Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this afternoon through the overnight. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough over the Permian Basin pivoting east through the base of a larger scale trough forecast to shift from the Rockies east into the MS Valley. A complex surface pattern is evident with a low over OK with an accompanying trailing cold front, while a maritime boundary/residual frontal zone is draped over east TX arcing northeastward into the MS/AR/TN border region and then southeastward into the northeast Gulf of America. As the cyclone consolidates and moves eastward this afternoon into AR, the aforementioned composite boundary will advance northward as a warm front into the Mid South and towards the southern Appalachians late. The cold front is forecast to push southeast and overtake the western portion of the warm sector late today into tonight and provide a focus for numerous developing thunderstorms in the form of a squall line. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has resulted in scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly north of the warm front from AR east into TN. Southerly flow will promote poleward moist advection with 60s deg F dewpoints spreading north across the lower MS Valley into parts of the Mid South. The destabilizing warm sector will remain capped during the day before stronger large-scale ascent approaching from the west results in a extensive thunderstorm development from the Ark-La-Tex northeast into eastern AR/western TN/KY. Filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon near or on the cold front from east TX into the Mid South. Only a narrow window of opportunity for supercells will likely occur before rapid upscale growth into an extensive squall line by early evening. Strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes beginning from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line will likely remain limited but will be greatest perhaps over the southern parts of MS/AL tonight. However, if cellular structures are maintained in the large-scale thunderstorm band, an accompanying risk for tornadoes may focus there and with any bowing inflections in the line. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup with relatively modest lapse rates and moist profiles, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the squall line as it matures. Have increased damaging wind probabilities from parts of MS into AL where confidence is greatest for damaging gusts later tonight. A continued tornado/damaging wind risk will become increasingly confined to the Gulf coastal plain late tonight into the early Sunday morning hours. ..Smith/Supinie.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this afternoon through the overnight. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough over the Permian Basin pivoting east through the base of a larger scale trough forecast to shift from the Rockies east into the MS Valley. A complex surface pattern is evident with a low over OK with an accompanying trailing cold front, while a maritime boundary/residual frontal zone is draped over east TX arcing northeastward into the MS/AR/TN border region and then southeastward into the northeast Gulf of America. As the cyclone consolidates and moves eastward this afternoon into AR, the aforementioned composite boundary will advance northward as a warm front into the Mid South and towards the southern Appalachians late. The cold front is forecast to push southeast and overtake the western portion of the warm sector late today into tonight and provide a focus for numerous developing thunderstorms in the form of a squall line. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has resulted in scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly north of the warm front from AR east into TN. Southerly flow will promote poleward moist advection with 60s deg F dewpoints spreading north across the lower MS Valley into parts of the Mid South. The destabilizing warm sector will remain capped during the day before stronger large-scale ascent approaching from the west results in a extensive thunderstorm development from the Ark-La-Tex northeast into eastern AR/western TN/KY. Filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon near or on the cold front from east TX into the Mid South. Only a narrow window of opportunity for supercells will likely occur before rapid upscale growth into an extensive squall line by early evening. Strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes beginning from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line will likely remain limited but will be greatest perhaps over the southern parts of MS/AL tonight. However, if cellular structures are maintained in the large-scale thunderstorm band, an accompanying risk for tornadoes may focus there and with any bowing inflections in the line. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup with relatively modest lapse rates and moist profiles, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the squall line as it matures. Have increased damaging wind probabilities from parts of MS into AL where confidence is greatest for damaging gusts later tonight. A continued tornado/damaging wind risk will become increasingly confined to the Gulf coastal plain late tonight into the early Sunday morning hours. ..Smith/Supinie.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this afternoon through the overnight. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough over the Permian Basin pivoting east through the base of a larger scale trough forecast to shift from the Rockies east into the MS Valley. A complex surface pattern is evident with a low over OK with an accompanying trailing cold front, while a maritime boundary/residual frontal zone is draped over east TX arcing northeastward into the MS/AR/TN border region and then southeastward into the northeast Gulf of America. As the cyclone consolidates and moves eastward this afternoon into AR, the aforementioned composite boundary will advance northward as a warm front into the Mid South and towards the southern Appalachians late. The cold front is forecast to push southeast and overtake the western portion of the warm sector late today into tonight and provide a focus for numerous developing thunderstorms in the form of a squall line. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has resulted in scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly north of the warm front from AR east into TN. Southerly flow will promote poleward moist advection with 60s deg F dewpoints spreading north across the lower MS Valley into parts of the Mid South. The destabilizing warm sector will remain capped during the day before stronger large-scale ascent approaching from the west results in a extensive thunderstorm development from the Ark-La-Tex northeast into eastern AR/western TN/KY. Filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon near or on the cold front from east TX into the Mid South. Only a narrow window of opportunity for supercells will likely occur before rapid upscale growth into an extensive squall line by early evening. Strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes beginning from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line will likely remain limited but will be greatest perhaps over the southern parts of MS/AL tonight. However, if cellular structures are maintained in the large-scale thunderstorm band, an accompanying risk for tornadoes may focus there and with any bowing inflections in the line. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup with relatively modest lapse rates and moist profiles, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the squall line as it matures. Have increased damaging wind probabilities from parts of MS into AL where confidence is greatest for damaging gusts later tonight. A continued tornado/damaging wind risk will become increasingly confined to the Gulf coastal plain late tonight into the early Sunday morning hours. ..Smith/Supinie.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this afternoon through the overnight. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough over the Permian Basin pivoting east through the base of a larger scale trough forecast to shift from the Rockies east into the MS Valley. A complex surface pattern is evident with a low over OK with an accompanying trailing cold front, while a maritime boundary/residual frontal zone is draped over east TX arcing northeastward into the MS/AR/TN border region and then southeastward into the northeast Gulf of America. As the cyclone consolidates and moves eastward this afternoon into AR, the aforementioned composite boundary will advance northward as a warm front into the Mid South and towards the southern Appalachians late. The cold front is forecast to push southeast and overtake the western portion of the warm sector late today into tonight and provide a focus for numerous developing thunderstorms in the form of a squall line. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has resulted in scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly north of the warm front from AR east into TN. Southerly flow will promote poleward moist advection with 60s deg F dewpoints spreading north across the lower MS Valley into parts of the Mid South. The destabilizing warm sector will remain capped during the day before stronger large-scale ascent approaching from the west results in a extensive thunderstorm development from the Ark-La-Tex northeast into eastern AR/western TN/KY. Filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon near or on the cold front from east TX into the Mid South. Only a narrow window of opportunity for supercells will likely occur before rapid upscale growth into an extensive squall line by early evening. Strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes beginning from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line will likely remain limited but will be greatest perhaps over the southern parts of MS/AL tonight. However, if cellular structures are maintained in the large-scale thunderstorm band, an accompanying risk for tornadoes may focus there and with any bowing inflections in the line. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup with relatively modest lapse rates and moist profiles, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the squall line as it matures. Have increased damaging wind probabilities from parts of MS into AL where confidence is greatest for damaging gusts later tonight. A continued tornado/damaging wind risk will become increasingly confined to the Gulf coastal plain late tonight into the early Sunday morning hours. ..Smith/Supinie.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this afternoon through the overnight. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough over the Permian Basin pivoting east through the base of a larger scale trough forecast to shift from the Rockies east into the MS Valley. A complex surface pattern is evident with a low over OK with an accompanying trailing cold front, while a maritime boundary/residual frontal zone is draped over east TX arcing northeastward into the MS/AR/TN border region and then southeastward into the northeast Gulf of America. As the cyclone consolidates and moves eastward this afternoon into AR, the aforementioned composite boundary will advance northward as a warm front into the Mid South and towards the southern Appalachians late. The cold front is forecast to push southeast and overtake the western portion of the warm sector late today into tonight and provide a focus for numerous developing thunderstorms in the form of a squall line. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has resulted in scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly north of the warm front from AR east into TN. Southerly flow will promote poleward moist advection with 60s deg F dewpoints spreading north across the lower MS Valley into parts of the Mid South. The destabilizing warm sector will remain capped during the day before stronger large-scale ascent approaching from the west results in a extensive thunderstorm development from the Ark-La-Tex northeast into eastern AR/western TN/KY. Filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon near or on the cold front from east TX into the Mid South. Only a narrow window of opportunity for supercells will likely occur before rapid upscale growth into an extensive squall line by early evening. Strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes beginning from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line will likely remain limited but will be greatest perhaps over the southern parts of MS/AL tonight. However, if cellular structures are maintained in the large-scale thunderstorm band, an accompanying risk for tornadoes may focus there and with any bowing inflections in the line. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup with relatively modest lapse rates and moist profiles, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the squall line as it matures. Have increased damaging wind probabilities from parts of MS into AL where confidence is greatest for damaging gusts later tonight. A continued tornado/damaging wind risk will become increasingly confined to the Gulf coastal plain late tonight into the early Sunday morning hours. ..Smith/Supinie.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Another cold front will push southward late this afternoon into tonight in the Elevated area/vicinity shifting the winds to northerly with decreasing temperatures and increasing RH. No changes are necessary and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Another cold front will push southward late this afternoon into tonight in the Elevated area/vicinity shifting the winds to northerly with decreasing temperatures and increasing RH. No changes are necessary and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Another cold front will push southward late this afternoon into tonight in the Elevated area/vicinity shifting the winds to northerly with decreasing temperatures and increasing RH. No changes are necessary and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Another cold front will push southward late this afternoon into tonight in the Elevated area/vicinity shifting the winds to northerly with decreasing temperatures and increasing RH. No changes are necessary and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Another cold front will push southward late this afternoon into tonight in the Elevated area/vicinity shifting the winds to northerly with decreasing temperatures and increasing RH. No changes are necessary and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Another cold front will push southward late this afternoon into tonight in the Elevated area/vicinity shifting the winds to northerly with decreasing temperatures and increasing RH. No changes are necessary and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Another cold front will push southward late this afternoon into tonight in the Elevated area/vicinity shifting the winds to northerly with decreasing temperatures and increasing RH. No changes are necessary and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Another cold front will push southward late this afternoon into tonight in the Elevated area/vicinity shifting the winds to northerly with decreasing temperatures and increasing RH. No changes are necessary and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential. A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day, with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the Southeast this evening and overnight. Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear. Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN. Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential. A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day, with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the Southeast this evening and overnight. Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear. Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN. Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential. A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day, with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the Southeast this evening and overnight. Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear. Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN. Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential. A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day, with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the Southeast this evening and overnight. Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear. Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN. Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential. A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day, with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the Southeast this evening and overnight. Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear. Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN. Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential. A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day, with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the Southeast this evening and overnight. Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear. Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN. Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential. A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day, with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the Southeast this evening and overnight. Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear. Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN. Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025 Read more