Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more