Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Areas affected...Southeast FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251755Z - 252030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening (3-7pm). DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum over the shelf waters to the west of the Everglades/Keys moving east over the region this afternoon. Visible-satellite imagery shows a cumulus field destabilizing from near Lake Okeechobee southward, where temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 80s with 68-70 deg F dewpoints. Modifying the 12 UTC Miami raob for current conditions yields around 1700 J/kg MLCAPE with minimal CINH. Although flow in the lowest 2 km is weak (below 15 kt), westerly flow increasing from 25 kt to 40 kt in the 3-7 km layer, is resulting in a wind profile that will support some storm organization---mainly in the form of multicells. Convection-allowing model guidance (12 UTC HREF and recent time-lagged HRRR runs) show greater storm coverage beginning in the 3-5pm period. An initial threat for a stronger storm over the greater Miami area will gradually expand as storms develop north/northwest in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee later this afternoon. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-13 to -12 deg C) will support hail potential with the stronger cells. Steep surface-850 mb lapse rates with the more intense water-loaded cores will also yield a risk for damaging gusts (55-70 mph) with the stronger storms. This activity will likely diminish during the evening as the boundary layer slowly stabilizes and/or storms move offshore. ..Smith/Hart.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... LAT...LON 25308043 25408058 26688114 27478119 27708093 27868036 26747994 25448009 25308025 25308043 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more