Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Tennessee and southern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 060608Z - 060815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing weak destabilization within the warm air advection regime over the TN/KY border region could support surface-based storms and a risk for hail, damaging winds, or a tornado overnight. A WW is possible, but it remains unclear if one is needed. DISCUSSION...As of 0600 UTC, regional observations show weak, but likely surface-based, destabilization is ongoing over parts of the central MS River Valley and TN/KY border region. Large-scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Midwest is supporting persistent low-level warm air advection over much of the Mid south. Widespread predominately elevated convection, is ongoing north of the surface warm front over the OH Valley. While to the south, surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s F were advecting into western TN beneath fairly steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Sufficient to offset nocturnal stabilization, continued low-level theta-E advection is supporting weak to moderate MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Surface-based storm development appears possible along and south of the frontal zone over north-central TN and far southern KY, and farther west along a cold front. Enlarged low-level hodographs, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, could foster a couple sustained surface-based supercells or short bowing segments capable of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Current observational trends and recent HRRR guidance show a gradual increase in convective coverage over the next few hours. It remains unclear how much of the convection will remain surface-based along and south of the front. However, with strong shear and sufficient moisture/buoyancy in place, the severe risk could warrant a WW and conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36898890 37278723 37558528 37628350 37108263 36218301 35978361 35688706 35688817 35818894 36898890 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more