Severe Storms

MD 0275 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the middle/upper Texas Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281902Z - 282030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado could accompany storms near the middle/upper Texas coast this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster has evolved early this afternoon near the middle TX coast, immediately in advance of a midlevel vorticity maximum embedded within a larger mid/upper trough over central/south TX. Modest diurnal heating has allowed MLCAPE to rise near 1000 J/kg downstream of this cluster, with some development of deep convection also noted closer to Galveston Bay. While flow in the lowest 3 km has weakened somewhat compared to this morning (as noted on the KHGX VWP), modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH remains in place across the region. The ongoing storm cluster earlier produced a 55 mph gust, and strong to isolated severe gusts will remain possible through the afternoon before this cluster moves offshore, and a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX... LAT...LON 29459599 29919504 29899457 29829437 29459443 29219450 29099470 28809530 28519578 28409606 28379634 28539630 29459599 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..03/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-019-023-031-069-081-085-115-282140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON TXC005-199-241-245-291-347-351-361-373-403-405-419-457-282140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER GMZ430-432-282140- CW Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A severe storms threat will continue across coastal Texas into Louisiana this afternoon, with primary risks including a tornado or two and damaging wind. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was added across portions of far southeastern Texas into western/central Louisiana with this update. Through the morning/afternoon, supercell development has been ongoing with rotation observed on radar. The environment across this region is characterized by strong low-level shear, which is evident in enlarged low level hodographs on VAD profiles from LCH and POE. Daytime heating has led to MLCAPE around 500 J/kg across the region with dew points in the mid to upper 60s (some 70s along the coast). Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon as upper level forcing increases with a vort max currently upstream across southern Texas, with potential for more supercells and a tornado or two. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk across Nebraska into the Upper Midwest remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... Satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over south-central TX into northeastern Mexico, and a vorticity max over the middle coastal plain of TX. Largely displaced from incipient outflow-generated air from a couple of western Gulf thunderstorm clusters, southeasterly low-level flow is advecting richer moisture into southeast TX/western LA. Cloud breaks will lead to some heating from the middle to upper coasts of TX into western LA. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s near the coast to the mid 60s as far north as I-20, will contribute to 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per model forecast soundings. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a moist boundary layer and appreciable 0-3km CAPE, will support a conditional setup for several mini supercells. The main threats with this highly dependent mesoscale scenario would be a risk for a couple of tornadoes and localized damaging gusts. Uncertainty is rather high regarding this forecast due to low confidence in a few warm sector cells developing this afternoon. However, if isolated to scattered storms were to develop, the greatest potential severe threat would occur primarily in the 18-00 UTC period. This potential activity would likely diminish by early to mid evening owing to the loss of daytime heating. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A severe storms threat will continue across coastal Texas into Louisiana this afternoon, with primary risks including a tornado or two and damaging wind. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was added across portions of far southeastern Texas into western/central Louisiana with this update. Through the morning/afternoon, supercell development has been ongoing with rotation observed on radar. The environment across this region is characterized by strong low-level shear, which is evident in enlarged low level hodographs on VAD profiles from LCH and POE. Daytime heating has led to MLCAPE around 500 J/kg across the region with dew points in the mid to upper 60s (some 70s along the coast). Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon as upper level forcing increases with a vort max currently upstream across southern Texas, with potential for more supercells and a tornado or two. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk across Nebraska into the Upper Midwest remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... Satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over south-central TX into northeastern Mexico, and a vorticity max over the middle coastal plain of TX. Largely displaced from incipient outflow-generated air from a couple of western Gulf thunderstorm clusters, southeasterly low-level flow is advecting richer moisture into southeast TX/western LA. Cloud breaks will lead to some heating from the middle to upper coasts of TX into western LA. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s near the coast to the mid 60s as far north as I-20, will contribute to 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per model forecast soundings. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a moist boundary layer and appreciable 0-3km CAPE, will support a conditional setup for several mini supercells. The main threats with this highly dependent mesoscale scenario would be a risk for a couple of tornadoes and localized damaging gusts. Uncertainty is rather high regarding this forecast due to low confidence in a few warm sector cells developing this afternoon. However, if isolated to scattered storms were to develop, the greatest potential severe threat would occur primarily in the 18-00 UTC period. This potential activity would likely diminish by early to mid evening owing to the loss of daytime heating. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A severe storms threat will continue across coastal Texas into Louisiana this afternoon, with primary risks including a tornado or two and damaging wind. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was added across portions of far southeastern Texas into western/central Louisiana with this update. Through the morning/afternoon, supercell development has been ongoing with rotation observed on radar. The environment across this region is characterized by strong low-level shear, which is evident in enlarged low level hodographs on VAD profiles from LCH and POE. Daytime heating has led to MLCAPE around 500 J/kg across the region with dew points in the mid to upper 60s (some 70s along the coast). Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon as upper level forcing increases with a vort max currently upstream across southern Texas, with potential for more supercells and a tornado or two. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk across Nebraska into the Upper Midwest remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... Satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over south-central TX into northeastern Mexico, and a vorticity max over the middle coastal plain of TX. Largely displaced from incipient outflow-generated air from a couple of western Gulf thunderstorm clusters, southeasterly low-level flow is advecting richer moisture into southeast TX/western LA. Cloud breaks will lead to some heating from the middle to upper coasts of TX into western LA. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s near the coast to the mid 60s as far north as I-20, will contribute to 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per model forecast soundings. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a moist boundary layer and appreciable 0-3km CAPE, will support a conditional setup for several mini supercells. The main threats with this highly dependent mesoscale scenario would be a risk for a couple of tornadoes and localized damaging gusts. Uncertainty is rather high regarding this forecast due to low confidence in a few warm sector cells developing this afternoon. However, if isolated to scattered storms were to develop, the greatest potential severe threat would occur primarily in the 18-00 UTC period. This potential activity would likely diminish by early to mid evening owing to the loss of daytime heating. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. Read more