Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KY TO FAR NORTHERN TN... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadic storms, along with isolated damaging winds and large hail, will be possible overnight into early morning Thursday across parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. ...KY/TN... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Mid/Lower MO Valley will progress east across parts of the Midwest tonight. Strong tropospheric flow attendant to this wave will overspread the northern periphery of a warm-moist sector advancing north from the TN Valley. This will induce weak cyclogenesis overnight within the pronounced baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection will strengthen later this evening, with mainly elevated convection occurring north-northeast of the surface front. Still, some potential will exist for near surface-based storms across the baroclinic zone, along with a couple supercells. A separate band of broken convection may form in the early morning as a cold front emerges near the developing surface cyclone. Enlarged low-level hodographs, coupled with pronounced elongation in the mid/upper levels, could foster a couple sustained surface-based supercells within this regime across parts of southern to central KY and far northern TN. The categorical risk has been increased to a level 2-SLGT for the overnight/early-morning tornado potential. ..Grams.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KY TO FAR NORTHERN TN... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadic storms, along with isolated damaging winds and large hail, will be possible overnight into early morning Thursday across parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. ...KY/TN... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Mid/Lower MO Valley will progress east across parts of the Midwest tonight. Strong tropospheric flow attendant to this wave will overspread the northern periphery of a warm-moist sector advancing north from the TN Valley. This will induce weak cyclogenesis overnight within the pronounced baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection will strengthen later this evening, with mainly elevated convection occurring north-northeast of the surface front. Still, some potential will exist for near surface-based storms across the baroclinic zone, along with a couple supercells. A separate band of broken convection may form in the early morning as a cold front emerges near the developing surface cyclone. Enlarged low-level hodographs, coupled with pronounced elongation in the mid/upper levels, could foster a couple sustained surface-based supercells within this regime across parts of southern to central KY and far northern TN. The categorical risk has been increased to a level 2-SLGT for the overnight/early-morning tornado potential. ..Grams.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KY TO FAR NORTHERN TN... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadic storms, along with isolated damaging winds and large hail, will be possible overnight into early morning Thursday across parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. ...KY/TN... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Mid/Lower MO Valley will progress east across parts of the Midwest tonight. Strong tropospheric flow attendant to this wave will overspread the northern periphery of a warm-moist sector advancing north from the TN Valley. This will induce weak cyclogenesis overnight within the pronounced baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection will strengthen later this evening, with mainly elevated convection occurring north-northeast of the surface front. Still, some potential will exist for near surface-based storms across the baroclinic zone, along with a couple supercells. A separate band of broken convection may form in the early morning as a cold front emerges near the developing surface cyclone. Enlarged low-level hodographs, coupled with pronounced elongation in the mid/upper levels, could foster a couple sustained surface-based supercells within this regime across parts of southern to central KY and far northern TN. The categorical risk has been increased to a level 2-SLGT for the overnight/early-morning tornado potential. ..Grams.. 02/06/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 5 22:31:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 5 22:31:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern High Plains though the extended period, though confidence in fire weather potential diminishes beyond this weekend. Long-range ensemble solutions show reasonably good agreement in a shift from a ridge-dominated upper-level regime to a more progressive regime by early next week. This transition will feature several low-amplitude upper troughs propagating across the CONUS, each with attendant chances for precipitation. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest that most regions will see at least some accumulating rain/snow potential through the middle of next week with the exception of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent fuel drying across these regions will likely be exacerbated by the limited rain/snowfall potential through next week. Breezy conditions may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains each day as lee troughing develops with the passage of upper disturbances over the central Rockies. D3/Friday continues to see the best signal for 20+ mph winds per GEFS/ECENS probabilities with weaker signals noted over the weekend and into early next week - likely the result of a cold frontal intrusion that is expected on D4/Sat into D5/Sun. The dry air mass already in place across the southern High Plains will likely remain entrenched over the region and foster daily RH reductions into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable on D3/Friday, though more localized/transient concerns may emerge across southern NM and far west TX over the weekend and into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern High Plains though the extended period, though confidence in fire weather potential diminishes beyond this weekend. Long-range ensemble solutions show reasonably good agreement in a shift from a ridge-dominated upper-level regime to a more progressive regime by early next week. This transition will feature several low-amplitude upper troughs propagating across the CONUS, each with attendant chances for precipitation. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest that most regions will see at least some accumulating rain/snow potential through the middle of next week with the exception of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent fuel drying across these regions will likely be exacerbated by the limited rain/snowfall potential through next week. Breezy conditions may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains each day as lee troughing develops with the passage of upper disturbances over the central Rockies. D3/Friday continues to see the best signal for 20+ mph winds per GEFS/ECENS probabilities with weaker signals noted over the weekend and into early next week - likely the result of a cold frontal intrusion that is expected on D4/Sat into D5/Sun. The dry air mass already in place across the southern High Plains will likely remain entrenched over the region and foster daily RH reductions into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable on D3/Friday, though more localized/transient concerns may emerge across southern NM and far west TX over the weekend and into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern High Plains though the extended period, though confidence in fire weather potential diminishes beyond this weekend. Long-range ensemble solutions show reasonably good agreement in a shift from a ridge-dominated upper-level regime to a more progressive regime by early next week. This transition will feature several low-amplitude upper troughs propagating across the CONUS, each with attendant chances for precipitation. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest that most regions will see at least some accumulating rain/snow potential through the middle of next week with the exception of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent fuel drying across these regions will likely be exacerbated by the limited rain/snowfall potential through next week. Breezy conditions may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains each day as lee troughing develops with the passage of upper disturbances over the central Rockies. D3/Friday continues to see the best signal for 20+ mph winds per GEFS/ECENS probabilities with weaker signals noted over the weekend and into early next week - likely the result of a cold frontal intrusion that is expected on D4/Sat into D5/Sun. The dry air mass already in place across the southern High Plains will likely remain entrenched over the region and foster daily RH reductions into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable on D3/Friday, though more localized/transient concerns may emerge across southern NM and far west TX over the weekend and into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern High Plains though the extended period, though confidence in fire weather potential diminishes beyond this weekend. Long-range ensemble solutions show reasonably good agreement in a shift from a ridge-dominated upper-level regime to a more progressive regime by early next week. This transition will feature several low-amplitude upper troughs propagating across the CONUS, each with attendant chances for precipitation. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest that most regions will see at least some accumulating rain/snow potential through the middle of next week with the exception of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent fuel drying across these regions will likely be exacerbated by the limited rain/snowfall potential through next week. Breezy conditions may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains each day as lee troughing develops with the passage of upper disturbances over the central Rockies. D3/Friday continues to see the best signal for 20+ mph winds per GEFS/ECENS probabilities with weaker signals noted over the weekend and into early next week - likely the result of a cold frontal intrusion that is expected on D4/Sat into D5/Sun. The dry air mass already in place across the southern High Plains will likely remain entrenched over the region and foster daily RH reductions into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable on D3/Friday, though more localized/transient concerns may emerge across southern NM and far west TX over the weekend and into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern High Plains though the extended period, though confidence in fire weather potential diminishes beyond this weekend. Long-range ensemble solutions show reasonably good agreement in a shift from a ridge-dominated upper-level regime to a more progressive regime by early next week. This transition will feature several low-amplitude upper troughs propagating across the CONUS, each with attendant chances for precipitation. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest that most regions will see at least some accumulating rain/snow potential through the middle of next week with the exception of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent fuel drying across these regions will likely be exacerbated by the limited rain/snowfall potential through next week. Breezy conditions may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains each day as lee troughing develops with the passage of upper disturbances over the central Rockies. D3/Friday continues to see the best signal for 20+ mph winds per GEFS/ECENS probabilities with weaker signals noted over the weekend and into early next week - likely the result of a cold frontal intrusion that is expected on D4/Sat into D5/Sun. The dry air mass already in place across the southern High Plains will likely remain entrenched over the region and foster daily RH reductions into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable on D3/Friday, though more localized/transient concerns may emerge across southern NM and far west TX over the weekend and into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...20z Update... The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made to the overall categorical outlook. A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...20z Update... The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made to the overall categorical outlook. A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...20z Update... The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made to the overall categorical outlook. A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible tonight from Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West Virginia. ...20z Update... The 2% tornado risk was expanded eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with this update, with no changes made to the overall categorical outlook. A conditional tornado risk is possible overnight but remains largely dependent on ability for a surface based storm to occur near the lifting warm front. Given the relatively narrow corridor of favorable surface based instability and favorable low-level lapse rates, confidence is low in increasing tornado probabilities at this time. The main threats will remain damaging wind and hail. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...OH/TN Valleys Tonight... A shortwave trough currently over the central Rockies will track across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley tonight. A transient low-level jet feature will accompany the shortwave and strengthen as it spreads into the OH/TN Valleys after dark. Low-level moisture will slowly increase through the day, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading northward across TN into KY. This will lead to a zone of weak CAPE (500-800 J/kg) from west TN into eastern KY. 12z Model guidance indicates the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms in this region during the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that some of the storms could become surface-based with a marginal concern for damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to pose some risk of hail if a robust updraft can become established. Read more