Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. ...Mid-MO/MS Valleys... A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection, primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies. ...Northwest... The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into the northern Rockies through late evening. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. ...Mid-MO/MS Valleys... A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection, primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies. ...Northwest... The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into the northern Rockies through late evening. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. ...Mid-MO/MS Valleys... A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection, primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies. ...Northwest... The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into the northern Rockies through late evening. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. ...Mid-MO/MS Valleys... A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection, primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies. ...Northwest... The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into the northern Rockies through late evening. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. ...Mid-MO/MS Valleys... A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection, primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies. ...Northwest... The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into the northern Rockies through late evening. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. ...Mid-MO/MS Valleys... A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection, primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies. ...Northwest... The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into the northern Rockies through late evening. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. ...Mid-MO/MS Valleys... A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection, primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies. ...Northwest... The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into the northern Rockies through late evening. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... No changes were made to the D1 Critical areas across the southern High Plains and in the southeastern Florida Peninsula. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated to extend it into eastern Colorado given recent forecast guidance indicating likely Elevated conditions. Some portion of this area did receive rain/snowfall over the last 48 hours. Consecutive afternoons of drying should allow fine fuels to dry sufficiently for potential to spread fire. An Elevated delineation was added in across coastal Texas into portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. In these regions, northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 25-35 percent. Fuels across the Texas coast are critically dry, with ERCs above the 90th percentile and near all time record dryness for March. Fuels across Louisiana/Mississippi are above average for dryness and around the 50th percentile for ERCs. Given the more marginal relative humidity overall, an Elevated delineation was appropriate to cover this risk. ..Thornton.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... No changes were made to the D1 Critical areas across the southern High Plains and in the southeastern Florida Peninsula. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated to extend it into eastern Colorado given recent forecast guidance indicating likely Elevated conditions. Some portion of this area did receive rain/snowfall over the last 48 hours. Consecutive afternoons of drying should allow fine fuels to dry sufficiently for potential to spread fire. An Elevated delineation was added in across coastal Texas into portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. In these regions, northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 25-35 percent. Fuels across the Texas coast are critically dry, with ERCs above the 90th percentile and near all time record dryness for March. Fuels across Louisiana/Mississippi are above average for dryness and around the 50th percentile for ERCs. Given the more marginal relative humidity overall, an Elevated delineation was appropriate to cover this risk. ..Thornton.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... No changes were made to the D1 Critical areas across the southern High Plains and in the southeastern Florida Peninsula. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated to extend it into eastern Colorado given recent forecast guidance indicating likely Elevated conditions. Some portion of this area did receive rain/snowfall over the last 48 hours. Consecutive afternoons of drying should allow fine fuels to dry sufficiently for potential to spread fire. An Elevated delineation was added in across coastal Texas into portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. In these regions, northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 25-35 percent. Fuels across the Texas coast are critically dry, with ERCs above the 90th percentile and near all time record dryness for March. Fuels across Louisiana/Mississippi are above average for dryness and around the 50th percentile for ERCs. Given the more marginal relative humidity overall, an Elevated delineation was appropriate to cover this risk. ..Thornton.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... No changes were made to the D1 Critical areas across the southern High Plains and in the southeastern Florida Peninsula. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated to extend it into eastern Colorado given recent forecast guidance indicating likely Elevated conditions. Some portion of this area did receive rain/snowfall over the last 48 hours. Consecutive afternoons of drying should allow fine fuels to dry sufficiently for potential to spread fire. An Elevated delineation was added in across coastal Texas into portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. In these regions, northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 25-35 percent. Fuels across the Texas coast are critically dry, with ERCs above the 90th percentile and near all time record dryness for March. Fuels across Louisiana/Mississippi are above average for dryness and around the 50th percentile for ERCs. Given the more marginal relative humidity overall, an Elevated delineation was appropriate to cover this risk. ..Thornton.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... No changes were made to the D1 Critical areas across the southern High Plains and in the southeastern Florida Peninsula. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated to extend it into eastern Colorado given recent forecast guidance indicating likely Elevated conditions. Some portion of this area did receive rain/snowfall over the last 48 hours. Consecutive afternoons of drying should allow fine fuels to dry sufficiently for potential to spread fire. An Elevated delineation was added in across coastal Texas into portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. In these regions, northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 25-35 percent. Fuels across the Texas coast are critically dry, with ERCs above the 90th percentile and near all time record dryness for March. Fuels across Louisiana/Mississippi are above average for dryness and around the 50th percentile for ERCs. Given the more marginal relative humidity overall, an Elevated delineation was appropriate to cover this risk. ..Thornton.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... No changes were made to the D1 Critical areas across the southern High Plains and in the southeastern Florida Peninsula. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated to extend it into eastern Colorado given recent forecast guidance indicating likely Elevated conditions. Some portion of this area did receive rain/snowfall over the last 48 hours. Consecutive afternoons of drying should allow fine fuels to dry sufficiently for potential to spread fire. An Elevated delineation was added in across coastal Texas into portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. In these regions, northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 25-35 percent. Fuels across the Texas coast are critically dry, with ERCs above the 90th percentile and near all time record dryness for March. Fuels across Louisiana/Mississippi are above average for dryness and around the 50th percentile for ERCs. Given the more marginal relative humidity overall, an Elevated delineation was appropriate to cover this risk. ..Thornton.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... No changes were made to the D1 Critical areas across the southern High Plains and in the southeastern Florida Peninsula. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated to extend it into eastern Colorado given recent forecast guidance indicating likely Elevated conditions. Some portion of this area did receive rain/snowfall over the last 48 hours. Consecutive afternoons of drying should allow fine fuels to dry sufficiently for potential to spread fire. An Elevated delineation was added in across coastal Texas into portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. In these regions, northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 25-35 percent. Fuels across the Texas coast are critically dry, with ERCs above the 90th percentile and near all time record dryness for March. Fuels across Louisiana/Mississippi are above average for dryness and around the 50th percentile for ERCs. Given the more marginal relative humidity overall, an Elevated delineation was appropriate to cover this risk. ..Thornton.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more