Severe Storms

MD 0289 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 67... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Portions of north-central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67... Valid 300235Z - 300400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and severe wind gusts may be increasing across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data indicates a recent intensification of thunderstorms in central Texas, including a supercell cluster tracking eastward into southern Erath County. These storms are intercepting richer boundary-layer moisture (lower/middle 60s F dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by 00Z FWD sounding). Despite increased inhibition at the base of the EML, the favorable buoyancy and 40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear (with ample low-level hodograph curvature) will support the maintenance and or slight intensification of these storms over the next hour or so. Large hail (up to around 2-2.5 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary concerns. With time, gradual upscale growth and a strengthening/consolidating cold pool may favor more severe wind. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 31549891 31979859 32609799 32689761 32639724 32429707 31839716 31439744 31189791 31179847 31349884 31549891 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0287 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300052Z - 300315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, with potential for hail and severe gusts, may develop across parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley this evening. The threat is expected to be too marginal for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low over far northeast Kansas, with a warm front extending across Iowa. A cold front is moving eastward across eastern Kansas. Low-level convergence is focused along and near these two boundaries, which will support convective development this evening. An instability axis is analyzed by the RAP ahead of a cold front from eastern Kansas into far southwest Iowa. Along this axis, surface dewpoints in the 55 to 60 F range are contributing MLCAPE between 1000 to 1500 J/kg, according to the RAP. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near the instability axis have effective shear between 35 and 45 knots. This may support a severe potential, with isolated severe gusts and hail as the primary threats. However, forecast soundings also have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 6.5 C/km. The poor lapse rates should keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 41229598 42089500 42619324 42589242 42359219 41809221 41089253 39399360 38899403 38689454 38669520 38809582 39249625 39839639 40469632 41229598 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289 ..WEINMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-049-083-085-093-095-097-099-113-121-133-139-143-145- 147-181-193-217-221-231-237-251-257-281-293-307-309-333-337-349- 363-367-397-399-411-425-439-451-497-300340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE BROWN COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL HOOD HUNT JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL RUNNELS SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT TOM GREEN WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289 ..WEINMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-049-083-085-093-095-097-099-113-121-133-139-143-145- 147-181-193-217-221-231-237-251-257-281-293-307-309-333-337-349- 363-367-397-399-411-425-439-451-497-300340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE BROWN COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL HOOD HUNT JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL RUNNELS SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT TOM GREEN WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289 ..WEINMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-049-083-085-093-095-097-099-113-121-133-139-143-145- 147-181-193-217-221-231-237-251-257-281-293-307-309-333-337-349- 363-367-397-399-411-425-439-451-497-300340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE BROWN COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL HOOD HUNT JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL RUNNELS SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT TOM GREEN WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0286 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 292340Z - 300215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat, with a potential for large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes, is expected to develop across parts of Oklahoma and southeast Kansas over the next couple of hours. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a low in far southwestern Oklahoma, with a cold front located in western and northern Oklahoma. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is present with surface dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s F. Over the last hour, low-level convergence has markedly increased along the front. In addition, a shortwave is analyzed by the RAP over the southern High Plains. As this feature approaches early this evening, large-scale ascent will increase. This, along with the increasing low-level convergence, will provide support for thunderstorm development along the front from western Oklahoma into south-central and southeastern Kansas. Convective initiation is likely between 00Z and 01Z, with coverage gradually expanding across the moist airmass in central Oklahoma. Within this corridor, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter, with the hail threat maximized from western Oklahoma into north-central Oklahoma. Organized storms will also likely have a wind-damage threat. As the supercells move eastward into a developing low-level jet later this evening, a tornado threat will also be likely. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36649837 35529932 34889954 34439942 34189886 34139824 34469758 35989669 36429620 37079548 37509489 37889456 38379470 38689534 38069679 37379764 36649837 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-021-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-047- 049-051-063-067-069-071-073-081-083-085-087-091-093-095-097-099- 101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137- 143-145-147-300240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-021-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-047- 049-051-063-067-069-071-073-081-083-085-087-091-093-095-097-099- 101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137- 143-145-147-300240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON Read more

MD 0285 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Portions of north and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292335Z - 300130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase in coverage over the next few hours. Primary concerns are large hail and severe winds gusts. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a north/south-oriented dryline extending across portions of north and central Texas, where isolated thunderstorms are evolving. These initial high-based/isolated storms will be capable of producing large hail and locally severe gusts, given steep deep-layer lapse rates and around 40 kt of effective shear -- characterized by a mostly straight hodograph. With time, deep-layer ascent accompanying the left exit region of an upper jet streak will overspread the dryline, favoring increasing thunderstorm development into this evening. Large hail will still be a concern, though a tendency for upscale growth into a cluster of storms will favor an increasing severe-wind risk as well. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch issuance. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31729924 32589870 33259853 33729824 33959782 33959734 33819673 33499644 32889652 32109704 31039810 30719877 30679931 31019983 31269976 31729924 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more