SPC Feb 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 5, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
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