Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... As an eastern U.S. upper trough continues progressing eastward toward/across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, a second trough is progged to advance southeastward out of the northern Intermountain region into/across the northern and central Plains, and the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... As an eastern U.S. upper trough continues progressing eastward toward/across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, a second trough is progged to advance southeastward out of the northern Intermountain region into/across the northern and central Plains, and the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... As an eastern U.S. upper trough continues progressing eastward toward/across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, a second trough is progged to advance southeastward out of the northern Intermountain region into/across the northern and central Plains, and the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Synopsis... As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern Plains and mid MO Valley overnight. As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail potential. ...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity... Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast OK into extreme northwest AR. Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in the warm advection regime. ...Northern High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Synopsis... As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern Plains and mid MO Valley overnight. As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail potential. ...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity... Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast OK into extreme northwest AR. Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in the warm advection regime. ...Northern High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Synopsis... As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern Plains and mid MO Valley overnight. As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail potential. ...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity... Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast OK into extreme northwest AR. Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in the warm advection regime. ...Northern High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Synopsis... As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern Plains and mid MO Valley overnight. As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail potential. ...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity... Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast OK into extreme northwest AR. Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in the warm advection regime. ...Northern High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Synopsis... As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern Plains and mid MO Valley overnight. As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail potential. ...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity... Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast OK into extreme northwest AR. Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in the warm advection regime. ...Northern High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Synopsis... As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern Plains and mid MO Valley overnight. As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail potential. ...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity... Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast OK into extreme northwest AR. Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in the warm advection regime. ...Northern High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Synopsis... As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern Plains and mid MO Valley overnight. As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail potential. ...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity... Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast OK into extreme northwest AR. Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in the warm advection regime. ...Northern High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough now over IA will continue southeastward across the OH Valley tonight, with decreasing availability of instability. Steep lapse rates owing to daytime heating beneath the upper trough have resulted in scattered weak thunderstorms over IA and northern MO this evening, and some of this activity may persist into IL this evening. Very weak instability will preclude any severe threat. Elsewhere, similarly weak instability exists over parts of the Pacific Northwest this evening, in association with an upper jet diving into WA/OR. Isolated convection may yield a few lightning flashes as far east as western MT. ..Jewell.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough now over IA will continue southeastward across the OH Valley tonight, with decreasing availability of instability. Steep lapse rates owing to daytime heating beneath the upper trough have resulted in scattered weak thunderstorms over IA and northern MO this evening, and some of this activity may persist into IL this evening. Very weak instability will preclude any severe threat. Elsewhere, similarly weak instability exists over parts of the Pacific Northwest this evening, in association with an upper jet diving into WA/OR. Isolated convection may yield a few lightning flashes as far east as western MT. ..Jewell.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough now over IA will continue southeastward across the OH Valley tonight, with decreasing availability of instability. Steep lapse rates owing to daytime heating beneath the upper trough have resulted in scattered weak thunderstorms over IA and northern MO this evening, and some of this activity may persist into IL this evening. Very weak instability will preclude any severe threat. Elsewhere, similarly weak instability exists over parts of the Pacific Northwest this evening, in association with an upper jet diving into WA/OR. Isolated convection may yield a few lightning flashes as far east as western MT. ..Jewell.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse the Central Plains and Midwest D3/Sunday. Thereafter, the synoptic pattern will become fairly persistent with a long-wave trough encompassing the eastern half of CONUS, and ridging present over the Rockies and Southwest. ...Central and Southern Plains... A deepening surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest is expected to accompany the aforementioned shortwave trough D3/Sunday. An associated tightening pressure gradient across the Central and Northern Great Plains will support breezy west-northwest surface winds there, while a cold front dives south in the lee of the Rockies into the Southern Plains. Although RH will likely remain just above critical thresholds within a cooler air mass, these areas continue to remain unseasonably dry with receptive fuels for fire ignition and spread present. Therefore, two low probability areas for critical fire weather conditions have been introduced from western NE/northern KS, and western OK/northwestern TX. By D4/Monday a surface high over the Missouri River Valley will migrate slowly southward, shunting low-level moisture to the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, lee troughing will commence across the High Plains with accompanying southerly surface winds developing within dry antecedent conditions over western OK. A 40% area has been introduced here for D4/Monday, as projected ERC percentile estimates continue to indicate receptive fuel states across this region. Another cold front will result in breezy northwest winds developing across the Central Plains (NE) D5/Tuesday, and although a cooler air mass should keep relative humidity from falling into critical limits, deteriorating fuel conditions are anticipated given a lack of rainfall. After early next week, rainfall probabilities will begin to increase across most of the CONUS along frontal boundaries and in association with a southern stream Pacific shortwave trough entering the Southern Plains. This should limit the overall potential for significant fire weather concerns. ..Barnes/Williams.. 03/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 21 01:00:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 21 01:00:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms possible for a short time this evening over the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with sporadic lightning flashes over the northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently exist along the cold from over the Mid Atlantic, and remain weak due to limited instability. This front will continue to push rapidly offshore along with the parent trough. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over the northern Rockies beneath an upper wave within the northwest flow regime. However, this activity is expected to wane as well with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms possible for a short time this evening over the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with sporadic lightning flashes over the northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently exist along the cold from over the Mid Atlantic, and remain weak due to limited instability. This front will continue to push rapidly offshore along with the parent trough. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over the northern Rockies beneath an upper wave within the northwest flow regime. However, this activity is expected to wane as well with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms possible for a short time this evening over the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with sporadic lightning flashes over the northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently exist along the cold from over the Mid Atlantic, and remain weak due to limited instability. This front will continue to push rapidly offshore along with the parent trough. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over the northern Rockies beneath an upper wave within the northwest flow regime. However, this activity is expected to wane as well with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Early in the extended period D3-Saturday, a period of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern and central Plains. A few periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the central Plains as cold fronts move across the area with dry/breezy prefrontal conditions. Above normal temperatures and drying conditions will lead to drying fuels across the Southwestern US. ...D3 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D3 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, with the driest conditions across western Texas. A 70 percent delineation was added with this outlook where highest confidence in relative humidity in the single digits to teens with overlapping Critical winds will be. In addition, a 40 percent area was added to account for overlap of windy/dry conditions in the Nebraska Panhandle as increased westerly flow across the Rockies leads to downslope warming and drying across this region. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more