Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC035-037-077-093-107-111-123-240140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS KYC007-033-035-039-047-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-219-221- 240140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TODD TRIGG MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119- 135-137-139-141-143-145-161-240140- Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC.03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-093-107-127-133-240140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC003-017-240140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE Read more

MD 0256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Areas affected...central into eastern Texas...northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 232229Z - 240100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along the cold front from southern Arkansas southwestward toward San Antonio. Large hail is likely and localized wind damage is possible. DISCUSSION...Relatively strong instability has developed ahead of the cold front, owing to strong heating, steep lapse rates aloft and dewpoints in the 60s F. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, which will certainly support robust updrafts. Effective deep-layer shear is averaging around 40 kt over northern areas, with a bit weaker flow over parts of TX. However, as storms develop, they will likely propagate rightward off the hodograph, resulting in clusters of severe storms. Spotty reports of 2.00" hail appear likely across the region with the strongest cells. The entire threat area is expected to remain within a relatively narrow southwest-northeast zone, though a gradual southward propagation is expected. As such, much of the area is being considered for a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29179825 29089917 29389961 29789976 30099967 30299952 30789859 31289752 31949617 33579287 33459225 33059198 32379199 31969256 29179825 Read more

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-025-027-039-041-043-069-073-079-095-103-139- 240140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN MONROE OUACHITA UNION LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111- 119-127-240140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-171-185-187- 209-213-225-259-281-287-289-293-299-309-313-331-349-395-453-455- 471-477-491-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GILLESPIE GRIMES GUADALUPE HAYS HENDERSON HOUSTON KENDALL LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE LLANO MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Areas affected...central into eastern Texas...northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 232229Z - 240100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along the cold front from southern Arkansas southwestward toward San Antonio. Large hail is likely and localized wind damage is possible. DISCUSSION...Relatively strong instability has developed ahead of the cold front, owing to strong heating, steep lapse rates aloft and dewpoints in the 60s F. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, which will certainly support robust updrafts. Effective deep-layer shear is averaging around 40 kt over northern areas, with a bit weaker flow over parts of TX. However, as storms develop, they will likely propagate rightward off the hodograph, resulting in clusters of severe storms. Spotty reports of 2.00" hail appear likely across the region with the strongest cells. The entire threat area is expected to remain within a relatively narrow southwest-northeast zone, though a gradual southward propagation is expected. As such, much of the area is being considered for a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29179825 29089917 29389961 29789976 30099967 30299952 30789859 31289752 31949617 33579287 33459225 33059198 32379199 31969256 29179825 Read more