Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 23 20:08:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more