Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

MD 0064 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0843 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Indiana and much of north-central Ohio Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 060243Z - 060845Z SUMMARY...Freezing drizzle and light freezing rain showers are expected to increase in coverage/intensity through tonight. Periods of moderate to locally heavy freezing rain are possible. DISCUSSION...Evening upper air/surface analysis showed a broad warm air advection regime was strengthening ahead of a low amplitude upper trough and warm front over portions of the middle OH Valley. North of the surface front, temperatures are near or just below freezing with several areas of light to occasionally moderate precipitation. Over the last couple of hours, area surface stations have observed a mosaic of freezing drizzle, snow/ice pellets and light freezing rain showers as the initial onset of stronger warm air advection. Thus far, intermittent freezing rain rates have been light, generally below 0.02 in/hr. However, recent radar trends show an increase in deeper convective cores (some with lightning) and moderate stratiform developing over east-central IN and far western OH. This intensification trend is expected to continue as large-scale ascent from an approaching shortwave trough should bolster low-level warm advection (850-700 mb temps of 4-6 C) through the overnight hours. Continued large-scale ascent, in combination with weak elevated buoyancy (~500 J/kg of MUCAPE) will support more widespread and heavier precipitation across portions of eastern IN and north-central OH. Moderate to locally heavy freezing rain, with rates of 0.05-0.1 in/hr are possible, especially with the heavier convective elements. Freezing rain concerns are highest primarily across north-central OH where surface temperatures are below 30 F and accretion will be most efficient. However, some icing is possible over much of central/southern OH where surface temperatures are more marginal. Given the expected increase in icing, travel disruptions are possible. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40278575 41468584 41658482 41498255 41498129 41048073 40068133 39558253 39648353 39758425 39878508 40278575 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Tennessee and southern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 060608Z - 060815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing weak destabilization within the warm air advection regime over the TN/KY border region could support surface-based storms and a risk for hail, damaging winds, or a tornado overnight. A WW is possible, but it remains unclear if one is needed. DISCUSSION...As of 0600 UTC, regional observations show weak, but likely surface-based, destabilization is ongoing over parts of the central MS River Valley and TN/KY border region. Large-scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Midwest is supporting persistent low-level warm air advection over much of the Mid south. Widespread predominately elevated convection, is ongoing north of the surface warm front over the OH Valley. While to the south, surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s F were advecting into western TN beneath fairly steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Sufficient to offset nocturnal stabilization, continued low-level theta-E advection is supporting weak to moderate MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Surface-based storm development appears possible along and south of the frontal zone over north-central TN and far southern KY, and farther west along a cold front. Enlarged low-level hodographs, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, could foster a couple sustained surface-based supercells or short bowing segments capable of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Current observational trends and recent HRRR guidance show a gradual increase in convective coverage over the next few hours. It remains unclear how much of the convection will remain surface-based along and south of the front. However, with strong shear and sufficient moisture/buoyancy in place, the severe risk could warrant a WW and conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36898890 37278723 37558528 37628350 37108263 36218301 35978361 35688706 35688817 35818894 36898890 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more