Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE HOP TO 15 NE BWG TO 20 SSE LEX TO 40 WSW HTS. ..BENTLEY..02/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-025-031-045-051-053-057-061-065-079-087-099-109- 121-125-129-137-141-147-151-153-155-165-169-171-173-175-189-197- 199-203-207-213-217-227-231-235-237-061340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BREATHITT BUTLER CASEY CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL GARRARD GREEN HART JACKSON KNOX LAUREL LEE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MENIFEE METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR WARREN WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0003 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0067 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061019Z - 061145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A line of storms has developed across central Kentucky with a threat for isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed along the cold front in central Kentucky this morning. Low 60s dewpoints and mid-60s temperatures ahead of the front are yielding an environment with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Strong effective shear (~50 knots) will support occasional supercell structures from the stronger cells which develop within the line. In addition, low-level shear (300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per HPX VWP) will be favorable for some tornado potential with any stronger, organized supercell structures. In addition, a conditional strong tornado threat does exist if a strong, longer lasting, supercell can develop. Therefore, these stronger cells embedded within the line will need to be monitored through the morning for the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. The threat is expected to remain too isolated for a watch, but if a more widespread threat with multiple mature supercells develops, a watch may be needed. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH... LAT...LON 36938812 37538663 38238536 38538463 38368288 37928262 37258325 36858427 36648546 36708754 36938812 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more