Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No fire weather highlights are introduced for this update, though areas of fire weather concerns may emerge across the northern Plains and across the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Across the northern Plains, deep mixing within a relatively dry air mass may support areas of 15-20 mph winds with 20-30% RH. Across the Carolinas, pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. Latest guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if observations trend towards drier/windier solutions. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No fire weather highlights are introduced for this update, though areas of fire weather concerns may emerge across the northern Plains and across the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Across the northern Plains, deep mixing within a relatively dry air mass may support areas of 15-20 mph winds with 20-30% RH. Across the Carolinas, pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. Latest guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if observations trend towards drier/windier solutions. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No fire weather highlights are introduced for this update, though areas of fire weather concerns may emerge across the northern Plains and across the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Across the northern Plains, deep mixing within a relatively dry air mass may support areas of 15-20 mph winds with 20-30% RH. Across the Carolinas, pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. Latest guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if observations trend towards drier/windier solutions. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No fire weather highlights are introduced for this update, though areas of fire weather concerns may emerge across the northern Plains and across the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Across the northern Plains, deep mixing within a relatively dry air mass may support areas of 15-20 mph winds with 20-30% RH. Across the Carolinas, pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. Latest guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if observations trend towards drier/windier solutions. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No fire weather highlights are introduced for this update, though areas of fire weather concerns may emerge across the northern Plains and across the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Across the northern Plains, deep mixing within a relatively dry air mass may support areas of 15-20 mph winds with 20-30% RH. Across the Carolinas, pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. Latest guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if observations trend towards drier/windier solutions. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No fire weather highlights are introduced for this update, though areas of fire weather concerns may emerge across the northern Plains and across the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Across the northern Plains, deep mixing within a relatively dry air mass may support areas of 15-20 mph winds with 20-30% RH. Across the Carolinas, pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. Latest guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if observations trend towards drier/windier solutions. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No fire weather highlights are introduced for this update, though areas of fire weather concerns may emerge across the northern Plains and across the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Across the northern Plains, deep mixing within a relatively dry air mass may support areas of 15-20 mph winds with 20-30% RH. Across the Carolinas, pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. Latest guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if observations trend towards drier/windier solutions. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OR/WA/NORTHERN ID... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in later outlooks. A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet, near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more