Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to advance slowly eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday, while ridging expands over the West. At the surface, a weakening occluded low will move from the Upper Great Lakes eastward to southern Quebec through the period. A trailing cold front will initially stretch from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians, and then westward across the Gulf Coast States to Texas. The front will move offshore into the western Atlantic through the day, while sagging southward toward the Gulf Coast -- where it should then linger through the end of the period. ...Southern Louisiana to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and south of the advancing cold front. Some severe risk (mainly hail/wind) may accompany a couple of the stronger storms during the morning, near the Gulf Coast region. Depending upon convective coverage/evolution through late morning, any pre-frontal heating/destabilization could support redevelopment/reintensification of frontal convection, with a secondary peak in severe potential possible in this scenario. Still, overall risk does not appear to warrant SLGT risk upgrade at this time. Storms should weaken into the evening, while also shifting gradually southward/offshore. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to advance slowly eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday, while ridging expands over the West. At the surface, a weakening occluded low will move from the Upper Great Lakes eastward to southern Quebec through the period. A trailing cold front will initially stretch from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians, and then westward across the Gulf Coast States to Texas. The front will move offshore into the western Atlantic through the day, while sagging southward toward the Gulf Coast -- where it should then linger through the end of the period. ...Southern Louisiana to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and south of the advancing cold front. Some severe risk (mainly hail/wind) may accompany a couple of the stronger storms during the morning, near the Gulf Coast region. Depending upon convective coverage/evolution through late morning, any pre-frontal heating/destabilization could support redevelopment/reintensification of frontal convection, with a secondary peak in severe potential possible in this scenario. Still, overall risk does not appear to warrant SLGT risk upgrade at this time. Storms should weaken into the evening, while also shifting gradually southward/offshore. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to advance slowly eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday, while ridging expands over the West. At the surface, a weakening occluded low will move from the Upper Great Lakes eastward to southern Quebec through the period. A trailing cold front will initially stretch from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians, and then westward across the Gulf Coast States to Texas. The front will move offshore into the western Atlantic through the day, while sagging southward toward the Gulf Coast -- where it should then linger through the end of the period. ...Southern Louisiana to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and south of the advancing cold front. Some severe risk (mainly hail/wind) may accompany a couple of the stronger storms during the morning, near the Gulf Coast region. Depending upon convective coverage/evolution through late morning, any pre-frontal heating/destabilization could support redevelopment/reintensification of frontal convection, with a secondary peak in severe potential possible in this scenario. Still, overall risk does not appear to warrant SLGT risk upgrade at this time. Storms should weaken into the evening, while also shifting gradually southward/offshore. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to advance slowly eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday, while ridging expands over the West. At the surface, a weakening occluded low will move from the Upper Great Lakes eastward to southern Quebec through the period. A trailing cold front will initially stretch from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians, and then westward across the Gulf Coast States to Texas. The front will move offshore into the western Atlantic through the day, while sagging southward toward the Gulf Coast -- where it should then linger through the end of the period. ...Southern Louisiana to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and south of the advancing cold front. Some severe risk (mainly hail/wind) may accompany a couple of the stronger storms during the morning, near the Gulf Coast region. Depending upon convective coverage/evolution through late morning, any pre-frontal heating/destabilization could support redevelopment/reintensification of frontal convection, with a secondary peak in severe potential possible in this scenario. Still, overall risk does not appear to warrant SLGT risk upgrade at this time. Storms should weaken into the evening, while also shifting gradually southward/offshore. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

MD 0253 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR OZARK PLATEAU REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Areas affected...Ozark Plateau Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 230327Z - 230530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail may accompany storms across the Ozark Plateau the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Weak, low-amplitude short-wave trough is approaching southeast KS late this evening. Partly in response to this feature, LLJ is strengthening across central OK into southwest MO. VAD profile from INX/SGF both exhibit intense 0-3 SRH and low-level warm advection will focus ascent across the Ozark Plateau over the next several hours. While moisture is advancing northeast in conjunction with this LLJ, 00z sounding from OUN depicted only 0.82 PW; however, 0-6km lapse rates are very steep and this will aid buoyancy as moisture surges into southern MO. Over the last hour or so, convection has begun to deepen along the nose of the LLJ, and this should continue over the next few hours. Wind profiles favor organized rotating updrafts, and a few supercells may emerge. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield the most MUCAPE, hence hail will be the primary risk with the most robust updrafts. If more organized convection develops, a severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37059501 37479415 37229268 36589248 36439336 36609474 37059501 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more