Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more