Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys... As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the overnight period. While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of the period. Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk. Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through the end of the period. ...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas... A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development -- extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period development over the Concho Valley vicinity. The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a strong gust with any storm that could develop. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys... As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the overnight period. While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of the period. Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk. Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through the end of the period. ...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas... A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development -- extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period development over the Concho Valley vicinity. The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a strong gust with any storm that could develop. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys... As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the overnight period. While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of the period. Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk. Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through the end of the period. ...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas... A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development -- extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period development over the Concho Valley vicinity. The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a strong gust with any storm that could develop. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys... As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the overnight period. While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of the period. Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk. Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through the end of the period. ...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas... A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development -- extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period development over the Concho Valley vicinity. The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a strong gust with any storm that could develop. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys... As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the overnight period. While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of the period. Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk. Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through the end of the period. ...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas... A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development -- extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period development over the Concho Valley vicinity. The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a strong gust with any storm that could develop. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys... As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the overnight period. While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of the period. Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk. Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through the end of the period. ...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas... A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development -- extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period development over the Concho Valley vicinity. The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a strong gust with any storm that could develop. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado and wind threat is forecast through this evening across portions of the western Gulf Coast States. Isolated severe hail is also possible from the Upper Midwest into Nebraska later this evening/night. ...Western Gulf Coast States... Southern-stream upper trough is currently located over northeast Mexico/far West TX. This feature is forecast to shift slowly east across south TX into the lower Sabine River Valley by the end of the period as modest mid-level flow translates across the northern Gulf Basin. Low-latitude nature of this feature should result in deeper convergence holding offshore much of the period. This is especially true given the multiple ongoing MCSs that are noted from the lower Rio Grande Valley into the northwestern Gulf Basin. Substantial convective overturning has occurred inland and air mass recovery will be limited across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Even so, adequate buoyancy will likely exist across far southeast TX into southern LA such that a few robust storms could emerge within the larger complex of convection. Forecast soundings suggest a brief tornado or wind gust will be the primary risks, and this appears to be a low probability threat. ...Upper Midwest into Nebraska... Northern Plains upper ridge is forecast to flatten a bit today as heights fall across the Dakotas ahead of a weak short-wave trough. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests one notable short wave is located over eastern MT. This feature will advance east today and sustain a broad swatch of low-level warm advection along a corridor from MN into northern lower MI. In the wake of the disturbance, surface pressures will build over SK/MB into the Dakotas and force a cold front to a position from southwest MN-central NE by 29/00z. While warm advection will be responsible for multiple bouts of elevated convection, any surface-based thunderstorm development should be noted along/ahead of the cold front as boundary-layer temperatures will warm rapidly and 0-3km lapse rates will steepen. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon along the wind shift over NE and high-based convection should develop. Gusty winds and hail are the primary concerns with this isolated activity. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado and wind threat is forecast through this evening across portions of the western Gulf Coast States. Isolated severe hail is also possible from the Upper Midwest into Nebraska later this evening/night. ...Western Gulf Coast States... Southern-stream upper trough is currently located over northeast Mexico/far West TX. This feature is forecast to shift slowly east across south TX into the lower Sabine River Valley by the end of the period as modest mid-level flow translates across the northern Gulf Basin. Low-latitude nature of this feature should result in deeper convergence holding offshore much of the period. This is especially true given the multiple ongoing MCSs that are noted from the lower Rio Grande Valley into the northwestern Gulf Basin. Substantial convective overturning has occurred inland and air mass recovery will be limited across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Even so, adequate buoyancy will likely exist across far southeast TX into southern LA such that a few robust storms could emerge within the larger complex of convection. Forecast soundings suggest a brief tornado or wind gust will be the primary risks, and this appears to be a low probability threat. ...Upper Midwest into Nebraska... Northern Plains upper ridge is forecast to flatten a bit today as heights fall across the Dakotas ahead of a weak short-wave trough. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests one notable short wave is located over eastern MT. This feature will advance east today and sustain a broad swatch of low-level warm advection along a corridor from MN into northern lower MI. In the wake of the disturbance, surface pressures will build over SK/MB into the Dakotas and force a cold front to a position from southwest MN-central NE by 29/00z. While warm advection will be responsible for multiple bouts of elevated convection, any surface-based thunderstorm development should be noted along/ahead of the cold front as boundary-layer temperatures will warm rapidly and 0-3km lapse rates will steepen. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon along the wind shift over NE and high-based convection should develop. Gusty winds and hail are the primary concerns with this isolated activity. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 03/28/2025 Read more