Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent high-res guidance. In general, ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that widespread elevated conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and much of NM, but the potential for widespread/persistent critical conditions remains limited. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Continued, largely zonal, mid-level flow is expected across the central and western US D2/Thursday. Several embedded perturbations are forecast to move over the Rockies, enhancing lee troughing and surface winds over the Southwest. Continued warm/dry conditions, bolstered by increasing winds, should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances and strong westerly flow aloft traverse the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing will encourage westerly downslope winds of 15-25 mph off the central/southern Rockies over much of AZ and NM. Continued dry and warm conditions, aided by deep mixing, will keep humidity below 15% over much of the area. With several days of drying, fuels will likely continue to become more receptive to fire spread. Recent model guidance has trended windier and drier across much of the Southwest. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low, given the more limited overlap of the stronger winds, low humidity and more receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... General, broad mid/upper ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes is likely to be maintained, and a prominent influence across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic latitudes, of the eastern Pacific. To the east of the Pacific ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded smaller scale perturbations, will linger across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. This is likely to support deepening surface troughing, and perhaps cyclogenesis, to the lee of the Rockies. However, there remains substantive spread concerning this, as models continue to struggle with their varying ability to account for the seasonably cold air now entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Some erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of this air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to westerly return flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic. However, it appears that associated moisture emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for ascent and warm, capping layers aloft. Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of the Northwest into northern Great Plains. However, based on latest forecast soundings, it remains unclear whether associated boundary-layer based and/or elevated convective development will become capable of producing more than very transient/isolated lightning. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... General, broad mid/upper ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes is likely to be maintained, and a prominent influence across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic latitudes, of the eastern Pacific. To the east of the Pacific ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded smaller scale perturbations, will linger across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. This is likely to support deepening surface troughing, and perhaps cyclogenesis, to the lee of the Rockies. However, there remains substantive spread concerning this, as models continue to struggle with their varying ability to account for the seasonably cold air now entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Some erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of this air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to westerly return flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic. However, it appears that associated moisture emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for ascent and warm, capping layers aloft. Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of the Northwest into northern Great Plains. However, based on latest forecast soundings, it remains unclear whether associated boundary-layer based and/or elevated convective development will become capable of producing more than very transient/isolated lightning. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... General, broad mid/upper ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes is likely to be maintained, and a prominent influence across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic latitudes, of the eastern Pacific. To the east of the Pacific ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded smaller scale perturbations, will linger across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. This is likely to support deepening surface troughing, and perhaps cyclogenesis, to the lee of the Rockies. However, there remains substantive spread concerning this, as models continue to struggle with their varying ability to account for the seasonably cold air now entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Some erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of this air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to westerly return flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic. However, it appears that associated moisture emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for ascent and warm, capping layers aloft. Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of the Northwest into northern Great Plains. However, based on latest forecast soundings, it remains unclear whether associated boundary-layer based and/or elevated convective development will become capable of producing more than very transient/isolated lightning. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... General, broad mid/upper ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes is likely to be maintained, and a prominent influence across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic latitudes, of the eastern Pacific. To the east of the Pacific ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded smaller scale perturbations, will linger across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. This is likely to support deepening surface troughing, and perhaps cyclogenesis, to the lee of the Rockies. However, there remains substantive spread concerning this, as models continue to struggle with their varying ability to account for the seasonably cold air now entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Some erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of this air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to westerly return flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic. However, it appears that associated moisture emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for ascent and warm, capping layers aloft. Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of the Northwest into northern Great Plains. However, based on latest forecast soundings, it remains unclear whether associated boundary-layer based and/or elevated convective development will become capable of producing more than very transient/isolated lightning. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... General, broad mid/upper ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes is likely to be maintained, and a prominent influence across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic latitudes, of the eastern Pacific. To the east of the Pacific ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded smaller scale perturbations, will linger across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. This is likely to support deepening surface troughing, and perhaps cyclogenesis, to the lee of the Rockies. However, there remains substantive spread concerning this, as models continue to struggle with their varying ability to account for the seasonably cold air now entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Some erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of this air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to westerly return flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic. However, it appears that associated moisture emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for ascent and warm, capping layers aloft. Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of the Northwest into northern Great Plains. However, based on latest forecast soundings, it remains unclear whether associated boundary-layer based and/or elevated convective development will become capable of producing more than very transient/isolated lightning. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... General, broad mid/upper ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes is likely to be maintained, and a prominent influence across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic latitudes, of the eastern Pacific. To the east of the Pacific ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded smaller scale perturbations, will linger across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. This is likely to support deepening surface troughing, and perhaps cyclogenesis, to the lee of the Rockies. However, there remains substantive spread concerning this, as models continue to struggle with their varying ability to account for the seasonably cold air now entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Some erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of this air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to westerly return flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic. However, it appears that associated moisture emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for ascent and warm, capping layers aloft. Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of the Northwest into northern Great Plains. However, based on latest forecast soundings, it remains unclear whether associated boundary-layer based and/or elevated convective development will become capable of producing more than very transient/isolated lightning. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... General, broad mid/upper ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes is likely to be maintained, and a prominent influence across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic latitudes, of the eastern Pacific. To the east of the Pacific ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded smaller scale perturbations, will linger across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. This is likely to support deepening surface troughing, and perhaps cyclogenesis, to the lee of the Rockies. However, there remains substantive spread concerning this, as models continue to struggle with their varying ability to account for the seasonably cold air now entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Some erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of this air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to westerly return flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic. However, it appears that associated moisture emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for ascent and warm, capping layers aloft. Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of the Northwest into northern Great Plains. However, based on latest forecast soundings, it remains unclear whether associated boundary-layer based and/or elevated convective development will become capable of producing more than very transient/isolated lightning. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for scattered potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail may impact parts of southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia and West Virginia early Thursday. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific will be maintained through this period, although it appears that an embedded mid-level high to the southeast of the Aleutians is in the process of weakening. As this proceeds, the downstream mid-level low, currently offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is also forecast to weaken, and a more significant upstream perturbation may begin to migrate inland across Oregon/northern California coastal areas by late Thursday night. Downstream, it appears that broad mid-level ridging will build across the northern Rockies and Great Plains, eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, to the north of broad ridging centered over the subtropical western Atlantic through northern Mexico, and in the wake of a significant mid-level trough accelerating across and east of the Great Lakes through Canadian Maritimes. The latter feature may be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley, and/or across the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the period, but models vary concerning this. However, it does appear that the leading edge of a slowly modifying surface cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies will advance through the Mid Atlantic and south of the Ohio Valley, while remaining generally stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains. At the same time, a return flow of moisture may continue across the western Gulf Basin through the northwestern Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi Valley and middle/southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath relatively warm layers at mid/upper levels, potential instability is likely to remain weak, and capped, except in a corridor near the southward advancing front, from parts of the Ozark Plateau/Mid South into the Alleghenies and east of the Blue Ridge, where scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night. ...Mid South into Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau... In response to a short wave perturbation, consolidating with the larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into/through the Great Lakes late tonight into early Thursday, lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast to undergo considerable intensification across and east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. It appears that this will include strengthening to 50-70+ kt within a southwesterly to westerly regime in the 850-500 mb layer, across a narrow destabilizing pre-frontal corridor across southeastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of surrounding states by 12Z Thursday. However, where large-scale ascent is able to overcome mid-level inhibition and support thunderstorm development, RAP and NAM forecast soundings exhibit mid-level lapse rates supportive of only weak CAPE, which probably will remain rooted above a saturated near- surface layer characterized by moist adiabatic to more stable lapse rates. While this is generally expected to minimize the risk for severe weather, small hail might not be out of the question in stronger storms, and it is possible that latent cooling associated with melting might enhance downdrafts sufficiently to aid the downward transfer of stronger momentum to the surface. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2025 Read more