Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track, with the primary change made to the updated Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook being an expansion of Critical highlights further northeast into eastern New Mexico, and east into western Texas. In these areas, guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for several hours Saturday afternoon. Some guidance members are also hinting at dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Mid Atlantic. However, preceding rainfall may dampen fuels in these areas, so additional assessments will need to be made on rain impacts to available fuels before Elevated highlights may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track, with the primary change made to the updated Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook being an expansion of Critical highlights further northeast into eastern New Mexico, and east into western Texas. In these areas, guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for several hours Saturday afternoon. Some guidance members are also hinting at dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Mid Atlantic. However, preceding rainfall may dampen fuels in these areas, so additional assessments will need to be made on rain impacts to available fuels before Elevated highlights may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track, with the primary change made to the updated Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook being an expansion of Critical highlights further northeast into eastern New Mexico, and east into western Texas. In these areas, guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for several hours Saturday afternoon. Some guidance members are also hinting at dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Mid Atlantic. However, preceding rainfall may dampen fuels in these areas, so additional assessments will need to be made on rain impacts to available fuels before Elevated highlights may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track, with the primary change made to the updated Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook being an expansion of Critical highlights further northeast into eastern New Mexico, and east into western Texas. In these areas, guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for several hours Saturday afternoon. Some guidance members are also hinting at dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Mid Atlantic. However, preceding rainfall may dampen fuels in these areas, so additional assessments will need to be made on rain impacts to available fuels before Elevated highlights may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track, with the primary change made to the updated Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook being an expansion of Critical highlights further northeast into eastern New Mexico, and east into western Texas. In these areas, guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for several hours Saturday afternoon. Some guidance members are also hinting at dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Mid Atlantic. However, preceding rainfall may dampen fuels in these areas, so additional assessments will need to be made on rain impacts to available fuels before Elevated highlights may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track, with the primary change made to the updated Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook being an expansion of Critical highlights further northeast into eastern New Mexico, and east into western Texas. In these areas, guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for several hours Saturday afternoon. Some guidance members are also hinting at dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Mid Atlantic. However, preceding rainfall may dampen fuels in these areas, so additional assessments will need to be made on rain impacts to available fuels before Elevated highlights may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..03/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-019-023-031-069-081-085-115-282040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON TXC005-199-241-245-291-347-351-361-373-403-405-419-457-282040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER GMZ430-432-282040- CW Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..03/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-019-023-031-069-081-085-115-281940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON TXC005-199-241-245-291-347-351-361-373-403-405-419-457-281940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER GMZ430-432-281940- CW Read more

MD 0274 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EAST TX/WESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east TX/western LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281707Z - 281830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in the tornado threat is expected this afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A small supercell has evolved late this morning across Newton County, TX, with additional redevelopment noted to the east/northeast of Houston. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s F across western LA, and similar warming will be possible this afternoon across southeast TX outside of ongoing convective development. This warming will allow MLCAPE to approach 1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, low-level flow remains rather strong on area VWPs, with backed surface winds supporting 0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. With continued destabilization, the favorable low-level SRH will support some increase in the tornado threat into the afternoon, both with the ongoing supercell, and with additional supercellular development that may evolve out of ongoing convection across southeast TX. Given the potential for a couple tornadoes within a focused mesoscale corridor, Tornado Watch issuance is possible early this afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29739412 29959478 31329484 32049436 32289361 32179312 31799290 31129297 30189296 29879309 29799370 29739412 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST TX AND WESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east TX and western LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281546Z - 281745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible into this afternoon, with a threat of locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. DISCUSSION...Several northward moving cells/clusters are ongoing across east TX late this morning, to the east of a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough moving slowly eastward across south TX. Area VWPs depict rather strong southerly low-level flow, with some low-level hodograph curvature implied where surface winds remain backed out of the southeast. MLCAPE may gradually increase near/above 500 J/kg into late morning and this afternoon, with continued storm development possible within the moist and uncapped environment. While deep-layer shear will remain relatively modest, effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 will support occasional storm organization. Given the relatively favorable low-level shear/SRH and rich boundary-layer moisture, a tornado cannot be ruled out with any sustained cells, while locally damaging gusts will be possible with any stronger cells/clusters. Watch issuance is unlikely in the short term due to the isolated nature of the threat, but trends will be monitored for the potential of stronger diurnal heating/destabilization and a locally greater threat into the afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 28909546 30769526 32039493 32459449 32289335 31929335 31089320 30499319 30009323 29389344 29149377 28909546 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more