerly downslope winds are expected to increase to near 15 mph this afternoon with RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Lingering clouds are expected to clear by mid-afternoon as a surface trough traverses the Appalachians. Given recent fire activity over the past few days, the increasing winds and reduced RH should promote at least a low-end fire weather concern. ...Central/Southern Plains... The Elevated risk area across OK/KS has been expanded based on morning surface observations which show winds already increasing to near 15 mph and RH falling into the upper 20s. Localized fire weather conditions remain possible across northwest KS into adjacent areas of CO and NE, but confidence in RH reductions remains limited given increasing cloud cover. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more