Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern High Plains across southern Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms. During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm. Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time. ...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley... As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow, suggests potential for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern High Plains across southern Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms. During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm. Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time. ...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley... As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow, suggests potential for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern High Plains across southern Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms. During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm. Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time. ...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley... As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow, suggests potential for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern High Plains across southern Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms. During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm. Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time. ...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley... As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow, suggests potential for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

MD 0265 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE RED RIVER
Mesoscale Discussion 0265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Areas affected...south-central into southeast Oklahoma to the Red River Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260409Z - 260615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will increase in coverage, and sporadic marginally severe hail may occur. DISCUSSION...In the wake of the diurnally driven cluster hail event over North Texas, the air mass remains unstable with MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg extending into south-central OK this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are already developing well north of the warm front into OK, and this trend should persist given modest southwest flow around 850 mb aiding theta-e advection. This zone of weak lift is not expected to move much over the next several hours. However, this is also near the midlevel temperature gradient, and as such, it should be relatively easy to get further storm development. While not as favorable an environment as farther south, at least isolated marginally severe hail is forecast. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35319798 34579571 34339511 34039472 33709484 33669644 33829711 34079745 34619785 34879810 35139816 35319798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z. Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast. ...Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational potential. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z. Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast. ...Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational potential. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z. Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast. ...Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational potential. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z. Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast. ...Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational potential. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z. Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast. ...Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational potential. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025 Read more

MD 0264 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND FAR SOUTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Areas affected...portions of north-central TX and far southern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260147Z - 260315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms ongoing across north-central TX and southern OK may persist into this evening with a continued risk for occasional hail. These storms should begin to gradually weaken over the next couple of hours. Additional storms later tonight may pose an isolated risk for isolated hail and damaging winds, but the magnitude of the threat remains unclear. DISCUSSION...This evening, regional radar imagery showed a cluster of splitting supercells had developed and produced occasional reports of severe hail across parts of southern OK and the DFW Metroplex. SPC mesoanalysis and the 00z FWD sounding show these storms ongoing within a local bullseye of 1000-1500 J/kg and modest effective shear sufficient for supercells. While not long-lived, and limited by stronger inhibition east of DFW, a few of these storms may persist for a couple more hours this evening before nocturnal stabilization gradually results in weakening. Until then, the stronger and more isolated updrafts will remain capable of occasional severe hail, given the steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell storm mode. Farther north across the Red River Valley into southern OK, a second round of storms may evolve as the nocturnal low-level jet intensifies later tonight. Most guidance suggests a few elevated storms could develop after 3-4z, and track southeastward across southern OK and north-central/northeast TX. While it is unclear what impact the ongoing storms may have on this more elevated regime, modest deep-layer shear, and around 1000 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE could support a localized hail threat later this evening. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32599745 33169756 34149766 34619735 34519606 33879542 33519539 32949591 32359659 32339714 32599745 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more