Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more