Severe Storms

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving northeastward across the central Great Plains towards the Upper Midwest, while an upstream disturbance moves from eastern AZ into the southern Great Plains tonight. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Surface analysis shows lower 60s dewpoints streaming northward on southerly low-level flow this morning from north TX to the KS/OK border. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Forecast soundings favor supercell development with activity that develops south of the front across west-central OK. Large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) may accompany these storms early in their convective life cycle. Despite increasing CINH during the evening, lower 60s dewpoints in place with 500-mb temperatures around -15 deg C may aid the development of a tornado risk from central into northeast OK as storms mature and eventually grow upscale. Severe gusts will probably become more prevalent with time as this cluster moves east-northeast into parts of northeast OK and eventually into MO later tonight, perhaps with the wind threat slowly diminishing late. Farther south, a conditional severe threat exists south of the Red River from north TX southwestward into parts of the Concho Valley. It appears the airmass will remain capped during the day in the vicinity of the dryline, with storm development likely delayed until late evening into the overnight per recent model guidance. Very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear magnitudes (50 kt effective shear), and 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will support a severe risk with any sustained storms. Models vary between very isolated coverage and scattered storm coverage, especially over parts of central into north TX. Given consistency in some model guidance (e.g., HRRR model run to run, GFS, ECMWF) showing some convective signal, have opted to increase hail probabilities to level-2 Slight Risk overnight. Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger storms (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter). ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward this afternoon across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Although deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization and transient rotation with the stronger storms. Cells moving northeastward and inland over the central Gulf Coast may pose a threat for a brief tornado, as well as a localized risk for damaging gusts. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/29/2025 Read more