Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S. Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream, a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the northwestern states. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low remains offshore through the period. ...Portions of the Northwest... As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area, atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area, allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts -- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S. Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream, a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the northwestern states. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low remains offshore through the period. ...Portions of the Northwest... As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area, atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area, allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts -- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S. Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream, a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the northwestern states. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low remains offshore through the period. ...Portions of the Northwest... As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area, atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area, allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts -- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S. Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream, a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the northwestern states. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low remains offshore through the period. ...Portions of the Northwest... As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area, atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area, allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts -- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S. Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream, a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the northwestern states. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low remains offshore through the period. ...Portions of the Northwest... As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area, atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area, allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts -- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S. Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream, a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the northwestern states. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low remains offshore through the period. ...Portions of the Northwest... As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area, atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area, allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts -- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S. Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream, a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the northwestern states. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low remains offshore through the period. ...Portions of the Northwest... As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area, atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area, allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts -- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S. Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream, a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the northwestern states. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low remains offshore through the period. ...Portions of the Northwest... As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area, atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area, allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts -- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S. Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream, a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the northwestern states. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low remains offshore through the period. ...Portions of the Northwest... As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area, atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area, allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts -- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more