Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight. Day 5/Tuesday looks to be a relative down day in terms of severe potential, with moisture beginning to return northward into the central U.S. ahead of the next system. Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster) GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days. Beyond Day 6, confidence in evolution of the large-scale features diminishes further, due to the aforementioned differences between operations runs of the global models. As such, no areas will be delineated beyond Day 6. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight. Day 5/Tuesday looks to be a relative down day in terms of severe potential, with moisture beginning to return northward into the central U.S. ahead of the next system. Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster) GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days. Beyond Day 6, confidence in evolution of the large-scale features diminishes further, due to the aforementioned differences between operations runs of the global models. As such, no areas will be delineated beyond Day 6. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight. Day 5/Tuesday looks to be a relative down day in terms of severe potential, with moisture beginning to return northward into the central U.S. ahead of the next system. Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster) GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days. Beyond Day 6, confidence in evolution of the large-scale features diminishes further, due to the aforementioned differences between operations runs of the global models. As such, no areas will be delineated beyond Day 6. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight. Day 5/Tuesday looks to be a relative down day in terms of severe potential, with moisture beginning to return northward into the central U.S. ahead of the next system. Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster) GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days. Beyond Day 6, confidence in evolution of the large-scale features diminishes further, due to the aforementioned differences between operations runs of the global models. As such, no areas will be delineated beyond Day 6. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight. Day 5/Tuesday looks to be a relative down day in terms of severe potential, with moisture beginning to return northward into the central U.S. ahead of the next system. Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster) GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days. Beyond Day 6, confidence in evolution of the large-scale features diminishes further, due to the aforementioned differences between operations runs of the global models. As such, no areas will be delineated beyond Day 6. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight. Day 5/Tuesday looks to be a relative down day in terms of severe potential, with moisture beginning to return northward into the central U.S. ahead of the next system. Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster) GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days. Beyond Day 6, confidence in evolution of the large-scale features diminishes further, due to the aforementioned differences between operations runs of the global models. As such, no areas will be delineated beyond Day 6. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more