Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern High Plains though the extended period, though confidence in fire weather potential diminishes beyond this weekend. Long-range ensemble solutions show reasonably good agreement in a shift from a ridge-dominated upper-level regime to a more progressive regime by early next week. This transition will feature several low-amplitude upper troughs propagating across the CONUS, each with attendant chances for precipitation. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest that most regions will see at least some accumulating rain/snow potential through the middle of next week with the exception of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent fuel drying across these regions will likely be exacerbated by the limited rain/snowfall potential through next week. Breezy conditions may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains each day as lee troughing develops with the passage of upper disturbances over the central Rockies. D3/Friday continues to see the best signal for 20+ mph winds per GEFS/ECENS probabilities with weaker signals noted over the weekend and into early next week - likely the result of a cold frontal intrusion that is expected on D4/Sat into D5/Sun. The dry air mass already in place across the southern High Plains will likely remain entrenched over the region and foster daily RH reductions into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable on D3/Friday, though more localized/transient concerns may emerge across southern NM and far west TX over the weekend and into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern High Plains though the extended period, though confidence in fire weather potential diminishes beyond this weekend. Long-range ensemble solutions show reasonably good agreement in a shift from a ridge-dominated upper-level regime to a more progressive regime by early next week. This transition will feature several low-amplitude upper troughs propagating across the CONUS, each with attendant chances for precipitation. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest that most regions will see at least some accumulating rain/snow potential through the middle of next week with the exception of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent fuel drying across these regions will likely be exacerbated by the limited rain/snowfall potential through next week. Breezy conditions may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains each day as lee troughing develops with the passage of upper disturbances over the central Rockies. D3/Friday continues to see the best signal for 20+ mph winds per GEFS/ECENS probabilities with weaker signals noted over the weekend and into early next week - likely the result of a cold frontal intrusion that is expected on D4/Sat into D5/Sun. The dry air mass already in place across the southern High Plains will likely remain entrenched over the region and foster daily RH reductions into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable on D3/Friday, though more localized/transient concerns may emerge across southern NM and far west TX over the weekend and into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern High Plains though the extended period, though confidence in fire weather potential diminishes beyond this weekend. Long-range ensemble solutions show reasonably good agreement in a shift from a ridge-dominated upper-level regime to a more progressive regime by early next week. This transition will feature several low-amplitude upper troughs propagating across the CONUS, each with attendant chances for precipitation. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest that most regions will see at least some accumulating rain/snow potential through the middle of next week with the exception of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent fuel drying across these regions will likely be exacerbated by the limited rain/snowfall potential through next week. Breezy conditions may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains each day as lee troughing develops with the passage of upper disturbances over the central Rockies. D3/Friday continues to see the best signal for 20+ mph winds per GEFS/ECENS probabilities with weaker signals noted over the weekend and into early next week - likely the result of a cold frontal intrusion that is expected on D4/Sat into D5/Sun. The dry air mass already in place across the southern High Plains will likely remain entrenched over the region and foster daily RH reductions into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable on D3/Friday, though more localized/transient concerns may emerge across southern NM and far west TX over the weekend and into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...20z Update... The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made to the overall categorical outlook. A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...20z Update... The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made to the overall categorical outlook. A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...20z Update... The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made to the overall categorical outlook. A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...20z Update... The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made to the overall categorical outlook. A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...20z Update... The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made to the overall categorical outlook. A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...20z Update... The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made to the overall categorical outlook. A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...20z Update... The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made to the overall categorical outlook. A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... General, broad mid/upper ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes is likely to be maintained, and a prominent influence across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic latitudes, of the eastern Pacific. To the east of the Pacific ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded smaller scale perturbations, will linger across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. This is likely to support deepening surface troughing, and perhaps cyclogenesis, to the lee of the Rockies. However, there remains substantive spread concerning this, as models continue to struggle with their varying ability to account for the seasonably cold air now entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Some erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of this air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to westerly return flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic. However, it appears that associated moisture emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for ascent and warm, capping layers aloft. Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of the Northwest into northern Great Plains. However, based on latest forecast soundings, it remains unclear whether associated boundary-layer based and/or elevated convective development will become capable of producing more than very transient/isolated lightning. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... General, broad mid/upper ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes is likely to be maintained, and a prominent influence across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic latitudes, of the eastern Pacific. To the east of the Pacific ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded smaller scale perturbations, will linger across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. This is likely to support deepening surface troughing, and perhaps cyclogenesis, to the lee of the Rockies. However, there remains substantive spread concerning this, as models continue to struggle with their varying ability to account for the seasonably cold air now entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Some erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of this air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to westerly return flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic. However, it appears that associated moisture emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for ascent and warm, capping layers aloft. Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of the Northwest into northern Great Plains. However, based on latest forecast soundings, it remains unclear whether associated boundary-layer based and/or elevated convective development will become capable of producing more than very transient/isolated lightning. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... General, broad mid/upper ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes is likely to be maintained, and a prominent influence across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic latitudes, of the eastern Pacific. To the east of the Pacific ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded smaller scale perturbations, will linger across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. This is likely to support deepening surface troughing, and perhaps cyclogenesis, to the lee of the Rockies. However, there remains substantive spread concerning this, as models continue to struggle with their varying ability to account for the seasonably cold air now entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Some erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of this air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to westerly return flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic. However, it appears that associated moisture emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for ascent and warm, capping layers aloft. Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of the Northwest into northern Great Plains. However, based on latest forecast soundings, it remains unclear whether associated boundary-layer based and/or elevated convective development will become capable of producing more than very transient/isolated lightning. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more