Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... A very active early season severe risk is expected regionally today. A seasonally strong upper low over the coastal Pacific Northwest will shift eastward today, highlighted by a 100+ kt mid-level speed max that will overspread coastal areas by evening. Strong height falls will similarly spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Low-level mean-mixing ratios are notably high, as compared to typical daily climatological values (highest 5-10%), this morning based on 12z observed soundings from Salem and Medford, Oregon. Large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a further moistening of profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Cold mid-level temperatures and a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will also notably overspread the region. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should reach/exceed 1000 J/kg coincident with a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Isolated to scattered robust convection seems likely to develop by 21-22z across western Oregon, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and develop north-northeastward ahead of the approaching speed max, with profiles favoring supercell development. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large hailstones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with a few of the most intense storms. Some tornado risk will also exist, particularly where low-level winds maintain at least a modest easterly component. Damaging winds may also occur. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. A weak disturbance will approach the international border through mid day, and this will draw a substantial moisture plume across South Texas. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, especially with northward extent, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds and/or hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection is expected across this region which may tend to disrupt and limit organizational potential. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... A very active early season severe risk is expected regionally today. A seasonally strong upper low over the coastal Pacific Northwest will shift eastward today, highlighted by a 100+ kt mid-level speed max that will overspread coastal areas by evening. Strong height falls will similarly spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Low-level mean-mixing ratios are notably high, as compared to typical daily climatological values (highest 5-10%), this morning based on 12z observed soundings from Salem and Medford, Oregon. Large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a further moistening of profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Cold mid-level temperatures and a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will also notably overspread the region. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should reach/exceed 1000 J/kg coincident with a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Isolated to scattered robust convection seems likely to develop by 21-22z across western Oregon, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and develop north-northeastward ahead of the approaching speed max, with profiles favoring supercell development. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large hailstones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with a few of the most intense storms. Some tornado risk will also exist, particularly where low-level winds maintain at least a modest easterly component. Damaging winds may also occur. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. A weak disturbance will approach the international border through mid day, and this will draw a substantial moisture plume across South Texas. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, especially with northward extent, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds and/or hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection is expected across this region which may tend to disrupt and limit organizational potential. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... A very active early season severe risk is expected regionally today. A seasonally strong upper low over the coastal Pacific Northwest will shift eastward today, highlighted by a 100+ kt mid-level speed max that will overspread coastal areas by evening. Strong height falls will similarly spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Low-level mean-mixing ratios are notably high, as compared to typical daily climatological values (highest 5-10%), this morning based on 12z observed soundings from Salem and Medford, Oregon. Large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a further moistening of profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Cold mid-level temperatures and a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will also notably overspread the region. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should reach/exceed 1000 J/kg coincident with a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Isolated to scattered robust convection seems likely to develop by 21-22z across western Oregon, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and develop north-northeastward ahead of the approaching speed max, with profiles favoring supercell development. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large hailstones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with a few of the most intense storms. Some tornado risk will also exist, particularly where low-level winds maintain at least a modest easterly component. Damaging winds may also occur. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. A weak disturbance will approach the international border through mid day, and this will draw a substantial moisture plume across South Texas. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, especially with northward extent, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds and/or hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection is expected across this region which may tend to disrupt and limit organizational potential. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/26/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through Day 6 (Monday March 31), with respect to synoptic-scale features. Divergence in solutions increases thereafter, particularly with the strength/progression of the next trough moving across the western CONUS and into the Plains. As such, no risk areas will be considered beyond Day 6/Monday. Day 4/Saturday, a couple of small-scale vorticity maxima/short-wave troughs are forecast to cross the central portion of the country, ahead of the stronger system advancing across the West. This feature is forecast to reach the High Plains overnight, as a surface low moves across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity. Models continue to indicate that capping will remain an issue, hindering convective development in the warm sector ahead of the low (across the Kansas/Oklahoma/western Missouri/western Arkansas area) at least until after dark/overnight. While some severe threat may evolve with storms which should be slightly elevated for the most part, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 15% risk area. Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of the developing low -- and associated cold front. Nonetheless, substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will support scattered thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared environment. By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are expected, accompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms should spread southeast of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing severe risk. Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface cold front advances. Destabilization ahead of the front will support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts late in the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through Day 6 (Monday March 31), with respect to synoptic-scale features. Divergence in solutions increases thereafter, particularly with the strength/progression of the next trough moving across the western CONUS and into the Plains. As such, no risk areas will be considered beyond Day 6/Monday. Day 4/Saturday, a couple of small-scale vorticity maxima/short-wave troughs are forecast to cross the central portion of the country, ahead of the stronger system advancing across the West. This feature is forecast to reach the High Plains overnight, as a surface low moves across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity. Models continue to indicate that capping will remain an issue, hindering convective development in the warm sector ahead of the low (across the Kansas/Oklahoma/western Missouri/western Arkansas area) at least until after dark/overnight. While some severe threat may evolve with storms which should be slightly elevated for the most part, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 15% risk area. Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of the developing low -- and associated cold front. Nonetheless, substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will support scattered thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared environment. By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are expected, accompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms should spread southeast of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing severe risk. Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface cold front advances. Destabilization ahead of the front will support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts late in the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through Day 6 (Monday March 31), with respect to synoptic-scale features. Divergence in solutions increases thereafter, particularly with the strength/progression of the next trough moving across the western CONUS and into the Plains. As such, no risk areas will be considered beyond Day 6/Monday. Day 4/Saturday, a couple of small-scale vorticity maxima/short-wave troughs are forecast to cross the central portion of the country, ahead of the stronger system advancing across the West. This feature is forecast to reach the High Plains overnight, as a surface low moves across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity. Models continue to indicate that capping will remain an issue, hindering convective development in the warm sector ahead of the low (across the Kansas/Oklahoma/western Missouri/western Arkansas area) at least until after dark/overnight. While some severe threat may evolve with storms which should be slightly elevated for the most part, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 15% risk area. Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of the developing low -- and associated cold front. Nonetheless, substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will support scattered thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared environment. By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are expected, accompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms should spread southeast of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing severe risk. Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface cold front advances. Destabilization ahead of the front will support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts late in the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through Day 6 (Monday March 31), with respect to synoptic-scale features. Divergence in solutions increases thereafter, particularly with the strength/progression of the next trough moving across the western CONUS and into the Plains. As such, no risk areas will be considered beyond Day 6/Monday. Day 4/Saturday, a couple of small-scale vorticity maxima/short-wave troughs are forecast to cross the central portion of the country, ahead of the stronger system advancing across the West. This feature is forecast to reach the High Plains overnight, as a surface low moves across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity. Models continue to indicate that capping will remain an issue, hindering convective development in the warm sector ahead of the low (across the Kansas/Oklahoma/western Missouri/western Arkansas area) at least until after dark/overnight. While some severe threat may evolve with storms which should be slightly elevated for the most part, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 15% risk area. Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of the developing low -- and associated cold front. Nonetheless, substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will support scattered thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared environment. By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are expected, accompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms should spread southeast of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing severe risk. Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface cold front advances. Destabilization ahead of the front will support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts late in the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through Day 6 (Monday March 31), with respect to synoptic-scale features. Divergence in solutions increases thereafter, particularly with the strength/progression of the next trough moving across the western CONUS and into the Plains. As such, no risk areas will be considered beyond Day 6/Monday. Day 4/Saturday, a couple of small-scale vorticity maxima/short-wave troughs are forecast to cross the central portion of the country, ahead of the stronger system advancing across the West. This feature is forecast to reach the High Plains overnight, as a surface low moves across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity. Models continue to indicate that capping will remain an issue, hindering convective development in the warm sector ahead of the low (across the Kansas/Oklahoma/western Missouri/western Arkansas area) at least until after dark/overnight. While some severe threat may evolve with storms which should be slightly elevated for the most part, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 15% risk area. Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of the developing low -- and associated cold front. Nonetheless, substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will support scattered thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared environment. By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are expected, accompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms should spread southeast of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing severe risk. Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface cold front advances. Destabilization ahead of the front will support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts late in the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through Day 6 (Monday March 31), with respect to synoptic-scale features. Divergence in solutions increases thereafter, particularly with the strength/progression of the next trough moving across the western CONUS and into the Plains. As such, no risk areas will be considered beyond Day 6/Monday. Day 4/Saturday, a couple of small-scale vorticity maxima/short-wave troughs are forecast to cross the central portion of the country, ahead of the stronger system advancing across the West. This feature is forecast to reach the High Plains overnight, as a surface low moves across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity. Models continue to indicate that capping will remain an issue, hindering convective development in the warm sector ahead of the low (across the Kansas/Oklahoma/western Missouri/western Arkansas area) at least until after dark/overnight. While some severe threat may evolve with storms which should be slightly elevated for the most part, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 15% risk area. Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of the developing low -- and associated cold front. Nonetheless, substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will support scattered thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared environment. By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are expected, accompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms should spread southeast of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing severe risk. Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface cold front advances. Destabilization ahead of the front will support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts late in the period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more