Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Minor expansions were made to the Elevated area into the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern Wyoming, and across portions of the southern High Plains, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. In addition, downsloping westerly winds along the Colorado front range will likely produce a few localized areas of elevated fire-weather conditions amid receptive fuels (ERCs 80%-90%). Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Minor expansions were made to the Elevated area into the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern Wyoming, and across portions of the southern High Plains, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. In addition, downsloping westerly winds along the Colorado front range will likely produce a few localized areas of elevated fire-weather conditions amid receptive fuels (ERCs 80%-90%). Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more