Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 11 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC015-021-023-035-045-047-053-055-057-063-067-077-079-081-083- 089-091-093-097-113-115-121-123-129-143-145-149-151-153-159-169- 171-193-197-199-207-213-215-217-223-225-227-231-233-235-247-249- 255-259-261-263-269-285-289-293-295-307-313-315-160840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW BIBB BLECKLEY BUTTS CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLAYTON COBB COWETA CRAWFORD CRISP DADE DEKALB DODGE DOOLY DOUGLAS FAYETTE FLOYD FULTON GILMER GORDON HARALSON HARRIS HEARD HENRY HOUSTON JASPER JONES LAMAR MACON MARION MERIWETHER MONROE MURRAY MUSCOGEE NEWTON PAULDING PEACH PICKENS PIKE POLK PULASKI ROCKDALE SCHLEY SPALDING STEWART SUMTER TALBOT TAYLOR TROUP TWIGGS Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MSY TO 25 W SEM TO 20 SW GAD TO 15 WSW CHA. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-035-037-039- 041-047-051-053-055-081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-117-121- 123-129-131-160840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA ETOWAH LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-160840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0103 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10... FOR CENTRAL GULF STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 0103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...Central Gulf States Concerning...Tornado Watch 10... Valid 160540Z - 160745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will continue shifting east across the central Gulf States. Damaging winds can be expected, along with a risk for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Mature squall line has developed ahead of the cold front and the leading edge of this activity currently extends from middle TN-northwest AL-southern MS-southeast LA. Cold front appears to be undercutting much of this QLCS, especially from MS, AL, into TN. Pre-squall line supercells have struggled to organize, thus the predominant severe mode has been more linear in nature, and this is expected given the strongly forced boundary. While QLCS will remain the primary mode, scattered weak showers continue to develop ahead of the line across southeast LA/southeast MS into southern AL. Boundary layer is a bit more unstable at these lower latitudes and there is some concern that a few discrete supercells may ultimately emerge along this corridor. If not, damaging winds should be expected along the QLCS as it propagates steadily east ahead of the front. ..Darrow.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30589094 32508860 34788731 34428641 32068745 30398955 30589094 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more