Severe Storms

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC017-057-095-240340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA MONROE TNC055-240340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC017-057-095-240340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA MONROE TNC055-240340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 60 TORNADO AR KY MO MS TN 232015Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 60 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Southwest Kentucky Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon over eastern Arkansas and spread eastward across the watch area through the evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern with these storms. However, sufficient low level shear will pose some risk of a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Memphis TN to 45 miles southeast of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SAT TO 40 NW BAZ TO 25 W AUS TO 25 SW TPL TO 30 S CRS TO 35 SW TYR TO 10 SSW TYR TO 20 NW GGG. ..JEWELL..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-019-021-027-029-041-051-055-091-145-161-185-187-209-225- 259-287-289-293-313-331-395-453-455-471-477-491-240340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BANDERA BASTROP BELL BEXAR BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COMAL FALLS FREESTONE GRIMES GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON KENDALL LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM ROBERTSON TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SAT TO 40 NW BAZ TO 25 W AUS TO 25 SW TPL TO 30 S CRS TO 35 SW TYR TO 10 SSW TYR TO 20 NW GGG. ..JEWELL..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-019-021-027-029-041-051-055-091-145-161-185-187-209-225- 259-287-289-293-313-331-395-453-455-471-477-491-240340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BANDERA BASTROP BELL BEXAR BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COMAL FALLS FREESTONE GRIMES GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON KENDALL LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM ROBERTSON TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GLH TO 35 E TUP TO 40 SW HSV. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC057-075-093-107-127-133-240340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE LAMAR MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC017-240340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GLH TO 35 E TUP TO 40 SW HSV. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC057-075-093-107-127-133-240340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE LAMAR MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC017-240340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GLH TO 35 E TUP TO 40 SW HSV. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC057-075-093-107-127-133-240340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE LAMAR MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC017-240340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GLH TO 35 E TUP TO 40 SW HSV. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC057-075-093-107-127-133-240340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE LAMAR MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC017-240340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GLH TO 35 E TUP TO 40 SW HSV. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC057-075-093-107-127-133-240340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE LAMAR MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC017-240340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 61 SEVERE TSTM AL AR LA MS 232205Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter are expected to develop and spread eastward through the evening. Damaging winds up to 60-70 mph may also occur, especially if convection can develop into a line. A tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 30 miles east southeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW TYR TO 15 E TYR TO GGG TO 15 WSW SHV TO 5 NE SHV TO 35 NE SHV TO 10 SW ELD TO 30 SSW LLQ TO 25 W GLH. ..JEWELL..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC139-240340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111- 119-127-240340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC005-073-183-203-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-240340- Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258 ..JEWELL..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-019-021-027-029-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-171- 185-187-209-213-225-259-265-281-287-289-293-299-309-313-331-349- 395-453-455-471-477-491-240240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BANDERA BASTROP BELL BEXAR BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GILLESPIE GRIMES GUADALUPE HAYS HENDERSON HOUSTON KENDALL KERR LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE LLANO MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW GWO TO 30 ENE TUP TO 15 NE MSL. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-093-107-127-133-240240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC003-017-240240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW JBR TO 20 E DYR TO 25 WSW BWG. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC035-037-077-107-123-240240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS KYC219-240240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TODD MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119- 135-137-139-141-143-145-161-240240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO Read more

MD 0257 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 60... FOR MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 0257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Areas affected...Mid-South Concerning...Tornado Watch 60... Valid 232357Z - 240130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues. SUMMARY...A concentrated corridor of supercells is expected across portions of the Mid-South this evening. DISCUSSION...LLJ is shifting southeast early this evening along the southern fringe of a trough that is shifting towards the lower Ohio Valley. Large-scale synoptic front is expected to advance across western KY/TN/eastern AR, but pre-frontal confluence appears to be aiding scattered-numerous robust updrafts, including supercells, along a corridor from southeast AR-northern MS-northwest AL. Most of the longer-lived updrafts are producing hail and this should continue into the mid-evening hours. Additionally, forecast soundings suggest some tornado risk where dew points have risen into the lower 60s, as SBCAPE in this environment is fairly substantial within a strongly sheared environment. With time this corridor is expected to gradually sag southeast. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33329217 34059008 35018743 34308716 32779056 33329217 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more