Severe Storms

MD 0099 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 8... FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 8... Valid 152349Z - 160115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues. SUMMARY...Pre-frontal supercells may mature over the next few hours as they track across northeast LA into west-central MS. Tornado risk will increase if this occurs. Will continue to monitor for possible Tornado Watch immediately downstream into Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Over the last hour or so, pre-frontal convection has gradually increased across central into northeast LA, especially from Rapides to Caldwell Parish. This activity is not too organized at this time but there is some concern these storms may continue to mature within a strongly sheared environment, immediately ahead of the frontal convection. If so, tornado risk may increase accordingly. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32219222 33319116 32579049 31089223 32219222 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more